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Now that we’re coming off our rookie fever, it’s time to see where the newest NFL players stack up against the veterans. That’s right, we’re talking rookies and dynasty rankings.
My name is Ellis Johnson and this is my sixth year writing NFL content with RotoBaller. In this article, I am going to list my personal rookie rankings from 20 to 11, as well as where they stand in my dynasty rankings. I also recently wrote an article for a three-round rookie mock draft for a 10-team Superflex league which you can find here.
Out of all fantasy formats, dynasty is the most subjective. Every manager weighs age, talent, and landing spot differently when evaluating players. In the end, every league has its market values for players, making no one set of rankings perfect. Having said that, here are my rankings.
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Jaylen Wright (RB, MIA)
Positional Ranking: 31. Kendre Miller (NOS), 32. Jaylen Wright (MIA), 33. Zach Charbonnet (SEA)
I’ll be honest, I am shocked that Wright seems to be slipping in drafts. I believe the recipe for elite fantasy RB production is clear. Much like the next player (Trey Benson), he awaits behind an aging back who has recently succeeded in their current role. The only difference is that we saw Raheem Mostert have an incredible 21 touchdowns last season. It’s hard to say that Wright will have a 21-touchdown season, but the fact that the offense is good enough for Mostert to do it is fantasy gold.
Don’t worry; I haven’t forgotten about the fantasy breakout De'Von Achane. Although I love how electric Achane is, I think his first season made it clear that he is not a volume-based player. After suffering multiple injuries in his limited touches, I believe the Dolphins will want to use him more as a chess piece than an every-down back. Wright enters the league over 20 pounds heavier and two inches taller than Achane.
Not only was he bigger than Achane, but he was almost identical to Mostert when he came out of college. Wright is the same height and five pounds heavier than the veteran, and both ran a blistering 4.38 40-yard dash. The excitement might be with Achane, but don’t let that push Wright too far down your draft boards.
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Trey Benson (RB, ARI)
Positional Ranking: 27. Zack Moss (CIN), 28. Trey Benson (ARI), 29. Javonte Williams (DEN)
At the start of the third round, the Cardinals selected their RB for the future, Trey Benson. Coming out of Florida State University, Benson had some very impressive games in their 13-1 season.
Benson is a solid zone runner and, I believe, an underrated pass catcher. The only issue for fantasy is that James Conner is in his way for at least this season. Conner, who is 29 years old, is entering the final year of his contract. The good news for Benson is that we’ve seen Conner consistently produce as a top-15 running back when healthy in this offense.
With the depth chart posing little threat to Benson, it all comes down to whether he can produce at the NFL level. Conner usually misses a few games each season, which means we could very well have that question answered this season. If you liked Benson as a prospect (like I do), then I think he is a good value in the middle to late second round.
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Adonai Mitchell (WR, IND)
Positional Ranking: 42. Cooper Kupp (LAR), 43. Adonai Mitchell (IND), 44. Jordan Addison (MIN)
In the drafts I’ve seen, this range is on the high end for the exceptionally athletic WR out of Texas. Because of his 6’2” 205-pound frame, his 4.34-second 40-yard dash can be viewed as more impressive than his record-breaking ex-teammate Xavier Worthy.
Unfortunately, his landing spot can be viewed as a negative. Anthony Richardson is an exceptional player who has injury and accuracy concerns. However, he has a cannon of an arm, and we have seen him throw an excellent deep ball. The good news is that Mitchell should immediately compete (and I believe overcome) Alec Pierce as this team’s second outside WR. With Michael Pittman Jr. as the primary option and Josh Downs playing in the slot, Mitchell should be on the field more often than not.
Mitchell is an excellent athletic prospect but his fantasy value will be directly related to how you view Richardson as a passer. If you think Richardson can support multiple weapons, I see Mitchell in the same tier as the next five WRs.
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Ricky Pearsall (WR, SF)
Positional Ranking: 40. Jayden Reed (GBP), 41. Ricky Pearsall (SF), 42. Cooper Kupp (LAR)
Pearsall became the darling of many draft analysts in the month leading up to the draft. However, I don’t believe I saw anyone who had him going in the first round of the NFL draft.
