RADIO
Spencer Aguiar digs into the first-round leader market at the Shriners Children's Open, providing some of his favorite targets on the slate.
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Make sure to follow me on Twitter @Teeoffsports to get my updated picks as the tournament progresses, and if you don't have that as one of your social media platforms, here is a link for my betting card weekly. My free DFS column, which includes my top plays for the week and a list of options I will be fading, can be found here. And if you ever have any questions about a particular bet, player in the field or anything golf-related, be sure to contact me on Twitter.
First-Round Leader Options To Consider:
Mito Pereira 70/1 (Bet365)
There are a couple of players on this first-round leader card I considered in the outright market because of how they graded from a statistical perspective, but I ultimately left them off since their "choke equity" wasn't something I could correctly incorporate into my model. That doesn't mean I wouldn't still consider an option like Mito Pereira, Chris Kirk or Brian Harman in all sectors, although I prefer attacking them in this market, supplying us the upside we are looking for but giving it over a single day of golf versus a four-round affair.
We haven't seen many high-end performances from Pereira since his implosion on 18 at the PGA Championship, but I am also not sure the results tell the complete story of the statistical data. Sure, it hasn't always been pretty from round to round, but the 27-year-old ranks eighth in my model from a two-year running sample size and jumps to fourth when we condense the numbers down to only the past 24 rounds. It feels like things might be starting to come around again for the supremely talented ball-striker, and I will look to jump ahead of that potential in the first-round leader market.
Keith Mitchell 70/1 (Bet365)
What screams first-round leader more than zero made cuts at TPC Summerlin in four attempts? The course history advocates will have a field day with this one since we need Keith Mitchell to do something at the track he hasn't discovered in his career, but I am a believer in the long-term metrics telling a better story, especially when we can take a chance for a single day on Thursday.
Mitchell ranks first in this field off the tee over his past 24 rounds, and the sixth-place grade he encounters when condensing the venue down to look at the five most critical scoring chances only emphasizes the upside. I don't have a good answer for why the American has failed to uncover his form when playing out in Vegas, but I will ignore the results and focus on the current stature of his game, which gives us a pro with a stratospheric upside.
Brendon Todd 100/1 (FanDuel)
I am trying to find outlier choices for readers to consider in every market. Whether that be a long-shot that you can take advantage of as an outright, or a player like Brendon Todd, who might go off as under one percent owned on DraftKings, the goal is always to provide contrarian outlooks to deploy.
When I ran this course to include an equal dispersion of TPC statistics and Bentgrass putting, Todd graded as the 11th most likely performer to find success at the venue. The critical scoring holes didn't generate quite the same optimism from a modeling perspective, but we always want to find high-end factors to someone's game, especially when we can try to take advantage of it over a single round. The other 13 holes looked magnificent for the American, so if we can get an aberrational scoring day elsewhere, I wouldn't discount Todd's ability to get hot with the putter.
J.T. Poston 65/1 (DraftKings)
If at first you don't succeed, try, try again. That is my motto after being burned by J.T. Poston at the Sanderson Farms last week.
I realize I start to sound like a broken record defending Poston's two-day meltdown at the Country Club of Jackson, but everything that could have gone wrong for him did. Not only did the American post a large score early, but he couldn't make a putt on Thursday, eventually derailing his Friday round that did get off to a hot start but couldn't be maintained because of the chances he had to take to get himself back into contention. The data still looks stout inside my model, and the critical scoring holes have him ranked seventh.
Chris Kirk 80/1 (FanDuel)
The current metrics for Chris Kirk over the past few months have gone south, but the 27-spot improvement from his baseline to his expectation on Bentgrass greens has me encouraged that he might be able to find something with the flat stick to move himself up the leaderboard.
Kirk ranks 11th in the field for my weighted tee-to-green category, which was a way to recreate the scoring dispersion outlooks for the entire contest, and he also placed 22 spots better when highlighting weighted proximity - a complete look at all approach shots hit at the venue over the past five years.
Brian Harman 60/1 (FanDuel)
I could look if I genuinely wanted an answer, but I feel like I have bet Brian Harman as an outright or first-round leader more than any golfer on tour. My model tends to love his potential fit for most facilities that aren't dominated by distance-heavy totals, and the same sentiment can be said about the Georgia Bulldog this week.
