The Cut List - Time to Let Go? Week 3

Jamie's list of busts, overvalued and injured players who fantasy baseball managers may want to consider cutting and dropping for Week 3 of the 2023 MLB season.

Welcome back to a new season of The Cut List. This is our weekly article looking at players who fantasy managers might be considering cutting from their teams and struggling players who need a closer look. We'll look at players who are worthy of a drop, players who are worth monitoring for replacing, and someone on the hot seat who is worth holding on to... for now.

After little more than a week of the season, we shouldn't be looking to drop players based solely on performance. If a player starts the year going 4-for-25, that's not enough to dump him. If he did it in July, would you even notice? But some players are worthy of dropping or, at the very least, under consideration of being dumped from your fantasy teams for other reasons.

Those of you experienced Cut List readers will know I'm a strong advocate for not making knee-jerk reactions. A bad week or two shouldn't be a reason to push the panic button and dump someone, especially this early in the season. As the year progresses, there will be stronger cases to drop underperforming players. If there's ever someone you want me to take a look at, drop their name on Reddit or reach out to me on Twitter (@Baseball_Jimbo), and maybe you'll see them included next week. All stats and rostered rates (taken from Yahoo!) reflect when this piece was written.

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Worth Dropping and Replacing?

Luis Urias - 2B/3B/SS, Milwaukee Brewers - 34% rostered

Urias entered 2023 on the back of a down year, after hitting .239/.335/.404 with 16 homers, 47 RBI, 54 runs and one stolen bases (119 games) in 2022. Hopes of a bounceback were dashed before we even turned the calendars over to April after Urias suffered a hamstring strain in his season debut and is set to miss 6-8 weeks.

We're now faced with Urias possibly missing a third of the season and after struggling last year, it's difficult to justify keeping Urias on your rosters. His multi-position eligibility is nice in deeper leagues but he still needs to be productive to warrant being rostered and he won't have the chance to do that for many weeks now.

Verdict: If you're in a deeper league and have large benches, multiple IL spots etc and can keep Urias without leaving your lineups short, then by all means stash him. Without that luxury, I have no issue dropping him to waivers.

CJ Abrams - 2B/SS, Washington Nationals - 28% rostered

Abrams was one of the players who went to the Nationals in the Juan Soto trade and expectations were high on the youngster. He's had limited exposure to the Minor Leagues, playing just 114 games and now has 98 MLB games under his belt. He certainly looks like he'll get a good look for the Nationals as their shortstop this year but it's been an ominous start.

I'm not overly concerned by any struggles at the plate, as he hit .246/.280/.324 last year and his fantasy value is in his legs rather than any power. And he had a Minor League slash line of .331/.385/.511 so his early season .269/.367/.462 line with no homers, three RBI, three runs and no stolen bases isn't the problem. The concern comes from his struggles in the field as he has already committed three errors, including the first of the season.

E6

The first error of the 2023 season goes to CJ Abrams pic.twitter.com/NK7tzaEpXt

— MLB Errors (@mlberrors) March 30, 2023

While errors aren't scored in fantasy leagues (except in niche leagues), if they continue at this rate, Abrams might not have a regular starting role in the Majors for a large part of the season. He also had 25 errors in 96 games at shortstop in the Minors and 13 in 75 games at the position in the Majors last year. This is a case where a non-fantasy issue could impact fantasy value.

Verdict: It behooves the Nationals to keep Abrams as their everyday shortstop if they do see him there in the future. He's still only 22 years old and could have a long and productive career. But if his struggles in the field continue, they might move him down to Triple-A to work on things defensively out of the spotlight. Abrams is only a deeper league middle infielder and in all but deep redraft leagues, he's droppable. With stolen bases well up this year, his biggest asset isn't so much of a big boost either.

Darick Hall - 1B, Philadelphia Phillies, 16% rostered

Hall was a popular late-round sleeper this offseason with Bryce Harper set to miss the start of the season as he recovers from elbow surgery. Then, Rhys Hoskins suffered a torn ACL at the end of Spring and it looked set for Hall to be an almost everyday player in what should be a potent lineup.

It wasn't the best start to the year for Hall as he was hitting .222/.263/.278 with just a solitary RBI and one run (19 plate appearances) on his ledger. That's set to be all he tallies for a while as a thumb injury suffered earlier this week sliding into second base has resulted in a torn ligament. It transpires that the injury requires surgery and Hall is now set to miss multiple weeks.

Darick Hall will have surgery — probably Wednesday. Torn ligament in his right thumb. Looking at a few months down.

