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The weekend is here and we have games scattered across the day at multiple different times, so there should be continuous baseball for 10-12 hours to wager on today! Hey there, it's your friendly neighborhood sports betting enthusiast, Thunder Dan, here and I'm back with more MLB bets! Whether you like game totals, sides, or player props, I have something in here for you and try to cover a little bit of everything!
Recently, I started my own free sports betting newsletter, and the good people here at RotoBaller are allowing me to share my picks and data with you here in this space! You can access the free substack here and sign up for daily emails in addition to viewing the picks daily here on the RotoBaller website.
In this article, I'll be providing my MLB favorite betting picks on Friday, July 22nd, 2022. The odds on these bets vary from book to book and are constantly changing. I primarily use FanDuel and DraftKings sportsbooks, but I would strongly encourage you to shop for the best odds at whatever books you use daily. I would also advise checking back later in the day as I may add bets depending on odds changing or specific props becoming available after I first post.
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MLB Betting Picks: Strikeout Projections
I do my own strikeout projections for just about every pitcher, every day. I use both season-long data and the most recent 14-day rolling samples from pitchers and opposing hitters when calculating these projections and I also include some other helpful stats here that I look at while making my picks, including pitchers' SwStr%, BB%, etc... These are median projections that are based on the average length of start for each pitcher, so if you think a pitcher is going to pitch deeper or less deep than usual, adjust accordingly.
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MLB Betting Picks: Pitcher Prop Bets
Max Scherzer o7.5K vs. SDP (+100 FD or DK)
Mad Max at plus odds for 8? Sign me up! He’s been phenomenal since coming back from injury and you can see his numbers on the chart are GREEN across the board.
Kevin Gausman o5.5K vs. BOS (-145 FD)
Gausman’s projection just barely clears the bar here, and normally I wouldn’t chase a number so close at these juiced odds, BUT he has owned the Sox so far this year with 19 strikeouts across two starts. I think he gets six today, he should be rested up and ready to throw splitters all damn day.
Shohei Ohtani o8.5K vs. ATL (+122 FD)
How can we not keep riding the Ohtani wave? DK hasn’t set his line yet, but if it’s 7.5 there it won’t be for long. He’s in just incredible form and gets a great matchup against the Braves who love to swing the bat (and miss quite often)
Charlie Morton o7.5K (-140 FD)
Morton is the match-up play of the day, and you know by now we are attacking Angels for K props just about every day. This is a decent amount of juice on a big number, but Charlie has been in good form over the last month and the Angels’ K rate just continues to soar.
Corbin Burnes o7.5K vs. COL (-150 FD)
It’s not a great match-up for strikeouts on paper, but Burnes has been mowing guys down and it’s hard for me to envision him not getting 8 at home against an inferior club. I don’t love the juice, but I think it’s still a very worthy bet.
Who else to watch for?
Braxton Garrett! He just struck out 11 Pirates last time out, and I am hoping we can get him at 5.5 today, which I would be all about grabbing. If it’s 6.5, then it gets a tad dicier but could be worth a bet if the odds are juicy enough.
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MLB Betting Picks: Sides and Totals
Yankees o4.5 runs (-135 DK)
Brewers o4.5 runs (-110 DK)
These two teams have my top two custom team projections today. The Yankees didn’t exactly light up the scoreboard in yesterday’s doubleheader, but I like their match-up here against Wells in Camden. My model is all over them, and my gut says they’re going to score some runs tonight, hopefully, it happens for us.
The Brewers are at home, where they have been strong offensively this year, and get a very hittable Senzatela and the infamous (but not quite as bad as they once were) Rockies’ bullpen.
Tampa Bay ML (-104 FD)
I’m not really sure why the Royals are favored here at home. They are going with Keller now instead of Greinke, which helps their case, but Tampa is a significantly better all-around team and looked good heading into the break, winning six of their final seven games.
Texas ML (-116 FD)
I’m placing some faith in Spencer Howard to show up and pitch like we know he’s capable of pitching against a bottom-five offense in all of baseball. The Rangers offense has been rounding into form nicely, and while Cole Irvin is that guy who can troll us, I still think Texas has enough of an advantage here on offense to win this one on the road.
MLB Betting Picks: Betting Trends
I usually include this chart at least once a week in my newsletter, so that readers can see how every team has fared in specific situations this year. I like looking at trends, but I use them to support my data-driven picks, not to make picks from exclusively.
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I hope you find my data and picks helpful and profitable! Thanks for checking out my picks and content here at RotoBaller!
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