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Adam Koffler identifies undervalued players in PPR formats for 2022 fantasy football.
The Year is 2022. These days, many of us play in fantasy football leagues that grant points per reception (PPR). Whether it's 0.5 points or a full point, leagues with this scoring setting see many players have an increase in value as a result of catching a ton of passes.
Sometimes, these guys are valued appropriately, like Austin Ekeler and D'Andre Swift for example. Everyone knows they're catching a ton of passes and they're both likely to see the majority of their team's work out of the backfield. Other guys fly under the radar, either because they're not the "starter" or they underperformed a season ago. Maybe they dealt with injury, or maybe they didn't have the best offensive scheme to utilize their talents. Either way, the players below are sure to see a boost in PPR leagues in 2022 for a variety of reasons.
Let's dive right in and talk about four players that are being undervalued in PPR leagues that you should actively be targeting in your fantasy football drafts.
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Nyheim Hines, Indianapolis Colts
ADP: RB45
You might be wondering why Hines tops the list of undervalued PPR targets heading into the 2022 season after being targeted just 57 times across 17 games a season ago. And you're right to question the take, as 3.4 targets per game don't really move the needle in fantasy football, especially when you're playing second fiddle to one of the best running backs in the game in Jonathan Taylor.
Let's take a look at Hines' four-year NFL career thus far. In 2018, he played with Andrew Luck. That season, Luck threw a career-high 639 times (39.9 times per game) and rushed for just 9.3 yards per game (a career-low). Hines was targeted a career-high 81 times (5.1 per game) that season and finished as a high-end RB3 in fantasy football.
In 2019, Hines played with Jacoby Brissett. Brisset only threw the ball 442 times in 14 healthy games (31.6 times per game) and rushed for 16 yards per game. Hines was only targeted 3.6 times per game that season. Now let's move to 2020, where Hines played with check-down extraordinaire, Philip Rivers.
Rivers attempted 543 passes that season (33.9) and of course didn't run the ball hardly at all. Hines' targets once again rose to 4.8 per game. He also had a career-high in yards per target of 6.34 and hauled in a career-high four touchdowns. In 2021 of course, Wentz only threw the ball 30.4 times per game, which subsequently led to another decline in Hines' targets.
This leads us to 2022, and new Colts quarterback Matt Ryan. Granted it's a new team and a new system with different weapons, but Ryan has averaged 37.7 pass attempts per game. If we're following history, Hines is likely to see an uptick in targets this season with Ryan attempting far more passes than his predecessors, Jacoby Brissett and Carson Wentz.
Now, there's also a possibility Jonathan Taylor just continues to get a monster workload, which of course affects Hines' snap share and subsequently targets per game. But let's dive into that a bit more. For one, head coach Frank Reich has openly acknowledged they want to use Hines more than they did in 2021. In fact, he even went so far as to say this:
Second, because the Colts were competitive in almost every game a season ago, it just became impossible to take Taylor off the field. Check this out, the Colts' margin of victory in their nine wins was astounding, while they only lost by an average of a touchdown in their eight losses:
So while Hines likely has more standalone value in 2022 than he did in 2021 and 2019, he should also be viewed as a very good handcuff.
In his career, whenever playing greater than 50% of the snaps, Hines has averaged 13.3 opportunities per game. Of those 13.3 opportunities, half (6.7) were targets, which of course are worth approximately 1.6 fantasy points in full PPR leagues.
With a current ADP of RB45, Hines should be a priority target in all PPR leagues.
Evan Engram, Jacksonville Jaguars
ADP: TE20
After starting his career on fire, Engram's had a rough go of it the last two seasons. In his first three seasons, he averaged 7.8 targets per game in 31 healthy games. In his last two seasons, that number dipped to just 5.9 targets per game (in 31 games).
So what exactly happened? It's possible it was the mid-foot sprain he suffered during the 2019 season, but not all that likely given it's an injury many players have successfully overcome. It's more likely that coaching played a significant role in his demise. Joe Judge (head coach) and Jason Garrett (offensive coordinator) took over for Pat Shurmer and Mike Shula.
Engram was a first-round pick in 2017 due to his impressive senior year at Ole Miss and his nearly flawless athletic profile. He showcased those talents his rookie season, averaging a 20% target share and a 25.9% targets per route run (TPRR) rate, per PlayerProfiler. Of course, Engram is no longer a New York Giant. He now finds himself in Jacksonville paired with a generational talent at quarterback in Trevor Lawrence. Not only that but he's got himself a head coach who loves to utilize his tight ends in Doug Pederson.
Between 2017 and 2019, he was responsible for three straight top-5 positional finishes for Zach Ertz. Furthermore, Ertz never dipped below a 23.1% target share or 28.5% TPRR (per PlayerProfiler) during that stretch.