Harman ranks second in my model at TPC courses over the past year, is inside the top 20 at the critical scoring chances to mimic TPC Summerlin and also plays the 420-492-yard par-fours as one of the top 30 golfers. Add that to his short game and putting prowess, and you have a player with a large ceiling during any given round of golf.
Aaron Wise 40/1 (FanDuel)
It is Aaron Wise week at the Shriners Open. I plan to have the most exposure to Wise of any golfer on the board in DFS, and I am attempting to find as many paths as I can to acquire shares of him in various markets.
I've alluded to how Wise's home venue is TPC Summerlin numerous times this week, but I don't want that notion to get lost in translation for why I am making this bet. Sure, it won't hurt the situation that he knows the track and is one of the only golfers that should have experience on these new fairways and greens, but it has more to do with the overall profile of a golfer that ideally suits what we want out of wagers this weekend in my backyard.
Official Card
| Odds | Risk | Win | |
| Mito Pereira | 70 | 0.045 | 3.15 |
| Keith Mitchell | 70 | 0.045 | 3.15 |
| Brendon Todd | 100 | 0.03 | 3 |
| J.T. Poston | 65 | 0.04 | 2.6 |
| Chris Kirk | 80 | 0.03 | 2.4 |
| Brian Harman | 60 | 0.05 | 3 |
| Aaron Wise | 40 | 0.07 | 2.8 |
2022 Top Head-to-Head Record (11-5-0)
+6.96 Units Year-To-Date From Premium H2H Bets
|
Tournament
|
H2H Bet
|
Risk Units | W | L | T | TP | Percentage | Profit/Loss |
| 21.73 | 11 | 5 | 0 | 16 | 68.75% | 6.96 | ||
| BMW Championship | Taylor Pendrith -110 over J.T. Poston | 1.44 | 1 | 1 | 1.31 | |||
| Rocket Mortgage | Cameron Davis -120 over Kevin Kisner | 1.44 | 1 | 1 | 1.2 | |||
| Open Championship | Tommy Fleetwood -118 over Tyrrell Hatton | 1.30 | 1 | 1 | 1.1 | |||
| Travelers | Brendan Steele -115 over Denny McCarthy | 1.45 | 1 | 1 | 1.26 | |||
| U.S. Open | Aaron Wise -105 over Davis Riley | 1.40 | 1 | 1 | 1.33 | |||
| RBC Canadian Open | Aaron Rai -112 over Hank Lebioda | 1.40 | 1 | 1 | 1.25 | |||
| Memorial | Sungjae Im -136 over Davis Riley | 1.36 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| PGA Championship | Chris Kirk -120 over Kevin Kisner | 1.44 | 1 | 1 | 1.36 | |||
| Byron Nelson | Patton Kizzire -110 over Kevin Kisner | 1.40 | 1 | 1 | 1.27 | |||
| RBC Heritage | Ian Poulter -110 over Cameron Young | 1.30 | 1 | 1 | -1.3 | |||
| Valero | Keegan Bradley -110 over Jason Day | 1.30 | 1 | 1 | 1.18 | |||
| Valero | Sahith Theegala +102 over Ryan Palmer | 1.30 | 1 | 1 | -1.3 | |||
| API | Sergio Garcia -110 over Tommy Fleetwood | 1.30 | 1 | 1 | -1.3 | |||
| Honda Classic | Jhonattan Vegas -115 over Mito Periera | 1.30 | 1 | 1 | -1.3 | |||
| Genesis | Cameron Smith -115 over Viktor Hovland | 1.35 | 1 | 1 | -1.35 | |||
| Waste Management | Keegan Bradley +100 over Pat Perez | 1.25 | 1 | 1 | 1.25 |
Year-To-Date Pre-Tournament Head-To-Head Results (44-25-3)
+15.64 Units Year-To-Date From Pre-Tournament H2H Bets
|
Tournament
|
H2H Bet
|
Risk Units | W | L | T | TP | Percentage | Profit/Loss |
| 81.30 | 44 | 25 | 3 | 69 | 63.77% | 15.64 | ||
| Sanderson Farms | Dean Burmester -120 over Aaron Rai | 1.20 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Fortinet Championship | Rickie Fowler -110 over Joel Dahmen | 1.10 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Fortinet Championship | Tom Hoge -120 over Chez Reavie | 1.20 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Fortinet Championship | Patrick Rodgers -120 over Brendon Todd | 1.20 | 1 | 1 | -1.2 | |||
| Fortinet Championship | Gary Woodland -120 over Matt Kuchar | 1.20 | 1 | 1 | -1.2 | |||
| Fortinet Championship | Brendan Steele -127 over Denny McCarthy | 1.27 | 1 | 1 | -1.27 | |||
| Tour Championship | Billy Horschel -115 over Brian Harman | 1.15 | 1 | 0 | ||||
