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Welcome back to my PGA DFS lineup picks for the Fortinet Championship on DraftKings! Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by a fraction of a percent, so if you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, you can contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports.
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PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - Fortinet Championship
We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you want to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file." We hope you enjoy!
Silverado Resort & Spa North
7,166 Yards - Par 72 - Greens: Poa Annua Mixed With Bentgrass
Designed in 1957, Silverado Country Club has undergone some restorations over the years, including two notable changes from Robert Trent Jones in 1967 and Johnny Miller in 2011. It is worth noting that the facility had to take on some additional repairs after fires ravaged the area in 2017-2018, but the layout walks this fine line between your classic "resort-style" birdie shootout and something slightly more diabolical when you consider Miller has petitioned for this course to be up for major championship consideration in the past.
Narrow fairways have always been noticeable from a statistical perspective, which we see with players hitting the short grass only 52% of the time, but we start walking down this path of mixed returns since the venue is trying hard to be one thing but can't quite find its identity for multiple reasons. For starters, the measurement of under 7,200 yards as a Par 72 is about as short as you will find on tour, and we get a secondary line of ease when you notice that driving distance remains above average, despite the wayward potential that does come into play off the tee. The tree-lined setup doesn't present quite the difficulty that you might expect since sporadic spacing does allow for extra aggression, and golfers that can miss to the correct side of the rough should have an easier time traversing the course - assuming you don't find yourself so errant with your first shot that you become trapped with no line-of-sight to the green.
There is some wind potential that can come into play, and I'd have to imagine we see the putting surface a little firmer than usual to try and deter this from creeping lower than 20-under par, but for a track that often struggles to find its identity, the rudimentary strategy most likely will come down to total driving (geared towards distance) and wedge proximity from 0-150 yards. We see 50.9% of shots take place from that range, a total that might appear normal on the surface, but not only is that 11.6% percent above expectation, the only reason it isn't higher stems from the eight combined par-three and par-five holes. For research purposes, I will divide this venue into two different outlooks. Half of the analysis will come from the nine par-fours that run under 450 yards, and then the final portion will take a look into the aforementioned par-three and par-five categories that will require long-iron proximity to find success. Overall, even if Silverado Country Club can't figure out what it wants to be as a tournament course on tour, players controlling their short irons should be at an advantage over the field, especially if they can get any semblance of a positive return with their flat stick on this mixed Poa/Bentgrass texture.
Let's Look At The Stats
| Stat | Silverado | Tour Average |
| Driving Distance | 285 | 282 |
| Driving Accuracy | 52% | 62% |
| GIR Percentage | 67% | 65% |
| Scrambling Percentage | 60% | 57% |
| Average Three-Putts Per Round | 0.51 | 0.55 |
Key Stats
Let's quickly run through how I built my model.
Weighted Firm Putting On Poa + Bent (10%) - I mentioned during my course breakdown how I thought these greens would be firm to keep this contest less than 20-under par, and I took a 70/30 split between Poa and Bentgrass on that exact texture.
Overall Weighted Poa + Bent (10%) - Consider this a very similar breakdown to the example above, but the two main differences are that 1. firm conditions haven't been hand-pulled, and 2. this is looking at a complete collection of all strokes gained data points - not just putting totals.
Weighted Par-Three (10%) - Three of the four most challenging holes will take place on the par threes this week, and I looked further into the expected proximity for each player in the field from those critical distances.
Weighted Par-Four (15%) - Nine of the 10 par-fours will take place under 450 yards. That gives golfers that 0-150 proximity range over and over again.
Weighted Par-Five (15%) - While half the approaches will take place from 0-150 yards, we shouldn't be excluding the longer shots from our models. Those opportunities will mostly occur on the par-three and five holes I keep mentioning, which is why this particular category not only dives into birdie or better percentage on these four chances but also how everyone performs from 200+ yards.
Total Driving + Weighted Proximity (30%) - Like all weeks, iron play is more influential to success than anything we might be able to derive elsewhere, but with multiple categories already taking in an ample amount of approach metrics, I allocated 60% of my weight towards total driving - a stat that initially was put together by taking an 80/20 split of distance over accuracy.
I will take a deeper dive into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on Twitter.
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.
High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
***There are four players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter.
Early thoughts on the group:
Hideki Matsuyama ($10,700) - I will likely be out on Hideki Matsuyama for multiple reasons when push comes to shove. For starters, the game has been trending in the wrong direction for numerous months, even if the long-term statistical data does like his potential to find success at Silverado, but the second concern comes into play because of the high-end price tag and inconsistent outputs in my model. If we see his ownership trend in a better direction by Wednesday, I could be talked back into him as a play, but I am out if we don't get a correction in his favor.
Max Homa ($10,500) - If you want to jump to the $10,000 range to start your builds, Max Homa would be my preferred option on Monday morning. The par-five scoring total that places him as the top-ranked golfer in the field would be the main reason he won this event in 2021, and let's not overlook his pristine metrics when given these Poa + Bentgrass mixed venues - a category he places second in the field.
