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Happy Friday, RotoBallers! Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can get you guys the best betting picks, props, and lineups throughout the season. We're happy you're here with us and are looking forward to an extremely profitable 2022 season!
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If you're new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks MLB games on Friday, May 13, 2022. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
- Season to Date: 17-21-1, -9.33 units
- Sides: 13-12, -2.96 units
- Totals: 4-9-1, -3.37 units
- Notes: Just another brutal one yesterday. The Pirates' loss stinks but it happens, the bats just didn't show up. I was more frustrated with the over in the Mets/Nationals showdown, considering the Mets scored two runs in the first and were held to that, despite Adon walking five batters in his first three innings of work. Nevertheless, we're back at it today.
San Francisco Giants @ St. Louis Cardinals
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: STL +102
SF: Logan Webb | STL: Jordan Hicks
I'll head to St. Louis for our first play of the day. The Giants will send Logan Webb to the mound, who comes into this one 4-1 with a 3.82 ERA. According to my model, Webb has a 58.39 rating, among the best on this large slate, and I project him to have a 2.96 xFIP in this game. Webb struggled somewhat in his last start against the Cardinals on Sunday, allowing four runs across five innings of work. Despite this, the Giants won that game and are 5-1 behind him this season.
On the other side of the matchup, the Cardinals will send converted reliever Jordan Hicks to the mound. Hicks won his first start of the season but hasn't gotten a win since, coming into this one 1-2 with a 3.78 ERA. Hicks comes into this one with a 29.91 rating, giving the Giants a solid starting pitching advantage. I project Hicks to have a 3.88 xFIP in this one, but the Giants have the potential to explode. Their projected 7.96% HR rate against Hicks is the highest on the slate.
FanDuel Sportsbook has the Giants at -120 as I'm typing this, good for 54.54% implied odds. My model gives the Giants a 56.18% chance of hitting, by a final score of 4.70-3.99. The Giants are 6-0 this season as road favorites, and I see good value here as long as Webb can outduel Hicks, while the Giants can pick apart a Cardinals bullpen that comes into this one with a 4.65 xFIP and allows 31.7% hard contact.
Pick: Giants Money Line (-120) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies
O/U: 10.5 | Moneyline: COL -142
KC: Zack Greinke | COL: Kyle Freeland
We'll head to Coors for our second game on the slate as the Royals come into town for a weekend set. The Royals will send Zack Greinke to the mound, who comes into this one 0-2 with a surprising 2.67 ERA. My model isn't quite buying that hot start, though, as I project him with a 49.57 rating and a 4.78 xFIP projection in this start. He's somewhat struggled in Coors throughout his career, with a 4.01 ERA and 1.422 WHIP in Colorado. The Royals are 2-4 behind Greinke this season, and I do think Colorado breaks back out offensively today with a projected .513 wOBA + ISO and 29.28% hard-contact rank against the veteran righty.
On the other side, the Rockies will send Kyle Freeland to the mound. After losing his first two starts of the season, the Rox have bounced back behind Freeland winning three of his last four starts. He brings in a 1-3 record with a 3.94 ERA, and a 53.7 rating, and my model projects him to have a 3.62 xFIP this evening. KC's offense is struggling and I project them to have a .336 wOBA + ISO and just a 22.31% hard contact rate against Freeland tonight.
FanDuel Sportsbook has the Rockies at -142, good for 58.67% implied odds. My model gives the Rockies a 63.61% chance of winning, by a final score of 5.54-4.97. The Rockies should be glad to be home after a tough road trip but should find solace at Coors, where they're 7-3 as a home favorite. Meanwhile, the Royals have last four straight games against a left-handed starter. Lastly, the Rockies had off yesterday while the Royals played last night in Texas and then had to travel to Denver for this weekend series. I'll back the home favorite here.
Pick: Rockies Money Line (-142) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, Rotoballers, and make sure to follow my Twitter for more plays. See you tomorrow!
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