2020 Offseason Starting Pitcher Rankings (Part 1) - Fantasy Baseball Mixed Leagues

It's never too early to start looking ahead to the next baseball season, so here we deliver our 2020 rankings to those of you looking to scratch your fantasy itch. Today we are bringing you part one of our 2020 starting pitcher rankings and analysis - you can read part two here. We know you're ready for the MLB season to begin and there's no better place to get a head start than right here. RotoBaller has got you covered with updated rankings all season long. We've assembled a collection of stout minds, including the #1 ranked expert from 2018, Nick Mariano, to help you get a jump start on your competition for the upcoming season.

With the Winter Meetings over and free-agency starting to materialize, there will be plenty of movement with these rankings before the draft season gets into full swing. Be sure to check in frequently during the offseason as we'll have updated rankings as soon as big names begin to change places.

After a record-setting year for offense and a sense among the industry that 2020 likely won't be dramatically different, being able to navigate the ever-murkier waters of starting pitching will continue to be of prime importance. Looking at last year's earnings at the position, stark tiers quickly reveal themselves, with two players earning over $40, followed by five players who earned over $20, and 13 who earned over $10. That's only 20 pitchers total who earned double-digit dollars in 12-team leagues, followed by a big mess of players who didn't. Now that's what I call murky.

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Starting Pitcher Ranks - 5x5 Mixed (December)

In case you missed it, our very own "Big Pick Nick" Mariano was named the #1 overall most accurate industry expert ranker for the 2018 season.