| BMW Championship | Shane Lowry +100 over Max Homa | 1.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| BMW Championship | Sungjae Im -120 over Collin Morikawa | 1.20 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| BMW Championship | Emiliano Grillo -110 over Denny McCarthy | 1.10 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| BMW Championship | Rory McIlroy -120 over Patrick Cantlay | 1.20 | 1 | 1 | -1.2 | |||
| St. Jude | Will Zalatoris -115 over Cameron Young | 1.15 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| St. Jude | Shane Lowry -120 over Tyrrell Hatton | 1.20 | 1 | 1 | -1.2 | |||
| St. Jude | Scottie Scheffler -120 over Justin Thomas | 1.20 | 1 | 1 | -1.2 | |||
|
Wyndham Championship
|
Brian Harman -110 over Denny McCarthy | 1.10 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Rocket Mortgage | Adam Hadwin +100 over Denny McCarthy | 1.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Open Championship | Tony Finau -125 over Louis Oosthuizen | 1.25 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Open Championship | Tiger Woods +145 over Bryson DeChambeau | 1.00 | 1 | 1 | -1 | |||
| Travelers | Aaron Wise -105 over Davis Riley | 1.05 | 1 | 1 | -1.05 | |||
| U.S. Open | Aaron Wise -105 over Cameron Young | 1.05 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| U.S. Open | Xander Schauffele -110 over Cameron Smith | 1.10 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| U.S. Open | Daniel Berger -110 over Billy Horschel | 1.10 | 1 | 1 | -1.1 | |||
| U.S. Open | Luke List -110 over K.H. Lee | 1.10 | 1 | 1 | -1.1 | |||
| Memorial | Rickie Fowler -110 over Stewart Cink | 1.10 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Charles Schwab | Viktor Hovland -120 over Will Zalatoris | 1.20 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| PGA Championship | Tommy Fleetwood -120 over Maverick McNealy | 1.20 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| PGA Championship | Webb Simpson -110 over Marc Leishman | 1.10 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| PGA Championship | Rory McIlroy -135 over Viktor Hovland | 1.35 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| PGA Championship | Aaron Wise -110 over Jhonatthan Vegas | 1.10 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Byron Nelson | Charles Howell III -120 over Nick Taylor | 1.20 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Byron Nelson | Si Woo Kim -120 over Christian Bezuidenhout | 1.20 | 1 | 1 | -1.2 | |||
| Wells Fargo | Cameron Davis -120 over Dylan Frittelli | 1.20 | 1 | 1 | -1.2 | |||
| Mexico Open | Charles Howell +100 over Brendon Todd | 1.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Mexico Open | Anirban Lahiri -115 over Andrew Putnam | 1.15 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Mexico Open | Alex Smalley -115 over Greyson Sigg | 1.15 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Mexico Open | Patrick Rodgers -110 over David Lipsky | 1.10 | 1 | 1 | -1.1 | |||
| RBC Heritage | Tommy Fleetwood +100 over Jason Kokrak | 1.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| RBC Heritage | Tom Hoge -120 over Mito Pereira | 1.20 | 1 | 1 | -1.2 | |||
| RBC Heritage | Charles Howell III -110 over Mackenzie Hughes | 1.10 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| RBC Heritage | Erik Van Rooyen -110 over Dylan Frittelli | 1.10 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Masters | Rory Group Winner +330 | 0.35 | 1 | 1 | 1.16 | |||
| Masters | Rory McIlroy -120 over Collin Morikawa | 1.20 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Masters | Cam Young -110 over Luke List | 1.10 | 1 | 1 | -1.1 | |||
| Masters | Tommy Fleetwood -110 over Bubba Watson | 1.10 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Valero | Jordan Spieth -102 over Hideki Matsuyama | 1.02 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Valspar | Joel Dahmen -112 over CT Pan | 1.12 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Valspar | Jason Kokrak -118 over Gary Woodland | 1.18 | 1 | 1 | -1.18 | |||
