2022 Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Mock Draft: Picking in the Middle (Slots 5-8)

July 14, 2022

Pierre Camus conducts a one-man rookie mock draft for 2022 dynasty fantasy football leagues from the middle slots (pick 5-8).

This mock review is a follow-up to part one, which examined strategies when drafting from an early slot in dynasty rookie drafts. In this piece, we'll focus on the middle draft slots.

Rather than simply putting out a mock and rationalizing the picks one round at a time, I'll examine each team based on how each team attacked the draft. In a dynasty league, not every team is after the same thing.

Check the full draft board on Sleeper right here.

Rookie Mock Draft (Slots 5-8)

Slot 5 Strategy - Get Your Guy

Some pundits consider Garrett Wilson the most talented receiver in this year's class and it's hard to argue. He had to compete for targets with Chris Olave and Jaxon Smith-Njigba on the 2021 Ohio State team and still came away with 1,058 yards and 12 TD. His value is inextricably tied to Zach Wilson, which makes him a high-risk/high-reward pick. With Burks and Moore still on the board this wasn't a gimme pick, but Wilson may have a ceiling that exceeds those two despite being in a less favorable spot in year one.

Bell's ADP in FFPC rookie drafts since May is 19 overall but his stock has dropped slightly since the concerns about a Deshaun Watson year-long suspension began to grow. We still have no clarity about that situation as of now, so the value behind this pick might shift based on the outcome. For now, Team 5 is looking beyond the Watson scandal and Bell's subpar workout numbers to get a talented receiver who dominated at Purdue. He registered 93 receptions for 1,286 yards as a junior before deciding to enter the pros. His best attribute for a dynasty is the age advantage – he broke out at 18.7 (94th percentile) and will be a 21-year-old rookie. Even if Watson sits for 6-8 games or conceivably the entire season, it might matter little. Bell figures to be a year two breakout anyway.

Pierre Strong is one of many young running backs the Patriots have collected in the past two years. In 2022, he'll be behind Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson for certain. If James White is healthy, he'll occupy the third-down role. There's also sixth-round pick Kevin Harris to contend with. Strong has the perfect blend of speed, size, toughness, and hands to be a productive NFL running back so this pick is a bet on talent over opportunity.

There are some ridiculous runs on Pierre Strong's tape. #Patriots pic.twitter.com/8UO0waeai6

— Evan Lazar (@ezlazar) May 1, 2022

Keaontay Ingram's stock has also been falling since the Cardinals signed Darrel Williams shortly after the NFL Draft. Those who believe in his talent will stick to the belief that he can outperform Williams and eventually take over the job as pass-catcher and the change-of-pace runner behind James Conner.

Slot 6 Strategy - All About the Landing Spot

Here we go... Treylon Burks. It has been a rough summer for Burks truthers between the questions about his conditioning and asthma. If anything, this could serve to make him a greater value if he falls in rookie drafts and even in redraft leagues.

An in-depth piece by John Glennon on FanNation quotes Vanderbilt University Professor of Medicine Stokes Peebles:

“Since he didn’t have trouble at Arkansas, there’s a good chance he won’t have trouble with the Titans. If I had to bet, the greatest predictor of future outcome is the past, right? So, if he played every game at Arkansas (during his final season) and he was performing at a high level … then most likely, he’s never going to have problems when the (NFL) season starts.”

Tennessee may have been a bad landing spot in terms of allergens but he has a shot to be the WR1 early on.

I expanded on Alec Pierce in detail as a top Rookie Draft Target. He is already penciled in as the starting wideout opposite Michael Pittman Jr. He gets a veteran QB in Matt Ryan to catch passes and learn from. It doesn't get much better than that for a rookie.

Greg Dulcich joins Denver just as Noah Fant exits and he gets to catch passes from Russell Wilson. The only TE above him on the depth chart is Albert Okwuegbunam, a player who has missed 15 games over his first two NFL seasons. Dulcich won't be an immediate impact player but it's clear he wound up in a great spot.

Slot 7 Strategy - Drafting for Value

Once Skyy Moore was picked by the Chiefs, he skyrocketed up many draft lists. He's been picked as high as third overall in some rookie drafts. Although he gets the luxury of having Pat Mahomes as his quarterback in Andy Reid's system, it's best not to overreact to the landing spot either. Moore could wind up being a steal here but that's far from guaranteed.

Tyler Allgeier is a strong bet to be the starting running back in Atlanta, for what that's worth. All the talk of Cordarrelle Patterson being an RB only in fantasy this year is ironic since the talk is that he'll be used less in that role in 2022.

Cordarrelle Patterson: Likely won't be workhorse back https://t.co/oindgXDwjD

— RotoWire🏈 (@RotoWireNFL) July 10, 2022

Allgeier's rookie draft ADP settled in at 20 overall (RB9) on FFPC. If he can be nabbed beyond the early portion of the second round, it's time to pull the trigger.

Maybe Tyquan Thornton shouldn't have been a second-round pick in the NFL Draft when receivers like Skyy Moore, David Bell, Jalen Tolbert, Alec Pierce, and others were still available. Maybe Bill Belichick just doesn't know how to pick receivers. We will find out eventually, but even with those skeptical thoughts floating around the fantasy community, Thornton is a great value in the fourth round. He ran a 4.28 at the combine and is set to be the burner that Nelson Agholor wasn't in New England. Mac Jones ranked 21st in deep pass performance last year according to PFF, so we will also see if that was due to a lack of quality options or something more.

Slot 8 Strategy - Speed Kills

This team subscribed to the theory that speed and playmaking ability will ultimately result in fantasy value regardless of what the depth chart looks like. Dotson, Robinson, and Shakir are receivers that all ran a 4.44 or 4.43 at the combine while Ridder and Okonkwo both ran a 4.52, the fastest at their respective positions.

Dotson and Robinson are already drawing rave reviews from reporters and teammates alike after rookie mini-camp. With the absence of Terry McLaurin due to an earlier contract holdout, Dotson had time to develop chemistry with Carson Wentz. It is justifiable to be concerned about the fact that Wentz is his quarterback but great receivers can usually overcome mediocre QB play.

I see what Washington is doing!

Carson Wentz ranked dead last in accuracy last two years combined

so...

they drafted Jahan Dotson, who caught a ton of inaccurate passes at PSU

to pair him w Terry McLaurin who saw the most inaccurate targets last yrhttps://t.co/wP3ORP9hXA

— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) April 29, 2022

Desmond Ridder is an intriguing dynasty asset. On one hand, he only has Marcus Mariota, who hasn't been able to hold onto a starting job since 2018, standing in his way. He's playing for a rebuilding team that has nothing to lose by giving him playing time as a rookie and a shot to earn the job in 2023. That would give the Falcons the luxury of spending what should be an early draft pick on another position other than quarterback. It's basically what happened with Davis Mills in Houston as they were able to focus on the secondary, offensive line, and receiver in the first two rounds as Mills holds down the fort.

Of course, the other side of the debate is that Ridder's college success and dual-threat ability may not translate to the pros. He had a 62.1% completion percentage over four years at Cincinnati playing in the American conference. He joins a Falcons team whose top two targets are a rookie wideout and second-year tight end who will both be 21 years old this season. Beyond that, it's Bryan Edwards, Olamide Zaccheaus, and Auden Tate. There's also the chance that Mariota plays so well he keeps the job all season. Anything is possible in the NFL.

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