Craig Rondinone profiles Tampa Bay Bucs running back (RB) Jacquizz Rodgers as a fantasy football sleeper and draft value for the 2017 season based on ADP.

Who would have thought that Jacquizz Rodgers could go from scatback to sleeper in less than a year's time?

All fantasy football eyes have been on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the preseason to see how the Bucs are going to use the tight end tandem of Cameron Brate and O.J. Howard and how newly-acquired deep threat extraordinaire DeSean Jackson will open up secondary space for Pro Bowl pass catcher Mike Evans.

But while quarterback Jameis Winston is salivating over all the talented hands ready to catch his passes, Tampa Bay’s top tailback, Doug Martin, is suspended for the first three games of the upcoming season due to violating the NFL’s substance abuse policy at the end of 2016. That means Rodgers will be the Bucs’ starting tailback at the beginning of the season, and maybe for a lot longer if everything plays out perfectly for him.

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From Fantasy Zero to Fantasy Hero

Rodgers is an undersized (5’6”, 205) change-of-pace back who most football experts and fantasy pundits assumed would be used only on passing downs when he entered the NFL, and they were primarily right for the first five seasons of his professional career as Rodgers had about as much fantasy value as Tom Brady’s backups usually do. Rodgers never had 100 carries, a 4.0 yards per carry average, or more than four touchdowns in any season between 2011 and 2015. His only positive fantasy attribute were his receptions as he had back-to-back 50-catch campaigns in 2012 and 2013.

Rodgers proved to his detractors and doubters that he can be an every-down workhorse who can carry the ball more than five times per game, though, during a three-game stretch where he had 75 rushing attempts for 324 yards and a touchdown while filling in for an injured Martin last year. He showed he could run between the tackles and that his body was durable enough to handle the every-down pounding a No. 1 RB takes in the NFL. This is why Rodgers will be Tampa Bay’s bellcow back in Martin’s absence and not third-down specialist Charles Sims.

Martin is No Lock to Rock

Martin is as unpredictable as Dave Matthews’ set lists. In five seasons, he has rushed for 1,400 yards twice and for under 500 yards the other three years. Sone fantasy experts might think that Martin could pull a Bret Saberhagen and be great again this season after finishing second in the 2015 rushing race (1,402 yards) and then flopping harder than the last Pirates of the Caribbean movie in 2016 (2.9 ypc). But Martin’s off-the-field issues and inconsistent track record make him one of the riskiest running backs to draft in fantasy football – while making Rodgers one of the most attractive sleepers.    

Rodgers is in line for 15-20 carries and three-to-five receptions per game when Tampa Bay plays its opening trio of contests. Those contests come against the Miami Dolphins, Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings, who finished 30^th, 27^th and 20^th respectively in run defense in 2016. If Rodgers runs against those defenses like he did when he spot started last season, he will at worst split carries with Martin when “The Muscle Hamster” returns, and at best will keep the starting spot and reduce Martin’s role to reserve.

From Sleeper to Starter?  

What Rodgers does during the three games Martin is suspended will likely determine his fantasy worth for the rest of the 2017 season. Many fantasy owners will shy away from Rodgers, thinking his fantasy value will be limited to those three games and be ruined when Martin comes back. Taking a late-round flyer on Rodgers to be the third-to-fifth-best back on your fantasy roster is a smart sleeper strategy. Rodgers will surely be solid for fantasy purposes for at least three games, and he could end up being solid for the full season.

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