Corey Conners ($10,300) - Yes, Corey Conners is the lowest-rated golfer of the four in my model, but I am placing him on my early consideration list because his putting shifted him down my list further than anyone in this range. For reference sake, if we remove the expected putting output Conners has on similar green complexes and instead give him a mediocre metric for the week, the Canadian easily cracks the top-five in almost all iterations of how I ran my numbers. While I do have concerns about his ability to make putts, I believe the negative marks against him may have been a little too harsh.
Sahith Theegala ($10,500) - My model forgave Sahith Theegala for some of the inconsistencies throughout, especially when we look at him being the only player above $10,000 to rank outside the top-14 for weighted total driving + weighted proximity, but those red flags are always concerning for me when paying up in salary. Perhaps his wayward disadvantage off the tee is mitigated because of the sporadically placed trees that allow aggression, but the issue with that is his iron play isn't good enough for him to get away with trouble if he is playing out of the slightly thicker stuff. Add that to his negative trajectory for upside, and the American will be my one true fade out of this section.
As of Monday:
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Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
$9,000 Range
Maverick McNealy ($9,900) - Let's see where the ownership goes over the next few days, but McNealy looks like a potential pivot option for those trying to get away from some chalk. The California native ranks fifth in putting on similar green complexes over his past 50 rounds, and the par-five scoring and overall birdie or better percentages rank him inside the top-10.
Taylor Pendrith ($9,800) - The recent form has been stellar for Taylor Pendrith, providing five top-13 finishes over his last six starts on tour. There is an ownership range where I would feel uncomfortable finding myself backing the Canadian, but Pendrith ranks behind only Davis Riley in this field when we combine total driving and weighted proximity. I believe there is a reason that he is currently trending over 20% owned, and I am going to bite the bullet for the time being because his upside is that of victory.
Cameron Davis ($9,600) - The worst part of the pricing is that the two top players on my model are right next to each other in the $9,000 range, which generally would be fine if it wasn't showing as if they will also be the highest-owned options on the board. I have nothing negative to say about Cameron Davis' skillset for Silverado, as the Aussie is the number one weighted proximity player in the field. Do I think you can play Pendrith and Davis together in GPP builds? Probably not. But they are shoo-ins for cash-game lineups and likely are still in play together in single-entry lineups, especially if you have spots you know you can get different elsewhere. Davis will be under my tab of "consideration" for now, so let's see where his ownership trends.
Davis Riley ($9,400) -It is an ownership play for Davis Riley at this moment, but it is a high-end one if he comes in as the lowest percentage in this range. As I mentioned previously, Riley leads this field in reweighed total driving + iron proximity to mimic Silverado, and while the floor is low, the ceiling has winning upside if we don't see him catch steam in the space.
Tom Hoge ($9,300) - Similar to Davis Riley, let's see where ownership trends. The iron play for Hoge is immaculate, but the driver can be a problem - one of the reasons he has a handful of scattered finishes at the track between 17th and 37th since 2017.
Emiliano Grillo ($9,200) - The recent form is propelling Emiliano Grillo up in popularity early in the week, but my problem is that I can make a better argument for every player priced near him. Grillo isn't so much a fade as a pass for that reason, but as I have stated multiple times, pricing is on point this week.
As of Monday:
Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
$8,000 Range
We have a few massive fades in Denny McCarthy ($8,800) and Justin Suh ($8,200). There are some books out in the space where I have been able to grab Brendan Steele over McCarthy and Wyndham Clark over Suh in head-to-head matchups. Both of those are on the shortlist for my Vegas Report article this week, and I do have an outright bet on Wyndham Clark ($8,000) at 66/1 on Bovada. That can be found at 65/1 on DraftKings.
As of Monday:
Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000+)
The list removes all players outside the top-60 in overall or upside rank + negative totals against their DraftKings price, upside and ownership. We will break this list down more as ownership continues to trickle in over the next few days.
*** The names showing would be my early leans that I am going to take a deeper dive on over the next few days.
Patrick Rodgers ($7,300) - Patrick Rodgers' best upside comes on these California mixed complexes where he can use his distance and putting prowess. 110/1 on FanDuel is interesting.
Alex Smalley ($7,300) - My model continues to like Alex Smalley almost every week.
Luke List ($7,000) - Luke List at 130/1 is intriguing on DraftKings as an outright. His DFS playability will come down to ownership, but his distance off the tee plays nicely at the track.
Rickie Fowler ($7,000) - Rickie Fowler over Joel Dahmen is a head-to-head that is on the Vegas Report shortlist.
Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider
All the players below were inside the top-65 in one of the two iterations and also positive during either the differential against DraftKings price or ownership. You can use my model to get a complete breakdown of the field, but this condensed things down nicely as a first run.
Early Lean For Favorite Player in Each Range:
$10,000 - Max Homa ($10,500)
$9,000 - Taylor Pendrith ($9,800)
$8,000 - Wyndham Clark ($8,000)
$7,000 - Patrick Rodgers ($7,300)
$6,000 - Austin Smotherman ($6,500)
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