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Happy Monday, RotoBallers! As a washed baseball player myself, it's simply not enough to get my fix in a men's league, which opens up tonight. I'm stoked to be back to provide some MLB picks again this year. We had a rough regular season in the articles in 2022 but bounced back significantly, going 17-6-4 en route to +6.71 units in the postseason. Let's hope that postseason success rolls into 2023.
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If you're new or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting on MLB baseball games for five years now, and this is my third MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and moneylines, among many other things! In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Monday, May 22, 2023. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2023 MLB Betting Picks
2023 Regular Season: 24-20 (-1.59 units)
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Red Sox @ Angels
O/U: 9.5 | Moneyline: LAA -110
BOS: Tanner Houck | LAA: Jaime Barria
It seems we've been caught in the "1-1" trap that I fell into last year. We'll look to get it back this evening by hanging out west, starting with the Red Sox and Angels series in Anaheim.
The Red Sox will be sending Tanner Houck (3-3, 5.48 ERA) to the mound. Houck's 2023 doesn't seem to be great on the surface, but according to FanGraphs, he's been a bit unlucky. His 3.97 xERA and 3.96 xFIP point to some positive regression, and my model projecting him to a 4.04 SIERA in this one sees to this point. The Angels project poorly against Houck, with a .296 projected wOBA and 28.23% hard contact rate.
Houck will likely be matched up with Jaime Barria of the Angels. Barria (1-0, 1.96 ERA) would be making his first start of the season but is the projected starter for the Angels at this time. His 1.96 ERA is impressive, though he is due for some regression with his 3.15 xERA and 3.77 xFIP. He projects to a 4.03 SIERA against a Red Sox lineup with a relatively impressive .374 projected wOBA, but just a 25.73% hard contact rate.
While the Red Sox's wOBA is slightly concerning, I think we're getting really good value on the under here, as long as it's Barria starting for LA. We can get that at -120 on DraftKings here.
Pick: Under 9.5 (-120), DraftKings Sportsbook, 1.2 units to win 1 unit.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Athletics @ Mariners
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: SEA -305
OAK: Kyle Muller | SEA: Luis Castillo
I'll finish the night up by going after Kyle Muller and the Triple-As. We hardly ever see moneylines higher than -300 in MLB, but here we are.
The A's will be sending Kyle Muller (1-3, 7.71 ERA) to the mound tonight. Muller has somehow regressed across his last three starts, allowing a 2.03 WHIP and 10.80 ERA. Somehow, the A's have won two of those three starts. I don't see that happening today, as he projects to a 5.15 SIERA against a Mariners lineup that projects to a .334 wOBA and a massive 48.73% hard contact rate.
The Mariners will send Luis Castillo (2-2, 3.31 ERA) to the mound. Castillo, like Muller, has also seemed to regress across his last three starts. The Mariners have lost all three of those starts as Castillo struggled with a 1.29 WHIP and 6.35 ERA. He projects to a good outing today though, with a 3.32 SIERA and 30.93% strikeout rate against the A's here. While the A's bring in a solid 32.91% projected hard contact rate into this one, the .296 wOBA is just too low to be inspired.
It's a chalky pick, I know, but I feel like it's the right pick here. We can get the Mariners' run line at -140 here, and I have no problem grabbing it at that price.
Pick: Mariners -1.5 (-140), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1.40 units to win 1 unit.
Good luck, RotoBallers, and follow my Twitter for more plays!
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