Ranking	Tier	Player	Position	Nick	Nick G	Riley
1	1	Gerrit Cole	SP	8	7	11
2	1	Justin Verlander	SP	12	10	15
3	1	Jacob deGrom	SP	15	13	10
4	2	Max Scherzer	SP	14	18	19
5	2	Walker Buehler	SP	25	21	24
6	2	Jack Flaherty	SP	28	24	31
7	2	Shane Bieber	SP	27	31	36
8	2	Mike Clevinger	SP	39	25	33
9	2	Blake Snell	SP	40	26	41
10	2	Stephen Strasburg	SP	29	36	46
11	2	Chris Sale	SP	34	49	37
12	2	Clayton Kershaw	SP	43	41	49
13	3	Charlie Morton	SP	58	45	65
14	3	Patrick Corbin	SP	62	64	57
15	3	Luis Severino	SP	50	67	69
16	3	Zack Greinke	SP	53	83	52
17	3	Aaron Nola	SP	56	48	87
18	3	Luis Castillo	SP	47	59	91
19	3	Yu Darvish	SP	72	61	64
20	3	Hyun-Jin Ryu	SP	76	77	54
21	3	Tyler Glasnow	SP	84	74	66
22	3	Lucas Giolito	SP	59	99	72
23	3	James Paxton	SP	91	70	70
24	4	Shohei Ohtani	DH/SP	74	68	100
25	4	Chris Paddack	SP	95	95	73
26	4	Corey Kluber	SP	64	126	77
27	4	Noah Syndergaard	SP	78	110	94
28	4	Jose Berrios	SP	83	118	99
29	4	Brandon Woodruff	SP	116	102	103
30	4	Mike Soroka	SP	119	133	79
31	4	Carlos Carrasco	SP	131	106	112
32	4	Dinelson Lamet	SP	154	91	118
33	5	Trevor Bauer	SP	132	144	114
34	5	Zac Gallen	SP	122	146	123
35	5	Sonny Gray	SP	139	159	96
36	5	Madison Bumgarner	SP	137	165	119
37	5	Frankie Montas	SP/RP	158	124	145
38	5	David Price	SP	134	172	132
39	5	Max Fried	SP	155	128	159
40	5	Lance Lynn	SP	128	136	186
41	5	Eduardo Rodriguez	SP	126	162	188
42	5	Masahiro Tanaka	SP	152	175	163
43	5	Jesus Luzardo	SP	165	153	173
44	5	Robbie Ray	SP	167	194	138
45	5	Zack Wheeler	SP	168	201	134
46	6	Mike Minor	SP	157	206	157
47	6	Carlos Martinez	SP/RP	188	196	150
48	6	Kyle Hendricks	SP	161	198	179
49	6	Matthew Boyd	SP	171	178	194
50	6	Caleb Smith	SP	176	184	183
51	6	Domingo German	SP	187	190	167
52	6	Sean Manaea	SP	166	182	198
53	6	Marcus Stroman	SP	169	227	169
54	6	Luke Weaver	SP	179	223	174
55	6	Julio Urias	SP/RP	184	187	210
56	6	Andrew Heaney	SP	189	155	240
57	6	German Marquez	SP	191	217	189
58	6	Mike Foltynewicz	SP	210	243	175
59	7	Dustin May	SP	221	211	212
60	7	Lance McCullers Jr.	SP	213	208	251
61	7	Kenta Maeda	SP/RP	235	234	206
62	7	Cole Hamels	SP	229	277	170
63	7	Ryan Yarbrough	SP	231	203	258
64	7	Jose Urquidy	SP	211	246	264
65	7	Miles Mikolas	SP	263	260	199
66	7	Jake Odorizzi	SP	223	267	235
67	7	Brendan McKay	SP	247	238	243
68	7	Dallas Keuchel	SP	245	282	217
69	8	Seth Lugo	SP/RP	254	241	296
70	8	Dylan Cease	SP	240	#N/A	304
71	8	Dakota Hudson	SP	297	#N/A	250
72	8	Griffin Canning	SP	246	262	318
73	8	Michael Kopech	SP	268	250	313
74	8	Joey Lucchesi	SP	294	292	255
75	8	Mike Fiers	SP	269	271	311
76	8	John Means	SP	360	294	204
77	8	Jon Gray	SP	282	#N/A	294
78	8	Joe Musgrove	SP	327	#N/A	252
79	8	A.J. Puk	SP	334	#N/A	249
80	8	Yonny Chirinos	SP	367	284	227
81	9	Zach Plesac	SP	293	297	298
82	9	Garrett Richards	SP	298	299	#N/A
83	9	Jose Quintana	SP	228	296	372
84	9	Steven Matz	SP	258	264	376
85	9	Mitch Keller	SP	283	291	324
86	9	Ross Stripling	SP/RP	295	276	335
87	9	Chris Archer	SP	276	279	353
88	9	Rich Hill	SP	296	269	347
89	9	Anibal Sanchez	SP	277	289	348
90	9	Diego Castillo	RP/SP	308	#N/A	#N/A
91	9	Reynaldo Lopez	SP	312	#N/A	309
92	9	Nate Pearson	SP	373	256	#N/A
93	10	Chad Green	SP/RP	322	288	352
94	10	Homer Bailey	SP	326	#N/A	#N/A
95	10	Jon Lester	SP	375	#N/A	281
96	10	Brent Honeywell Jr.	SP	#N/A	#N/A	331
97	10	Adrian Houser	SP	356	#N/A	308
98	10	Nathan Eovaldi	SP/RP	447	#N/A	224
99	10	Pablo Lopez	SP	355	#N/A	320
100	10	Sandy Alcantara	SP	380	#N/A	305
101	10	Casey Mize	SP	350	#N/A	340
102	10	MacKenzie Gore	SP	392	#N/A	299
103	10	Jordan Lyles	SP	390	#N/A	303
104	10	Jeff Samardzija	SP	412	#N/A	286
105	10	Ian Anderson	SP	353	#N/A	#N/A
106	10	Anthony DeSclafani	SP	389	#N/A	321
107	10	Wade Miley	SP	381	#N/A	329
108	10	Johnny Cueto	SP	357	#N/A	#N/A
109	10	Forrest Whitley	SP	358	#N/A	#N/A
110	10	Tyler Mahle	SP	362	#N/A	#N/A
111	10	Merrill Kelly	SP	370	#N/A	358
112	11	Cal Quantrill	SP	371	#N/A	#N/A
113	11	Alex Young	SP	453	#N/A	289
114	11	Josh Lindblom	SP	385	#N/A	364
115	11	Julio Teheran	SP	384	#N/A	366
116	11	J.A. Happ	SP	377	#N/A	375
117	11	Jordan Yamamoto	SP	376	#N/A	#N/A
118	11	Jakob Junis	SP	383	#N/A	#N/A
119	11	Matt Strahm	RP/SP	428	#N/A	342
120	11	Aaron Civale	SP	491	285	#N/A
121	11	Sixto Sanchez	SP	391	#N/A	#N/A
122	11	Michael Pineda	SP	413	#N/A	370
123	11	Marco Gonzales	SP	393	#N/A	#N/A
124	11	Trevor Richards	SP/RP	433	#N/A	360
125	11	Kyle Gibson	SP	457	#N/A	337
126	11	Rick Porcello	SP	399	#N/A	#N/A
127	12	Alex Wood	SP	401	#N/A	#N/A
128	12	Freddy Peralta	SP/RP	402	#N/A	#N/A
129	12	Matt Manning	SP	407	#N/A	#N/A
130	12	Zach Eflin	SP	490	#N/A	330
131	12	Deivi Garcia	SP	410	#N/A	#N/A
132	12	Drew Pomeranz	SP/RP	415	#N/A	#N/A
133	12	Randy Dobnak	SP/RP	421	#N/A	#N/A
134	12	Alex Reyes	SP/RP	513	#N/A	336
135	12	Logan Webb	SP	429	#N/A	#N/A
136	12	Anthony Kay	SP	430	#N/A	#N/A
137	12	Tyler Beede	SP	439	#N/A	#N/A
138	12	Kolby Allard	SP	441	#N/A	#N/A
139	12	Brad Keller	SP	444	#N/A	#N/A
140	12	Brad Peacock	RP/SP	445	#N/A	#N/A
141	12	Adam Wainwright	SP	452	#N/A	#N/A
142	12	Chase Anderson	SP	455	#N/A	#N/A
143	12	Joe Ross	SP	456	#N/A	#N/A
144	12	Dylan Bundy	SP	458	#N/A	#N/A
145	13	Jose Urena	SP	460	#N/A	#N/A
146	13	Mike Montgomery	SP/RP	463	#N/A	#N/A
147	13	Jake Arrieta	SP	464	#N/A	#N/A
148	13	Drew Smyly	SP	467	#N/A	#N/A
149	13	Spencer Turnbull	SP	471	#N/A	#N/A
150	13	Collin McHugh	SP/RP	473	#N/A	#N/A
151	13	Andrew Cashner	RP/SP	477	#N/A	#N/A
152	13	Trevor Williams	SP	478	#N/A	#N/A
153	13	Chris Bassitt	SP	481	#N/A	#N/A
154	13	Vince Velasquez	SP	483	#N/A	#N/A
155	13	Michael Fulmer	SP	484	#N/A	#N/A
156	13	Jose Suarez	SP	485	#N/A	#N/A
157	13	Yusei Kikuchi	SP	489	#N/A	#N/A
158	13	Asher Wojciechowski	SP/RP	495	#N/A	#N/A
159	13	Martin Perez	SP	499	#N/A	#N/A
160	13	Eric Lauer	SP	500	#N/A	#N/A
161	13	Kevin Gausman	SP	502	#N/A	#N/A
162	13	Corbin Burnes	SP/RP	503	#N/A	#N/A
163	13	Tanner Roark	SP	506	#N/A	#N/A
164	13	Mike Leake	SP	507	#N/A	#N/A
165	13	Tony Gonsolin	SP	508	#N/A	#N/A
166	13	Taijuan Walker	SP	510	#N/A	#N/A
167	13	Elieser Hernandez	SP/RP	515	#N/A	#N/A
168	13	Gio Gonzalez	SP	516	#N/A	#N/A
169	13	Ivan Nova	SP	517	#N/A	#N/A
170	13	Zach Davies	SP	519	#N/A	#N/A

