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Happy Friday, RotoBallers, we're back for another day of MLB betting picks. Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can get you guys the best betting picks, props, and lineups throughout the season. We're happy you're here with us and are looking forward to an extremely profitable 2022 season!
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If you're new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Sunday, August 14, 2022. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
- Season to Date: 52-57-2, -16.92 units
- Sides: 29-33-1, -14.45 units
- Totals: 22-24-1, -4.17 units
- Props: 1-0 +1.70 units
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Rangers @ Twins
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: MIN -142
TEX: Martin Perez | MIN: Dylan Bundy
We finished 1-1 on Sunday, getting burned once again in New York with the Mets knocking in a tally in the first against Philly starter Zach Wheeler. I won't be looking at that game tonight for a first-inning under, but I will be taking a look at the Rangers and Twins matchup at Target Field for one. The visiting Rangers will send Martin Perez (9-3, 2.79 ERA) to the mound. Perez has been solid in the first inning this year, tossing a scoreless opening frame in nine of 11 starts on the road as well as in 20 of 23 starts overall.
Conversely, the Twins will be sending Dylan Bundy (6-5, 4.76 ERA) to the mound. The Twins signed Bundy this year in hopes he could return to the form he had in LA, but he hasn't quite delivered. Nevertheless, he's been solid in the first inning as well, keeping opponents off the board in six of seven starts at home and in 16 of 20 starts overall.
The Twins have been decent scoring in the first, scoring in 32.2% of games at home and in 34.5% of games overall. The Rangers haven't been nearly as good, scoring in just 25% of first innings both on the road and overall. They've been playing to their "mean" so to speak over their last ten games, with the Twins scoring in three of their last ten while the Rangers have scored in two of their last ten. FanDuel Sportsbook currently has the first inning under at -104, while my model has the under at -145.
Pick: Under 0.5 First Inning Runs (-104) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Cardinals @ Diamondbacks
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: ARI +152
STL: Miles Mikolas | ARI: Tommy Henry
We'll head out to Arizona for our second play of the day. The visiting Cardinals will be sending Miles Mikolas (9-9, 3.44 ERA) to the mound today. It's a shame that Mikolas comes into this one with a .500 record, considering how well he's pitched this season. His 3.44 ERA partnered with his 3.76 xFIP are impressive, but it will be a tough ask for him to shut down Arizona following their (somewhat) shellacking of Logan Webb yesterday.
On the other hand, the DBacks will send southpaw Tommy Henry (2-1, 4.15 ERA) to the mound. Henry comes into this one with a 5.68 xFIP and 36.4% hard contact allowed, showing that despite his 4.15 ERA he's still been relatively lucky in terms of run prevention. Like with Mikolas, it projects to be a tough go for Henry tonight against a Cardinals lineup that is potent against left-handers. St. Louis leads the league in OPS (.799), wOBA (.346), and wRC+ (126) against southpaws.
Due to their ability to smash left-handed pitching, it's obvious that the Cardinals have a massive lineup advantage here, with a +.182 advantage in wOBA + ISO and an 11.7% hard contact advantage. They also have the starting pitcher advantage and the bullpen advantage, something that I look for in every pick that I make. FanDuel Sportsbook is giving us the Cardinals money line at a somewhat-juiced -178, but we're still getting value here. My model has the Cardinals winning 5.73 - 4.44 with a true line of -188. I'll take the value here and back the Cardinals to stay hot after a 13-0 win yesterday.
Pick: Cardinals Money Line (-178) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, RotoBallers, and make sure to follow my Twitter for more plays. See you tomorrow!
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