— Matt Gelb (@MattGelb) April 7, 2023

Verdict: Hall wasn't more than a deeper league option as he was only first-base eligible in some formats or DH only in many others. Like Urias, unless you can easily stash him on your IL then I'd be actively looking to replace him on your fantasy teams.

Hold For Now

Max Muncy - 2B/3B, Los Angeles Dodgers - 91% rostered

Muncy had his worst full season with the Dodgers in 2022, hitting .196/.329/.384 with 21 homers, 69 RBI, 69 runs and two stolen bases (136 games). But it was widely known he wasn't fully healthy having opted not to have surgery on his torn UCL in the offseason and instead rested and rehabbed it. And that looked like a shrewd move as the season wore on if we compare his first and second halves.

In the early goings this year, Muncy is hitting .129/.270/.226 with one homer, two RBI, six runs and no steals (eight games). He also missed a game with a groin injury after being struck by a ball in a rather sensitive area, but was back in the lineup and doesn't seem to have any lingering effects from it.

Last year's second half should hopefully give fantasy managers reason to believe he is healthy and this is just a slow start. Providing that is the case, there's no reason to panic at this stage as Muncy will go through periods like this throughout the season. Even striking out in all five plate appearances in his first game of 2023 shouldn't have come as a huge shock.

Brandon Drury - 1B/2B/3B, Los Angeles Angels - 78% rostered

It was an inauspicious start to the season for Drury, with the Angels opting to deploy a platoon between him and Jake Lamb at first base during the first four games of the season. Then came Anthony Rendon's suspension for his altercation with a fan which led to the Angels rejigging their infield for the series against the Mariners.

Video shows Angels 3B Anthony Rendon in an altercation with a fan at the Oakland Coliseum.

The Angels gave no comment, but said Rendon will be available to comment before tomorrow's game, per @SamBlum3.

🎥 @PetrosAndMoneypic.twitter.com/qaN7QWx4PY

— The Athletic MLB (@TheAthleticMLB) March 31, 2023

During Rendon's four-game suspension, Drury started every game at second base, Lamb played first base with Luis Rengifo, Gio Urshela and David Fletcher combining to fill out the left side of the infield. Rendon was first eligible to return on Saturday and slotted straight back into the cleanup spot with Drury resigned to the bench and Lamb starting at first base (against rightie Jose Berrios).

Then we have to factor in that Jared Walsh is due back at some point as he continues to recover from headaches and insomnia and although there is no timetable for a return, he has started taking swings and working on a return. That could further muddy Drury's playing time and could see Drury enter a platoon at first base with Walsh, moving to second base on occasion like we've been seeing.

Drury had a breakout last season, hitting .274/.335/.520 with 20 homers, 59 RBI, 62 runs and two steals in 92 games with the Reds but his numbers dropped following his trade to the Padres, with Drury hitting .238/.290/.435 with eight homers, 28 RBI, 25 runs and no stolen bases in 46 games with San Diego.

And he hasn't got off to a hot start this year, hitting .160/.154/.240 with just two RBI to his name through his first seven games (26 plate appearances). We still need more clarity to ascertain what the Angels will be doing longer-term with the infield and I'm not dropping Drury based on a few games of sub-standard production. But he's certainly someone to monitor over the next week or so.

Daniel Bard - RP, Colorado Rockies - 78% rostered

This one doesn't require much analysis and I'm certainly not going to try and delve into Bard's issues as I'm nowhere near qualified to do so. Bard started the season on the IL due to anxiety but he's remained with the team and has thrown bullpen sessions this week so fingers crossed he works his way through the problems and can return to the mound soon.

Bard had an outstanding season in 2022 with a 6-4 W-L record, 1.79 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 69 Ks and 34 saves (60.1 IP). There's no reason to believe he'll repeat his sub-2.00 ERA considering his 3.30 xFIP and 3.17 SIERA, but assuming his absence isn't long-term, Bard is worth stashing on your rosters especially considering the volatility and unreliability in getting saves we're seeing in the opening week of the season.

Oscar Gonzalez - OF, Cleveland Guardians - 61% rostered

After hitting 31 homers in the Minors in 2021, Gonzalez continued his power display to begin 2022 with another nine home runs in 41 games at Triple-A and Cleveland called him up to the Majors where he certainly held his own. Despite missing time with an intercostal strain, Gonzalez hit .296/.327/.461 with 11 homers, 43 RBI, 39 runs and one stolen base in 91 games with the Guardians.

