RADIO
As we head into Week 12, this NFL season continues to sort itself out on a weekly basis. The best teams have started to separate themselves at the top of each conference, and everyone else is fighting for positioning behind them. It's still tough to figure some teams out, as they will lay an egg one week while looking like world beaters the next. However, that's why it's important to stay focused and keep pushing towards the next week.
We are so close, and the hooks are crushing. We went 2-3 again last week, and we are down 11.37 units heading into Week 12. Despite trailing the entire game, Justin Jefferson saw little to no receiving work. Nick Chubb had the least efficient game of his career while Saquon Barkley and the New York Giants were behind too fast for him to run against a soft run defense. We had easy cashes on Justin Fields and Chris Olave, but we’re just so close to some big weeks if the ball bounces our way just once or twice.
Before we get into this week’s picks, I just had one more piece of information to add for those that may be new here. These picks are not in any sort of order. I try to give you my confidence level in the pick in the analysis, but I also have a belief in every pick I put out that they will hit. Otherwise, I wouldn’t be wasting your time by making the play at all.
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NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 12
O4.5 Receptions
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Odds: +105
San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey has seen spotty usage since being traded on a Thursday night a few weeks ago, but he has remained a consistent part of the team’s passing attack. In three full games with the team, he has seen at least six targets in each game, and he’s caught seven or more passes in two of those three, despite those two games being large blowouts.
Earlier this season, McCaffrey caught just two passes against the New Orleans Saints, but he had 25 carries in the team’s win. From what we’ve seen early on during his tenure with the 49ers, he’s going to be used more often in the receiving game than he is in the running game in order to keep him healthy for a potential playoff run. The team still wants to get him double-digit touches every game, and I think they do that but tossing him passes out of the backfield.
O80.5 Receiving Yards
Sportsbook: FanDuel
Odds: -114
Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce remains one of the most consistent players in the NFL. Through 10 games this season, he has 855 yards and 11 touchdowns on 69 receptions. He’s gone over this receiving mark in seven of his 10 games, including each of his last five. He’s also seen at least seven targets in every game this season. Wideout JuJu Smith-Schuster is expected to return to the lineup this week, but that shouldn’t affect the workload that Kelce sees.
The Rams have done well against opposing TE1s this season, as they’re only allowing an average of 28.1 yards per game, but they haven’t faced Kelce yet this season. While Kelce is getting long in the tooth, he still remains one of the most unstoppable players in the league when he’s in sync with his quarterback. The Chiefs should also have plenty of offensive drives with the limited offense the Rams will likely be trotting out this week.
O73.5 Rushing Yards
Sportsbook: Barstool Sportsbook
Odds: -115
Since taking over as the full-time starter, Seattle Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker III had fewer than 50 rushing yards in a game two weeks ago against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but he’s lined up for a great bounceback game against the Las Vegas Raiders this week. The Raiders rank 22nd by DVOA against the run, and they have gotten lit up by running backs recently. Prior to last week against the Denver Broncos, they had given up over 100 total yards to four straight running backs, including 90 or more rushing yards alone.
Walker has hit this number four times this season, and they’ve all been in his last six games. This offense likes to get a lead, and they want to run through Walker when they get out in front. This Raiders’ team has been inept on both sides of the ball, and, against a well-coached team like the Seahawks, it could be a game where Walker and the offense just methodically work their way down the field with regularity.
DeAndre Hopkins
O80.5 Receiving Yards
Sportsbook: PointsBet
Odds: -120
This line feels like a trap, but I’m playing it anyway. Since returning from his suspension, Arizona Cardinals wideout DeAndre Hopkins has hit this line in four out of his five games, and those four haven’t been particularly close, even when he played two games with backup quarterback Colt McCoy at the helm. He’s gone for 90 or more yards in those four contests, and he now gets a defense that has struggled to contain opposing WR1s this year.
Last week, against the Chiefs, they gave up over 120 yards to the team’s top two wideouts, along with 115 yards to Kelce. Multiple wideouts have been able to have big games against them this year, especially with offseason addition J.C. Jackson out of the lineup. Hopkins is the focal point of this offensive passing game, so I expect him to see a heavy workload again this week. Additionally, with wideout Rondale Moore (groin) out and fellow wideout Greg Dortch (thumb) questionable, that could further increase his workload.
Jaylen Waddle
O68.5 Receiving Yards
Sportsbook: FanDuel
Odds: -114
The books are taunting us with this line after two weeks ago, and we’re going after it again. Waddle missed this line by three measly yards after he was pulled early in the fourth quarter with the team leading by a wide margin. That is a possibility this week, but this number is still too low with how talented Waddle and this offense are. He’s still gone over this number in seven games this season, including all but one, last week, of the games where Tua Tagovailoa started and finished the game.
The Houston Texans are a bad football team right now. They’re 25th by DVOA against the pass and 29th by DVOA overall on defense. Waddle is too explosive and too integral to the offense to ignore this low of a line in a great matchup. Throw in the fact that running back Raheem Mostert is banged up heading into this week, and that could result in more passing work for Waddle here. I like this matchup.
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