| Valspar | Alex Noren -120 over Jason Day | 1.20 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Valspar | Mito Periera -120 over Francesco Molianri | 1.20 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Valspar | Pat Perez -120 over Carlos Ortiz | 1.20 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Players | Daniel Berger -120 over Cameron Smith | 1.20 | 1 | 1 | -1.2 | |||
| Players | Brendon Todd -115 over Troy Merritt | 1.15 | 1 | 1 | -1.15 | |||
| Players | Paul Casey -110 over Gary Woodland | 1.10 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Players | Russell Henley -110 over Max Homa | 1.10 | 1 | 0 | ||||
| API | Cam Young -120 over Tom Hoge | 1.20 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| API | Sahith Theegala -110 over Andrew Putnam | 1.10 | 1 | 1 | -1.1 | |||
| Honda Classic | Sepp Straka -127 over Dylan Frittelli | 1.27 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Genesis | Jordan Spieth -105 over Brooks Koepka | 1.05 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Genesis | Dustin Johnson -125 over Collin Morikawa | 1.25 | 1 | 1 | -1.25 | |||
| Genesis | Rory McIlroy -115 over Collin Morikawa | 1.15 | 1 | 1 | -1.15 | |||
| Genesis | Sahith Theegala -120 over Francesco Molinari | 1.20 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Waste Management | Luke List -115 over Tony Finau | 1.15 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Farmers Insurance | Talor Gooch -110 over Corey Conners | 1.10 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| American Express | K.H. Lee -105 over Michael Thompson | 1.05 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| American Express | Gary Woodland -115 over Cameron Champ | 1.15 | 1 | 0 | ||||
| Sony | Billy Horschel +110 over Seamus Power | 1.00 | 1 | 1 | -1 | |||
| Sony | Si Woo Kim +100 over Seamus Power | 1.00 | 1 | 1 | -1 | |||
| Sentry | Patrick Cantlay -108 over Viktor Hovland | 1.08 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Sentry | Jon Rahm -127 over Viktor Hovland | 1.27 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Sentry | Justin Thomas -132 over Viktor Hovland | 1.32 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Sentry | Bryson DeChambeau -112 over Collin Morikawa | 1.12 | 1 | 1 | -1.12 | |||
| Sentry | Jordan Spieth -105 over Hideki Matsuyama | 1.05 | 1 | 1 | -1.05 |
2022 In-Tournament Head-to-Head Record (69-38-10)
+27.03 Units Year-To-Date From Premium In-Tournament H2H Bets
|
Tournament
|
H2H Bet
|
Risk Units | W | L | T | TP | Percentage | Profit/Loss |
| 132.71 | 69 | 38 | 10 | 105 | 65.71% | 27.03 | ||
| Sanderson Farms | Sam Burns -125 over Denny McCarthy | 1.25 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Sanderson Farms | Nick Hardy -118 over S.H. Kim | 1.18 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Sanderson Farms | Kevin Streelman -110 over Nick Taylor (R3) | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | -1.1 | |||
| Sanderson Farms | Stephan Jaeger -105 over Stewart Cink (R2) | 1.05 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| Sanderson Farms | Chesson Hadley -120 over Henrik Norlander (R1) | 1.2 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| Presidents Cup | Christiaan Bezuidenhout +100 over Kevin Kisner (R5) | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Presidents Cup | Finau/Kisner -115 over Im/Munoz (R4) | 1.15 | 1 | 1 | -1.15 | |||
| Presidents Cup | Davis/Scott +165 over Spieth/Thomas (R2) | 0.8 | 1 | 1 | -0.8 | |||
| Presidents Cup | Day 1 Winner Team USA -195 (R1) | 1.25 | 1 | 1 | 0.64 | |||