That's not to say Engram will be force-fed targets in Jacksonville, but maybe he will be. After all, it's a pretty ambiguous group of pass-catchers. Marvin Jones may be on the other side of the age cliff, while Christian Kirk and Zay Jones are also brand new members of the team.
There's no telling who Lawrence will lock onto, but if we're choosing one guy, why not the guy who's done it before, at a very early age nonetheless? That guy would be Evan Engram and Doug Pederson supposedly wants to use him like he used Zach Ertz in Philadelphia. Wheels up at his current ADP of TE20!
JuJu Smith-Schuster, Kansas City Chiefs
ADP: WR35
After spending the first five seasons of his career in Pittsburgh, Smith-Schuster finds himself in Kansas City with one of the biggest quarterback upgrades known to man.
He goes from 39-year-old Ben Roethlisberger, who averaged 9.6 yards per completion a season ago, to Patrick Mahomes, who averaged 11.1 yards per completion during the 2021 season. Not to mention the Chiefs have averaged 38.6 pass attempts per game the last three seasons and Tyreek Hill is no longer on the team.
So in steps Smith-Schuster, who's had an up and down five-year career to this point. In his second season, he garnered a 24.5% target share and had a targets per route run (TPRR) rate of 26.8% (per PlayerProfiler).
That equated to a whopping 111 receptions on 166 targets over 16 games or 10.4 targets per game. Only really good players in their age 22 season see an opportunity share like that, so we'll go off the assumption that JuJu is pretty good.
Yes, he'll be playing alongside Travis Kelce, but Kelce himself may be on the decline if even just a little bit. He's entering his age 33 season and he saw his lowest target share since 2016 a season ago (22.3%).
The same goes for his TPRR, which sat at 24.9% in 2021. That's still really good, but it's not the 33.3% TPRR he had in 2018 or even the 27.6% he had in 2019. And Smith-Schuster is no stranger to playing alongside elite target earners, as he's played with both Antonio Brown and Diontae Johnson thus far in his young career.
As a result, we shouldn't be worried about Smith-Schuster earning targets playing next to Kelce. He's obviously a good receiver and he's now playing in a pass-happy offense with an elite quarterback.
What about Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Skyy Moore, and Mecole Hardman? Well, MVS has never earned a target share north of 14.6%, Hardman has never earned a target share north of 13.1%, and Moore is just a rookie trying to compete with four veteran pass-catchers.
All this to say Smith-Schuster shouldn't have too hard of a time earning targets in this offense. And if you needed further evidence of a JuJu rebound, take a look at this nugget of information:
Smith-Schuster has legit top-15 upside with a current ADP of WR35, especially in PPR leagues.
Jakobi Meyers, New England Patriots
ADP: WR55
Believe it or not, Jakobi Meyers has been top-25 in target share the past two seasons. In 2020, he had a target share of 23.2%, and in 2021, a target share of 24.4%. His TPRR also never dipped below 25.9% in those two seasons, a sign that he's earning targets at a high clip. That culminated in a career-high 126 targets a season ago (7.4 per game, which included a game Mac Jones attempted just three passes).
His route participation (91%), routes run per game (28.6), and snap share (82.7%), were all career-highs for Meyers in 2021. Believe it or not, he was also 22nd among all receivers in total air yards (1,211) (metrics per PlayerProfiler). Even with all this opportunity, Meyers finished as just a low-end WR3 in 2021 as a result of only catching two touchdowns from Jones.
Catching just two touchdowns on 126 targets is an exceptionally low rate. Expect positive touchdown regression from Meyers this season as the Patriots put more on Jones' shoulders after he completed an impressive 67.6% of his passes as a rookie.
Apparently, there's even more room for Mac Jones to grow as a passer. If he improves his accuracy, we could be in for a real treat with Jakobi Meyers, who has a current ADP of WR55. Have a look at this awesome graph created by PFF's Nate Jahnke:
Isaiah McKenzie, Buffalo Bills
ADP: WR93
Who? Yea, that's right, Isaiah McKenzie, potentially the Bills' new starting slot receiver taking over for Cole Beasley. What about Jamison Crowder, who the Bills brought in this offseason on a one-year, $2 million contract? Well, apparently McKenzie was working exclusively with the first team early in training camp:
And apparently, Crowder is working exclusively with the second unit, and not even out of the slot:
If this continues to be a trend and McKenzie locks up the starting slot role, he should be in for a career year in Buffalo. It's taken him a few years to find his footing, but he's always produced when given the opportunity. Check out what he's done in two starts in the last two seasons:
Remember, this is a Bills offense that fed Beasley over seven targets per game the last three seasons, which led to him finishing as a rock-solid WR3 in the 2019 and 2020 seasons. If McKenzie can win the job, he's going to get targets and would be a massive steal at his current ADP of WR93.
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