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Milwaukee Brewers starting pitcher Josh Lindblom is a fantasy baseball sleeper and undervalued draft target for the 2020 MLB season. Sam Chinitz examines Lindblom's pitching profile from his years in the KBO and explains why his game might translate to the majors.
Josh Lindblom began his professional baseball career at 21-years-old in the Dodgers’ minor league system more than a decade ago, but the pitcher was never able to gain a foothold in the major leagues. Over his career so far, Lindblom has thrown 147 major league innings to go along with 497.1 minor league innings, owning a combined 4.23 ERA.
After the 2014 season, Lindblom left the major leagues for Korea, where he pitched for two seasons and posted an underwhelming 4.53 ERA. Lindblom then returned stateside for a year before going back to Korea in 2017 and finding immense success.
Over the past two seasons, Lindblom earned back-to-back pitcher of the year awards and an MVP award in the KBO. Along the way, Lindblom posted a 2.67 ERA over 363 innings with pinpoint command, walking just 1.66 batters per nine innings. Now 32 years old and coming off of his successful stint in the KBO, Lindblom is returning to the MLB as a starter for the Brewers.
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Breaking Out at 31 Years Old
Lindblom remade his arsenal while abroad, eliminating his once oft-used sinker and developing an effective splitter. Over the past two years, Lindblom primarily relied on a splitter, a four-seamer, and a cutter while also mixing in a changeup and a curveball. Lindblom figures to carry a similar pitch mix over to the MLB.
Although his fastball tops out at only about 91 mph, Lindblom reportedly generates plus spin on the pitch with a 2610 RPM spin rate that would’ve ranked ninth in the MLB last season. Lindblom also boasted a 1200 RPM spin rate on his splitter, good for the 12th best mark in the major leagues last year.
Combined with above-average command of all of his pitches, Lindblom has a solid shot of finding sustainable success in the major leagues this year.
Will Lindblom’s KBO Success Translate to the MLB?
Given his arsenal, Lindblom projects to rely on soft-contact rather than strikeouts for success. Lindblom’s pitch mix compares favorably to Dodgers pitcher Tony Gonsolin, who posted a 2.93 ERA and 3.86 FIP last year while primarily using a high-spin fastball, splitter, and slider. Gonsolin isn’t a perfect comparison, but the 25-year-old’s performance last season can shed some light on how Lindblom’s arsenal might translate to the MLB.
The most significant pitch mix differences between Gonsolin and Lindblom are as follows: Gonsolin has better velocity on his fastball then Lindblom, Gonsolin features his curveball more than Lindblom likely will, and Gonsolin has a slider where Lindblom has a cutter with reportedly significant horizontal break.
Lindblom’s lack of a featured curveball should have the smallest effect on his 2020 performance out of the differences listed above. Gonsolin used the pitch only 10% of the time last year, and although it suppressed bad contact to the tune of a 0.142 xwOBA, the pitch only generated whiffs at a 5.71% rate. Given Lindbloom’s superior command, the slider/cutter distinction and velocity difference likely give Gonsolin higher strikeout upside but little else. Overall, the differences between Lindblom and Gonsolin suggest that Gonsolin should throw for more strikeouts while Lindblom should do a better job of limiting walks and a similarly impressive job of inducing desirable contact.
With those differences in mind, Lindblom is likely looking at a ceiling of an ERA around 3.15 with a strikeout rate hovering around 20% and a walk rate near 5%. That level of upside makes Lindblom a bargain at his 354 ADP, where lower upside, similar floor pitchers like Rick Porcello and Merrill Kelly are already off the board.
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