| Fortinet Championship | Rickie Fowler -110 over Mackenzie Hughes (R4) | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Fortinet Championship | Rickie Fowler -114 over Matthias Schwab (R3) | 1.14 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Fortinet Championship | Adam Svensson -105 over Zac Blair (R3) | 1.05 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Tour Championship | Sungjae Im -115 over Joaquin Niemann (R3) | 1.15 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Tour Championship | Tom Hoge -115 over Sepp Straka (R2) | 1.15 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Tour Championship | Aaron Wise -110 over Sahith Theegala (R1) | 1.44 | 1 | 1 | 1.31 | |||
| BMW Championship | Will Zalatoris -110 over Sam Burns (R3) | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | -1.1 | |||
| BMW Championship | Russell Henley -110 over Tyrrell Hatton (R3) | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | -1.1 | |||
| BMW Championship | Sungjae Im -110 over Sam Burns (R2) | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | ||||
| BMW Championship | Taylor Pendrith -118 over Marc Leishman (R2) | 1.18 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| BMW Championship | Brendan Steele -110 over Matt Kuchar (R1) | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | -1.1 | |||
| St. Jude | Hayden Buckley -110 over Dylan Frittelli (R3) | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| St. Jude | Max Homa -120 over J.T. Poston (R2) | 1.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| St. Jude | Scottier Scheffler -115 over Cameron Smith (R1) | 1.15 | 1 | 1 | -1.15 | |||
| Wyndham | Sungjae Im -125 over Will Zalatoris (R2) | 1.25 | 1 | 1 | -1.25 | |||
| Wyndham | Sungjae Im -115 over Will Zalatoris (R1) | 1.15 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Rocket Mortgage | Sam Ryder -110 over Zach Johnson (R3) | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | -1.1 | |||
| Rocket Mortgage | Cameron Tringale -120 over Kevin Kisner (R2) | 1.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Rocket Mortgage | Cameron Tringale -105 over Kevin Kisner (R1) | 1.05 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 3M Open | James Hahn -110 over Danny Willett (R4) | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 3M Open | Doug Ghim -115 over Brice Garnett (R3) | 1.15 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 3M Open | Tom Hoge -120 over Dylan Frittelli (R2) | 1.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 3M Open | Emiliano Grillo -110 over Cameron Champ (R1) | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 3M Open | Tom Hoge +105 over Dylan Frittelli (R1) | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.05 | |||
| Scottish | Sungjae Im -110 over Ryan Fox (R2) | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | -1.1 | |||
| Scottish | Sungjae Im -110 over Ryan Fox (R1) | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | -1.1 | |||
| Travelers | Aaron Rai -110 over Maverick McNealy (R2) | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Travelers | Aaron Rai -129 over Wyndham Clark (R1) | 1.29 | 1 | 1 | -1.29 | |||
| U.S. Open | Scottie Scheffler -115 over Jon Rahm (R4) | 1.15 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| U.S. Open | Hideki Matsuyama -115 over Billy Horschel (R2) | 1.15 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| U.S. Open | Talor Gooch -120 over Kevin Na (R2) | 1.2 | 1 | 1 | -1.2 | |||
| U.S. Open | Hideki Matsuyama -115 over Billy Horschel (R1) | 1.15 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| RBC Canadian Open | Emiliano Grillo +115 over Brendon Todd (R4) | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | |||
| RBC Canadian Open | Ryan Armour -120 over Matt Wallace (R3) | 1.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| RBC Canadian Open | Tyler Duncan +100 over Robert Streb (R3) | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| RBC Canadian Open | Stephan Jaeger -115 over Rasmus Hojgaard (R2) | 1.15 | 1 | 1 | -1.15 | |||