The expectation was that Gonzalez would be the Guardians everyday right fielder but it hasn't quite started out that way. In fact, the early signs are that he could actually be in a 'soft-platoon' with Will Brennan. In an interesting quirk, during the Guardians first nine games, they have faced only four right-handed starting pitchers with Gonzalez starting just two of those games.

He has started every game against left-handed pitchers but with Steven Kwan locked in as the lead-off hitter and everyday left-fielder and Myles Straw settled in center field, Gonzalez could see a drop in his playing time if this is how things continue to play out in the coming weeks. If we look at how Gonzalez fared against lefties and righties last season, any platoon seems to be an odd decision.

With the DH spot being rotated between Josh Bell, Josh Naylor and Jose Ramirez, there's little room for Gonzalez to find more at-bats if he isn't starting in right field every day so this is certainly something to monitor. He hasn't helped his cause hitting .167/.167/.233 with just three runs so far (30 plate appearances) but it's too early to worry about that and the focus should be on his playing time over the next fortnight.

Jack Flaherty - SP, St Louis Cardinals - 52% rostered

Sometimes, the analysis is strikingly simple. In Flaherty's case, all you need to do is look at his numbers and marvel at his walk-rate. Holy walks, Batman! Flaherty has issued 13 walks in 10.0 IP so far. He also has a 1.80 ERA to go with it and it's not outlandish to say those two things aren't sustainable.

With a pitch chart resembling a Jackson Pollock painting, Flaherty has had no control but has been able to limit the damage. His 7.51 xFIP and 8.61 SIERA suggest that won't last long. Flaherty has had trouble staying healthy and the lack of consistently taking the mound might be a factor but he 'only' walked seven batters in 19.2 IP during Spring.

This will go either two ways for Flaherty. He'll cut down the walks to a manageable amount and be a solid fantasy option (as long as he's healthy). Or, the walks will being to bite him on the backside and Flaherty will be consigned to waivers in all leagues.

On the Hot Seat

Chris Bassitt - SP, Toronto Blue Jays - 79% rostered

In a story that began during Spring Training and has continued into the Regular Season, Bassitt hasn't looked like himself and that's largely due to his diminished velocity. Let's begin by looking at the numbers, focusing on Bassitt's main pitch, the sinker, which he threw 33.5% of the time last year.

In Spring, Bassitt's sinker averaged 90.4 MPH. After being asked about it early in Spring, Bassitt told reporters he wasn't throwing at maximum effort yet, which makes sense. Then came his first start of the Regular Season against the Cardinals and we can see the numbers below.

Bassitt's velocity was significantly down from last year with the sinker averaging 91.1 MPH. A bit better than in Spring but still way down on last year's average (92.8 MPH). He faced 19 batters, gave up ten hits (four of which were homers) and left after 3.1 IP without a strikeout or a walk, allowing nine earned runs. Then came his second start on Friday against the Angels.

The velocity was still down but Bassitt managed to put together a quality start giving up three runs (two earned) on two hits through 6.0 IP while striking out five. The real concern is the five walks he also allowed, something he hasn't done since April 12th, 2021. If we go back and look at last year, it was a similar story with Bassitt's velocity.

In Bassitt's final Spring start of 2022, his sinker averaged 90.3 MPH and that jumped up to 92.5 MPH in his first Regular Season start. The fact he was able to immediately jump it up 2.2 MPH last year bodes well but the early signs this year aren't as promising. In an interesting wrinkle to this story, this doesn't seem to be an exclusive problem to Bassitt as other Blue Jays starters have experienced a similar thing.

After two starts, Alek Manoah's fastball is 0.9 MPH slower than last year and Kevin Gausman's fastball is 2.1 MPH slower than last year. The difference right now is Manoah (4.35 ERA with seven scoreless innings in his second start) and Gausman (0.00 ERA) have found success in the early going while Bassitt is sitting on a 10.61 ERA.

There's been no suggestion of an injury and this does look like a veteran pitcher still easing into the season and building himself up gradually. But the fact he hasn't been able to jump up his velocity to last year's levels as easily as he might have suggested he could does level a small red flag fluttering beside his fantasy outlook.

Even if Bassitt doesn't get back to throwing as fast as last year, he could still have a successful campaign but I want to see at least a handful of starts before I make a decision on what to do with him. Friday was a step in the right direction but still gives us pause to declare him perfectly fine.

Reddit Requests

As in previous years, we're keen to hear who you want us to analyze. If there is anyone who you want to include here on next week's Cut List, drop their names on the Reddit thread and there's a good chance they will feature. Alternatively, you can reach out to me on Twitter and we'll endeavor to cover as many requests as we can each week.

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