 

Tier One

Having just signed for $324 million, brand new Yankee Gerrit Cole finds himself at the top of our pitcher rankings after a dominant season for Houston. After breaking out for the Astros in 2018, Cole took another giant leap forward in 2019, with a 2.50 ERA and 0.89 WHIP over 212.1 innings, with 326 strikeouts. That was good for a second-place finish in the Cy Young award, earning $44.2 in 12-team leagues according to the Fangraphs auction calculator and Steamer doesn't expect much less from Cole in 2020, projecting him to be the top-earning pitcher in 2020. Just how dominant was Cole? Try a record-setting 33.9% K-BB% that was led by his four-seamer and its league-leading 43.8% K-rate, along with a cutter and curveball that both had strikeout rates around 38%. If you're going to risk taking a pitcher in the top-10, Cole has the skillset to justify the decision.

Then we have the "old" man that Cole is leaving behind in Houston, reigning Cy Young winner Justin Verlander. Entering his 15th season in the majors, it's hard to believe that Verlander will still just be 37 years old by the start of the season and is also somehow coming off of arguably the best year of his career. Verlander's final line in 2019 was eye-popping, finishing with a 2.58 ERA and an absolutely insane 0.80 WHIP in 223 innings, with 21 wins and 300 strikeouts. His 35.4% K-rate and 16.1% swinging-strike rate were both even higher than the career-high rates he posted in 2018, perhaps due to the continuing evolution of his pitch mix. Verlander's fastball velocity did drop by 0.5 mph compared to 2018 but he also went from throwing it 60% of the time to 51% in 2019, swapping its usage for 6% more sliders and 4% more curveballs. In addition to the increased usage, Verlander also starting throwing his curveball tighter while more than doubling the vertical movement of his slider. While he will almost certainly regress from 2019's numbers, I see little reason worry about a giant drop from Verlander, giving him one of the safest floors at the position.