| RBC Canadian Open | Brice Garnett +100 over Matt Wallace (R2) | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | |||
| Memorial | Charles Howell III -120 over Beau Hossler (R4) | 1.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Memorial | Corey Conners -+150 over Jon Rahm (R3) | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | |||
| Memorial | Marc Leishman -105 over K.H. Lee (R1) | 1.05 | 1 | 1 | -1.05 | |||
| Charles Schwab | Lucas Glover +100 over Denny McCarthy (R4) | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | |||
| Charles Schwab | Lucas Glover -110 over Nick Taylor (R3) | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Charles Schwab | Sam Burns -105 over Talor Gooch (R2) | 1.05 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Charles Schwab | Joel Dahmen -125 over Talor Moore (R2) | 1.25 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Charles Schwab | Davis Riley -120 over Denny McCarthy (R2) | 1.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| PGA Championship | Kramer Hickok +145 over Francesco Molinari (R4) | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | |||
| PGA Championship | Louis Oosthuizen +100 over Billy Horschel (R3) | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Byron Nelson | Adam Scott -115 over Dylan Frittelli (R4) | 1.15 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Byron Nelson | Lanto Griffin -110 over Matthias Schwab (R3) | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Byron Nelson | Adam Scott -115 over Davis Riley (R3) | 1.15 | 1 | 1 | -1.15 | |||
| Byron Nelson | Alex Noren -110 over Christian Bezuidenhout (R3) | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | -1.1 | |||
| Byron Nelson | Aaron Wise -125 over Ian Poulter (R2) | 1.25 | 1 | 0 | ||||
| Byron Nelson | Sahith Theegala -110 over Taylor Moore (R1) | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | ||||
| Wells Fargo | Kurt Kitayama -120 over Adam Schenk (R4) | 1.2 | 1 | 1 | -1.20 | |||
| Wells Fargo | Austin Smotherman -120 over Kevin Chappell (R3) | 1.2 | 1 | 1 | 1.00 | |||
| Wells Fargo | Max Homa -115 over Jason Day (R2) | 1.15 | 1 | 1 | 1.00 | |||
| Wells Fargo | Brian Harman -105 over Troy Merritt (R2) | 1.05 | 1 | 1 | 1.00 | |||
| Wells Fargo | Lucas Glover -120 over Zach Johnson (R1) | 1.2 | 1 | 1 | -1.20 | |||
| RBC Heritage | Tom Hoge -120 over Mackenzie Hughes (R2) | 1.2 | 1 | 1 | 1.00 | |||
| RBC Heritage | Alex Noren -115 over Ian Poulter (R2) | 1.15 | 1 | 1 | -1.15 | |||
| RBC Heritage | J.J. Spaun -110 over Luke List (R1) | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | 1.00 | |||
| Masters | Tony Finau -110 over Sergio Garcia (R4) | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | -1.10 | |||
| Masters | Robert McIntyre -125 over Lee Westwood (R3) | 1.25 | 1 | 1 | -1.25 | |||
| Masters | Harry Higgs -105 over Hudson Swafford (R3) | 1.05 | 1 | 0.00 | ||||
| Masters | Tyrrell Hatton +140 over Jon Rahm (R3) | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | -1.00 | |||
| Masters | Rory McIlroy -120 over Brooks Koepka (R2) | 1.2 | 1 | 1 | 1.00 | |||
| Masters | Tyrrell Hatton -120 over Billy Horschel (R2) | 1.2 | 1 | 1 | -1.20 | |||
| Masters | Patrick Reed -120 over Lee Westwood (R2) | 1.2 | 1 | 1 | 1.00 | |||
| Masters | Dustin Johnson -120 over Collin Morikawa (R1) | 1.2 | 1 | 1 | 1.00 | |||
| Valspar | Adam Svensson -115 over Grayson Sigg (R4) | 1.2 | 1 | 1 | 1.00 | |||
| Valspar | Sahith Theegala -115 over Brice Garnett (R3) | 1.2 | 1 | 1 | 1.00 | |||
| Valspar | Stewart Cink -110 over Brice Garnett (R2) | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | 1.00 | |||
| Valspar | Aaron Wise -105 over Mackenzie Hughes (R2) | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | -1.05 | |||
| Valspar | Aaron Wise -105 over Mackenzie Hughes (R1) | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | 1.00 | |||