Pearsall is a great all-around receiver who runs crisp routes, rarely drops passes, and can block. As a result, it’s no surprise the 49ers were excited to get him in the first. As for fantasy, a lot of his evaluation has to do with your opinion of Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel. These players were rumored to be on the trade block going into the draft, yet both remain on the team.
If the receiving room opens up, there will be plenty of opportunity for Pearsall. Over the last three years, we have seen two receivers, a tight end, and a running back all be relevant for fantasy. There is a world where Pearsall steps into one of the receiver roles, however, it’s no guarantee.
Pearsall never had more than five touchdowns in a season throughout his five-year college career. If he doesn’t become a touchdown threat, it will be hard for him to find top-24 value in an offense loaded with weapons. In the end, I can easily see the path that could get him drafted at the top of the second. However, I can also see a world that justifies him falling behind the names I’ve listed above.
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Xavier Legette (WR, CAR)
Positional Ranking: 37. Amari Cooper (CLE), 38. Xavier Legette (CAR), 39. Chris Godwin (TB)
One of the most interesting rookies of the last few decades has to be Legette. If you are unaware, Legette did not crack 200 receiving yards in any of his first four seasons. He then exploded for 1,255 yards and seven touchdowns last season.
Arguably the most head-scratching yet impressive part is last season didn’t look like a fluke. Running crisp routes and making contested catches with ease, it’s hard to poke a hole in his production. The Panthers then traded into the first round to secure him. Although this is the second time in two years that the Panthers have said they were unreasonably high on a player, this is a different regime than the one that selected Jonathan Mingo in the second round.
Even if you question Legette’s turnaround, you can’t question his athleticism. At six-foot-one and 221 pounds, he ran a blistering 4.39 40-yard dash and a 40-inch vertical jump. He now finds himself as part of a revamped Panthers offense that brought in Diontae Johnson and beefed up their offensive line. It’s a risky pick, but Legette has all the traits to develop into a dominant NFL WR.
Xavier Legette may be the fastest man alive based on this touchdown catch and run pic.twitter.com/R34Fn9TQ82
— SEC Mike (@MichaelWBratton) September 23, 2023
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Michael Penix Jr. (QB, ATL)
Positional Ranking: 23. Kirk Cousins (ATL), 24. Michael Penix Jr. (ATL), 25. Daniel Jones (NYG)
Penix is in a fascinating situation. The eighth overall pick is now a Falcon after they signed Kirk Cousins to a very expensive contract. As a result, Penix is purely a future investment for both the Falcons and your fantasy team’s future.
The negative case for Penix is that you have to hold him for most likely two years (at least) before you find out if he’ll be a successful QB in the league. Since I typically play dynasty in two-year windows, I find it hard to draft Penix higher than this. I was also one of those people who got burned by Trey Lance. Although a more complete prospect than Lance, you have to wait two years to find out if he is more similar to Lance or Jordan Love. That’s a scary gamble.
The positive case is that highly drafted young QBs who sit behind a veteran to start their careers have found a lot of success. Plus, he is the fourth top-eight-drafted skill position on this offense. Kyle Pitts was the fourth pick, while Drake London and Bijan Robinson were both the eighth pick. The Falcons are an upcoming team, and if Penix works out, they could be a good offense for a long time.
If your team is in a complete rebuild, he may be an excellent pick. However, if you're a contender, selecting Penix is a lot like the Falcons signing Cousins and drafting Penix. Is it worth passing over a player who can immediately help win a championship for a guy who won’t sniff the field for two years? Probably not.
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Keon Coleman (WR, BUF)
Positional Ranking: 31. Brian Thomas Jr. (JAX), 32. Keon Coleman (BUF), 33. Zay Flowers (BAL)
If you have somehow missed the clips of Coleman’s interviews, please go watch them. This kid is an absolute character and is one of the easiest players in this draft to root for. Plus, Coleman finds himself in an excellent situation as the clear outside target for Josh Allen.