You're really splitting hairs by saying that a reigning Cy Young winner was worse than the year before but these hairs are what matters when you're dealing with the level of pitching in the first tier. Jacob deGrom passed 200 innings for the third-straight year, with walk- and strikeout-rates that were near carbon-copies of his rates in 2018 but a 2.67 ERA that wasn't quite as spectacular as his 1.99 ERA the year prior, as well as a 0.97 WHIP up from a 0.91 WHIP. Looking at these changes through a fantasy lens, deGrom "only" earned $30.7 in 12-team leagues this season, after earning $39.1 in 2018 but Steamer likes his chances for a rebound in 2020, projecting him to pitch 204 innings and earn $38.4. However, looking at his 3.29 SIERA this past year and comparing his seasons from 2017-19, it seems to me that we're more likely to get a repeat of the deGrom in 2017 and 2019, rather than the one in 2018. Which is still (literally) Cy Young award-winning levels of great. Just not with the ceiling of the two pitchers I have ahead of him.

 

Tier Two

I have to imagine I'd have Max Scherzer neck-and-neck with Verlander, if not for the myriad of injuries that he suffered this past season. While not as dominant as the previous two years, Mad Max was still fantastic in 2019, finishing with a 2.92 ERA and a 35.1% K-rate. However, Scherzer hit the injured list multiple times for ailments in his back, shoulder, and neck, with his 172 innings pitched the lowest number he's posted since 2009. While his skills are obviously elite, Scherzer still draws a lot of his fantasy value from just how much of an innings-eater he's been, having pitched over 220 innings in four of the past five seasons prior to 2019, as well as over 200 innings in six-straight years. I'd love to believe that he'll return in 2020 and go right back to pitching 200 IP+ but the biggest predictor of injuries in the future are injuries in the past and Scherzer just had himself a whole plate of them.

Like I wasn't going to talk about Jack Flaherty... Captain Jack finished the season with a 2.75 ERA and 0.97 WHIP over 196.1 innings, going 11-8 with 231 strikeouts and finished fourth in the Cy Young race, but his final line doesn't give nearly enough justice to just how dominant Flaherty was for the last three months of the season. It might be cheating to pick arbitrary endpoints but with Flaherty, the changes in his results were so dramatic starting on July 7 that it's easy to take note of the date. In his first 17 starts and 90 innings, the Cardinals starter went 4-5 with a 4.90 ERA and 1.29 WHIP after carrying a premium price on draft day, with his 59 ADP in NFBC leagues sandwiching him right between Clayton Kershaw and Mike Clevinger. With his owners beginning to curse him as a bust, Flaherty then went full-on Lincoln Hawk in his last start before the All-Star break and never slowed his big rig down.

How big was that switch he flipped? In the two starts prior to July 7, Flaherty gave up 11 earned runs. Following those two starts, he only allowed a total of 11 earned runs the remainder of the season and allowed one run or fewer in 13 of his final 16 starts. In those 16 final starts and 106.1 innings, Flaherty posted a 0.96 ERA and a 0.70 WHIP, striking out batters out at a 33% clip. And while his 4.90 ERA was unsightly in the first half of 2019, he was still posting great strikeout-rates and had also seen a small velocity boost in his fastball versus 2018. In the second half, he not only saw more increases in his fastball velocity but also started throwing his nasty slider more, increasing its rate to almost 30%. There will surely be some regression in 2020, as Flaherty had a .196 BABIP over that stretch and a 95% strand-rate but I think we saw the ascension of a young ace in the second half of 2019, someone that's not yet top-tier but is only 24-years old and knocking on the door.

I have Mike Clevinger and Blake Snell directly behind Flaherty and really see the three pitchers as being near equals, in terms of both expected production and ceiling. It was a strange arc for Clevinger last year and it's easy to see how he dropped off the radar a bit after starting off the year on fire. Clevinger gave up just two hits total in his first two starts of the season, striking out 22 batters in 12 innings and flashing a fancy, new bump in his velocity. He then hit the shelf with a strained muscle in his upper back, didn't return until over two months later and promptly got rocked in his first two starts back, giving up a combined 12 earned runs in 6.1 innings. After that, however, Clevinger went right back to piling up stacks of fantasy cash, with his $16.50 earned in 12-team leagues making him the 15th-highest pitcher using the Fangraphs auction calculator, just behind the $16.80 of Walker Buehler. The difference is that Clevinger accomplished those numbers in 56 fewer innings, earning at a rate of $0.131/IP that only trailed Cole, Verlander, and Degrom among pitchers who reached at least 100 innings.