| Valspar | Brian Harman -110 over Bernd Wiesberger (R1) | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | 1.00 | |||
| API | Adam Schenk -125 over Stephan Jaeger (R3) | 1.3 | 1 | 1 | -1.25 | |||
| API | Maverick McNealy -110 over Tommy Fleetwood (R2) | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | -1.10 | |||
| API | Cam Young -120 over Taylor Pendrith (R1) | 1.2 | 1 | 1 | 1.00 | |||
| API | Gary Woodland -110 over K.H. Lee (R1) | 1.1 | 1 | 0.00 | ||||
| API | Ian Poulter -120 over Andrew Putnam (R1) | 1.2 | 1 | 1 | 1.00 | |||
| Honda Classic | Nick Taylor -120 over Kevin Tway (R2) | 1.2 | 1 | 1 | 1.00 | |||
| Honda Classic | Sepp Straka -115 over Vincent Whaley (R1) | 1.2 | 1 | 1 | 1.00 | |||
| Genesis | Rickie Fowler -115 over Harry Higgs (R4) | 1.2 | 1 | 0.00 | ||||
| Genesis | Carlos Ortiz -115 over Francesco Molinari (R3) | 1.2 | 1 | 1 | 1.00 | |||
| Genesis | Adam Hadwin -120 over Scott Stallings (R2) | 1.2 | 1 | 1 | -1.20 | |||
| Genesis | Paul Casey -110 over Abraham Ancer (R1) | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | 1.00 | |||
| Genesis | Russell Henley -110 over Corey Conners (R1) | 1.1 | 1 | 0.00 | ||||
| Waste Management | Luke List -120 over Francesco Molinari (R4) | 1.2 | 1 | 1 | -1.20 | |||
| Waste Management | Max Homa -115 over Kevin Kisner (R3) | 1.2 | 1 | 1 | 1.00 | |||
| Waste Management | Brooks Koepka -120 over Gary Woodland (R2) | 1.2 | 1 | 1 | 1.00 | |||
| Waste Management | Matthew Fitzpatrick -120 over Aaron Wise (R1) | 1.2 | 1 | 1 | 1.00 | |||
| Pebble Beach | Russell Knox -115 over Brendon Todd (R2) | 1.2 | 1 | 0.00 | ||||
| Pebble Beach | Jason Day -110 over Matthew Fitzpatrick (R1) | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | 1.00 | |||
| Farmers Insurance | Joaquin Niemann -110 over Billy Horschel (R3) | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | -1.10 | |||
| Farmers Insurance | Matt Jones -110 over Hudson Swafford (R1) | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | -1.10 | |||
| Sony | Keegan Bradley -120 over Hayden Buckley (R4) | 1.2 | 1 | 0.00 | ||||
| Sony | Adam Svensson +165 over Seamus Power (R4) | 0.8 | 1 | 1 | -0.80 | |||
| Sony | Hayden Buckley -118 over Vincent Whaley (R3) | 1.2 | 1 | 1 | 1.00 | |||
| Sony | Corey Conners -125 over Seamus Power (R2) | 1.3 | 1 | 1 | 1.00 | |||
| Sony | Keegan Bradley -110 over Harry Higgs (R2) | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | 1.00 | |||
| Sony | Michael Thompson +112 over Erik Van Rooyen (R1) | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1.12 | |||
| Sony | Keegan Bradley -115 over Harry Higgs (R1) | 1.0 | 1 | 0.00 | ||||
| Sentry | Abraham Ancer -145 over Branden Grace (R4) | 1.5 | 1 | 1 | -1.45 | |||
| Sentry | Sungjae Im -115 over Hideki Matsuyama (R3) | 1.2 | 1 | 1 | 1.00 | |||
| Sentry | Marc Leishman -130 over Lucas Herbert (R2) | 1.3 | 1 | 1 | 1.00 | |||
| Sentry | Lucas Herbert -115 over Matt Jones (R1) | 1.2 | 1 | 1 | 1.00 | |||
| Sentry | Patrick Cantlay -135 over Harris English (R1) | 1.4 | 1 | 1 | 1.00 | |||
| Sentry | Brooks Koepka +125 over Viktor Hovland (R1) | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1.25 |
2022 Outright Bets That Have Finished Inside The Top-10
| Player | Event | Odds | Finish Position |
| Sam Burns | Charles Schwab | 90 | 1 |
| Joaquin Niemann | Genesis Invitational | 75 | 1 |
| Scottie Scheffler | Waste Management | 30 | 1 |
| Will Zalatoris | St. Jude | 28 | 1 |
| Viktor Hovland | Arnold Palmer | 18 | 2 |
| Rory McIlroy | Masters | 22 | 2 |
| Tony Finau | Mexico Open | 25 | 2 |
| Jordan Spieth | Pebble Beach | 22 | 2 |
| Matt Jones | Valero | 130 | 2 |
| Tony Finau | RBC Canadian Open | 30 | 2 |
| Sungjae Im | 3M Open | 25 | 2 |
| Sungjae Im | Tour Championship | 22 | 2 |
| Jason Day | Farmers Insurance | 110 | 3 |
| Corey Conners | Match Play | Rollover | 3 |
| Cam Davis | RBC Heritage | 180 | 3 |
| Xander Schauffele | Waste Management | 16 | 3 |
| Joaquin Niemann | Memorial | 75 | 3 |