With the departure of Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis, the situation couldn’t be much better. So why do I have him at the 2.04? Although his situation is full steam ahead, he has some question marks as a prospect. For example, he tested slow at the combine, however, has been praised for his in-game speed. He also struggles with creating separation but can make contested grabs.
I struggle to see him as the dominant top target for Allen, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they draft another WR in 2025. Coleman should have a great opportunity to prove himself this season, making him a rare second-round rookie pick with first-season fantasy potential.
WHOLESOME: A young #Bills fan wrote rookie Keon Coleman a letter and sent it with bracelets he made, Keon saw it and wore them for his official rookie pictures.
“This boy's day was MADE.”
👏👏👏
(Via @leslieanne94) pic.twitter.com/TRjQINyEun
— MLFootball (@_MLFootball) May 20, 2024
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Brian Thomas Jr. (WR, JAX)
Positional Ranking: 30. Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA), 31. Brian Thomas Jr. (JAX), 32. Keon Coleman (BUF)
I’ll be honest, I am very torn about Brian Thomas Jr. He is an absolute athletic specimen who ran a 4.33 40-yard dash time at 6-foot-3, 209 lbs. That’s scary and impressive. He also has impressive first-round draft capital as the Jaguars selected him with the 23rd overall pick.
What I am worried about is his prospect profile going into the NFL draft. I hate to say it, but his frequent use of body catches reminds me a lot of Quentin Johnston. However, his game is a lot more dynamic than last year’s disappointing first-round rookie WR.
Last season he managed to lead the FBS in touchdowns with 17 and frequently won both down the field and contested catches (the latter being something Johnston never had success at). Thomas Jr. now finds himself in a loaded receiving room with target monsters Christian Kirk and Evan Engram, along with free agent acquisition Davis. It will be hard for him to produce as a rookie consistently; however, if he can step into the role we hoped Calvin Ridley would succeed in, he could have a very bright future.
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Ladd McConkey (WR, LAC)
Positional Ranking: 28. George Pickens (PIT), 29. Ladd McConkey (LAC), 30. Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA)
This next tier of WRs is basically “dealer’s choice.” I believe these next prospects are a tier down from Worthy and Rome Odunze; however, they are all very solid. I like McConkey the most as a prospect, plus his situation is very good. McConkey has elite route running and arguably the most efficient movements in this class. As Josh Norris likes to say: “There is no fat to his game.”
He is now linked to Justin Herbert and an excellent coaching staff. This might be the last time for a while that you can jump on the Chargers, as they are primed to become a very successful team for years to come. Unfortunately for fantasy, this will probably be a result of running the ball more than any other team. However, when you have Herbert, I’m sure there will be moments where he pushes the ball downfield and makes those throws count.
I believe McConkey easily steps in as the top WR, ahead of Brampton Ontario’s Joshua Palmer and first-round disappointment Johnston. Plus, they just signed D.J. Chark, which I believe is an indictment on how they view QJ.
“Ladd McConkey is already the Chargers’ best receiver.” - @FieldYates pic.twitter.com/x3yERVhi52
— Establish The Run (@EstablishTheRun) May 14, 2024
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Bo Nix (QB, DEN)
Positional Ranking: 21. Will Levis (TEN), 22. Bo Nix (DEN), 23. Kirk Cousins (ATL)
This might come as a surprise to some, but I view Nix to be by far the safest pick in this tier. J.J. Zachariason has an excellent breakdown of first-round rookie QBs holding value, even if they don’t produce their first season. Although I think Sean Payton is the perfect coach to get the most out of Nix from the start, it’s good to know that if you want to cash out after his first season, you likely can.
As for Nix’s age, I am not too concerned. Once again, I like to look two-three-years away and with his age, he’ll still be a relatively young QB when that rolls around. It’s hard to find starting QBs this late in rookie drafts, and that’s exactly why you can find value in drafting Nix.
I will release two more articles breaking down my top 10 rookies later this week! I also contribute to FantasyPros Expert Consensus Rankings and create fantasy content on TikTok (@firesidefantasy_ffl).
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