Perhaps I'm too high on Snell returning back to form in 2020, after a rollercoaster of poor performance and injury in 2019. First, the injury, with Snell missing almost two months in August and September after having arthroscopic elbow surgery to remove loose bodies. Prior to having surgery in late July, the reigning AL Cy Young winner was exactly putting up eye-popping numbers, posting a 4.28 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in his first 101 innings of the year. He still was striking out fools with extreme prejudice, though, with his 12.1 K/9 actually a full-batter improvement over his 11.0 mark in 2018 and his 3.12 BB/9 is high but still slightly lower than last year.

So, what gives? If he's striking out more and walking less, how did a 1.89 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in 2018 balloon to a 4.28 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in 2019, prior to his injury? For one, there's a .339 BABIP this year that ran at .241 in 2018 and his 15.7% HR/FB was a big jump from the 11%-rate that he had in 2017-2018. And taking a look at Statcast, Snell's numbers seem a little rosier,  as his .205 xBA was in the top-9% of the league, with a .264 xwOBA in the top-8% and .327 xSLG that was top-7%.

Besides the batted-ball luck, it's not unreasonable to think that the loose bodies in his elbow may have been affecting Snell's performance over the course of the year, making me bullish for a comeback in 2020. Snell came back to make three very limited starts in late September - never facing more than 12 batters - before starting one game in the playoffs and working out of the bullpen in two more, allowing one run in 5.1 innings while striking out seven and walking none. I'm not ever going to bank on the sub-2.00 ERA that he put up in 2018 but if he's as healthy as he seemed in September/October and continues to post elite strikeout numbers, I'm comfortable projecting Snell right back in the mix of the best second-tier pitchers.

Let's move from an injured pitcher I'm confident in, to one I am much more trepidatious about, Boston starter Chris Sale. Say it with me again: The biggest predictor of future injuries is past injuries. Long before Sale made 30 or more starts in five of six years between 2012-2017, evaluators (and fantasy players) worried that his violent delivery might be better served in the bullpen*. Umm...not exactly. Sale has mostly been a bulwark of health but that changed in 2018, with Sale making 27 starts after dealing with left shoulder inflammation in August/September. He returned in 2019 and fell flat on his face, going 0-5 through his first six starts with a 6.30 ERA but then rebounded in May and June before starting to spiral at the end of the month. Three straight five-run outings, two okay starts, and then 14 total earned runs in back-to-back starts against the Yankees at the end of July.

Sale owners got a brief respite and stepped back from the ledge after he went eight shutout innings with 13 strikeouts in his next time out, and then continued to breathe easier with a three-run, 12 K performance in his next turn. Chris Sale is back, baby! Whew, that was a close one!  And then...? Simply the most terrifying thing you can see scroll across a bottom line:

"Chris Sale being shutdown with left elbow inflammation, will consult with Dr. James Andrews. No timetable for return."

Sale avoided Tommy John surgery and is currently back to throwing, claiming that he will be fully ready for spring training. Maybe he will and will return to his 200+ inning self in 2020, giving all the owners who took a chance on him in early drafts a rich reward. The closer we get to Opening Day, the more Sale will move up my rankings; but sitting here in December I consider it stretch to assume that he'll reach 30 starts.

My other question is, even if Sale returns to his innings-load of season's past, which Sale are we getting? While I have full confidence that the elite strikeout numbers aren't going anywhere (with Sale posting K-rates over 35% for three straight years) but he also gave up five earned runs or more in seven of his 25 starts in 2019, after having only one such game in 2018 and four in 2017. It also should be noted for those playing in head-to-head formats, that Sale has been pretty brutal for his owners in August/September over the last three seasons. This may not matter in roto as much, as banked stats are banked stats, but if you've had to count on Sale for your stretch run these past few years, then I expect you've cursed his name more than once. If I'm using a premium pick on a pitcher, I need a relative level of safety and Sale just isn't that for me anymore.

*Full disclosure author's note: I'm definitely not bitter that I turned down a trade in my home league for Sale in 2011, citing, "He'll end up in the bullpen, constantly hurt, or both." Sale's owner wanted Jered Weaver and Jeremy Hellickson. I'll just stop talking now.

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