| Scottie Scheffler | BMW Championship | 18 | 3 |
| Daniel Berger | Honda Classic | 16 | 4 |
| Troy Merritt | Valero | 100 | 4 |
| Tom Hoge | 3M Open | 80 | 4 |
| Dean Burmester | Sanderson Farms | 65 | 4 |
| Justin Thomas | Byron Nelson | 14 | 5 |
| Ryan Palmer | Byron Nelson | 120 | 5 |
| Brooks Koepka | Match Play | Rollover | 5 |
| Matthew Fitzpatrick | PGA Championship | 50 | 5 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | PGA Championship | 110 | 5 |
| Daniel Berger | Memorial | 60 | 5 |
| Russell Henley | Wyndham | 22 | 5 |
| Corey Conners | BMW Championship | 50 | 5 |
| Mark Hubbard | Sanderson Farms | 110 | 5 |
| Justin Thomas | Genesis Invitational | 16 | 6 |
| Alex Smalley | Mexico Open | 90 | 6 |
| Billy Horschel | Waste Management | 66 | 6 |
| Dustin Johnson | Open | 40 | 6 |
| Aaron Wise | Tour Championship | 45 | 6 |
| Kevin Na | Charles Schwab | 60 | 7 |
| Chris Kirk | Honda Classic | 70 | 7 |
| Callum Tarren | 3M Open | 130 | 7 |
| Rory McIlroy | PGA Championship | 18 | 8 |
| Patrick Cantlay | Open | 33 | 8 |
| Tyrrell Hatton | Wyndham | 60 | 8 |
| Jon Rahm | BMW Championship | 14 | 8 |
| Tyrrell Hatton | Match Play | Rollover | 9 |
| Brian Harman | Wells Fargo | 75 | 9 |
| J.T. Poston | Tour Championship | 90 | 9 |
| Erik Van Rooyen | RBC Heritage | 110 | 10 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | RBC Heritage | 55 | 10 |
| Keith Mitchell | Waste Management | 110 | 10 |
| Sungjae Im | Memorial | 40 | 10 |
Yearly Record
2017 Golf Betting:
Top Head to Head Bets (10-2-2) +8.03 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Dustin Johnson Genesis Open (10/1)
Sergio Garcia Masters (50/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open (45/1)
Justin Thomas PGA Championship (35/1)
Dustin Johnson Northern Trust (14/1)
Overall Units Won (+54.26) 194.24% ROI
2018 Golf Betting:
Top Head to Head Bets (37-18-2) +26.64 Units
Outright Winners (6)
Phil Mickelson WGC-Mexico (22/1)
Bubba Watson WGC- Match Play (45/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open In-Play Wager (14/1)
Dustin Johnson RBC Canadian Open (7/1)
Justin Thomas WGC-Bridgestone (30/1)
Matt Kuchar Mayakoba Golf Classic (66/1)
Overall Units Won (+55.88) 51.70% ROI
2019 Golf Betting:
Top Head to Head Bets (16-8-2) +8.48 Units
Outright Winners (4)
Corey Conners Valero Texas Open (200/1)
Rory McIlroy RBC Canadian Open (10/1)
Brooks Koepka WGC- St. Jude Classic (12/1)
Rory McIlroy Tour Championship (8/1)
Overall Units Won (+27.743) 40.70% ROI
2020 Golf Betting:
Top Head to Head Bets (13-14-2) -1.46 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Bryson DeChambeau U.S. Open (33/1)
Dustin Johnson Travelers Championship (30/1)
Sungjae Im Honda Classic (35/1)
Patrick Reed WGC-Mexico (50/1)
Cameron Smith Sony Open (55/1)
Overall Units Won (+37.015) 20.21% ROI
2021 Golf Betting:
Top Head to Head Bets (17-13-1) +1.97 Units
Outright Winners (10)
Daniel Berger Pebble Beach (18/1)
Max Homa Genesis Invitational (66/1)
Justin Thomas Players Championship (22/1)
Billy Horschel Match Play (150/1)
Cameron Davis Rocket Mortgage (150/1)
Seamus Power Barbasol Championship (20/1)
Kevin Kisner Wyndham Championship (40/1)
Tony Finau Northern Trust (60/1)
Patrick Cantlay BMW Championship (25/1)
Rory McIlroy CJ Cup (20/1)
Overall Units Won (+68.846) 14.22% ROI
Career Record (Excluding 2022 Season Results)
Top Head-to-Head Bets (93-55-9) +43.66 Units
Other Head-to-Head Bets (81-88-9) -4.82 Units
In-Tournament Head-to-Head Bets (125-82-22) +26.27 Units
Outright Winners (30)
Top 5s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 16
2019 - 26
2020 - 19
2021 - 32
Top 10s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 31
2019 - 41
2020 - 41
2021 - 60
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If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU
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