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Brad Leibfried's top 10 betting picks for March Madness and Round 1. His free college basketball bets and recommended wagers for the 2022 NCAA Tournament.
The 2021-2022 college basketball regular season and conference tournaments are now in the books, and it's time for the big show! With a newly revealed NCAA Tournament bracket, we have finally made it to the long-awaited single elimination tournament that America has fallen in love with. And unlike the last few years, we should have less concerns about games being played or players missing the games.
There will be some great games and some big upsets, and we can add to all the fun with some betting picks. As is the case every year, there are trendy picks to go along with some stacked blue bloods that figure to be popular picks. With the amount of data out there it can sometimes be a bit overwhelming, so in this article we will look to zoom in on a few games and matchups where there should be an advantage.
Here are 10 of the top college basketball betting picks for the First Round of the NCAA Tournament (Friday and Saturday, March 17 and 18, 2022). Once you're done here, be sure to also check out the rest of our NCAA Tournament articles and analysis including previews, predictions, sleepers, busts and guides on how to fill out your brackets. You can access all of our latest sports betting promos, and sign up for Caesars Sportsbook here.
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St. Peter's vs Kentucky
UNDER 132
This will be a game most just gloss over, as it's one of the most storied programs in history against a relative unknown. The game result is not in doubt, but the total is an interesting play here. Kentucky comes in as the best rebounding team in the country, grabbing 57.1% of all available rebounds. This means that’s their opponents essentially get one shot attempt per possession and not much at the hoop. Kentucky is also 27th in KenPom defensive efficiency.
However the real standout stat here is St. Peter’s coming in at 34th in KenPom defense, a generally unheard of number for a 15 seed. For reference, the other three 15 seeds rank 164th, 178th and 212th in defensive efficiency. That should bode well for the under, especially against a Kentucky team that is 115th in three-point rate this year. To put a cherry on top of the sundae, St. Peter shoots 48.7% of their shots at the rim, number one in the tournament -- however they only shoot 66.9% on those attempts, dead last in the tournament.
Vermont vs Arkansas
OVER 139.5
On the other side of the spectrum, look for this mid-major SEC matchup to really pick up the pace. Arkansas should set the pace here as they are 28th in the country in possessions per game, and score 76.9 points per game. On the flip side, just looking at the pace numbers will scare some off as Vermont is 331st in pace. However the Catamounts more than make up for that in efficiency, as they are 7th in the country at 1.125 points per possession on the season.
Vermont likes to shoot the ball from deep, as they are 36.4% from three-point land this year, while Arkansas makes their money from the free-throw line. The Razorbacks rank second in the country in both free-throws attempted and free-throws made this year, which gives him a rock solid base for points. When you combine a high pace team that shoots free-throws in bunches, with an ultra-efficient three-point shooting team, you get what should be an easy over.
Davidson vs Michigan St.
Davidson +1
One of my favorite bets of the entire slate is Davidson over Michigan State. Davidson is an elite shooting team, as they are in top ten in both volume and efficiency on catch-and-shoot threes. They are also in the top five for field goal percentage. Along with great shooting, they really take care of the ball well, as they are sixth in the field with just a 14.8% turnover rate.
Michigan State on the other end has a public name and a decent 21-12 record. However, if you dig deeper you will find a ton of stats that the Spartans record are really inflated due to some outlier shooting games. They continue to take some of the worst shots in the country, and that is bound to catch up with them. It also should be noted that point guard Tyson Walker left the Big 10 tournament with an ankle injury and is questionable at best to play.
Chattanooga vs Illinois
Chattanooga +7.5
Throughout the year, Illinois would enter nearly every game with a massive advantage inside due to the presence of Kofi Cockburn. Interestingly enough, one team that advantage might be somewhat muted is against a Chattanooga team that can roll out former 5-star Kansas big man Silvio DeSousa.
DeSousa is not an elite shot blocker, but he is a big body that could slow down Cockburn. It also should help that the Mocs are 30th in the country in three-point defense. Chattanooga also has Malachi Smith in the backcourt, the SoCon player of the year who can fill it up in bunches.
South Dakota St. vs Providence
South Dakota St. +2.5
This might be the most popular pick of the entire first round, but the numbers certainly stand out here. The Jacks are one of the best offenses in the country, shooting a sparkling 44.2% from three-point range as a team. They also have a massive 60.2% eFG% on non-transition possessions, by far the best in the country.
On the other side, Providence has been living on the right side of luck this entire year, as most predictive metrics have them lower than their record would indicate. In games decided by five points or less this year they were a remarkable 11-2, which suggests they are in for major regression. A 27 point blowout loss in the Big East tournament did little to dispel the concerns of many. You should try and secure this +2.5 line early, as it might end up moving to even by the time we reach tip off.
San Diego St vs Creighton
San Diego St. -2 and UNDER 120
As always, the other SDSU comes into this game with an absolutely lock-down defense. The Aztecs are 2nd in defensive efficiency, 2nd in % of shots their opponents get in transition, and sixth in two-point defense. SDSU is also 313th in pace on the year, which means fewer opportunities for both to score.
Creighton has also flipped their normal script, as their offense-first approach has changed to more of a defense-first idea. Center Ryan Kalkbrenner is an elite shot blocker in the post, and has helped Creighton to an elite two-point defense that only allows 43.5% shooting on two-point attempts this year. Furthermore, the Bluejays stud freshman point guard Ryan Nembhard is out for the year, which is not a great factor going up against this elite defense.
Iowa St. vs LSU
Iowa St. +4.5
This may be the most up-in-the-air game of the first round after LSU fired their coach Will Wade last week. There is no way to know what to expect from the Tigers. On the Iowa State end, they ended on a whimper getting absolutely destroyed by Texas Tech in the Big 12 tournament. However, they are a stellar 9-8 in Quad 1 games this year, due in large part to their defense.
This is more of a play on the fact that it has to be a distraction for LSU, a team who has multiple players who could easily be on their way out as soon as the season ends.
UAB vs. Houston
UAB +8.5
Houston is likely to be a popular play, as they were just dominant against Memphis on Selection Sunday and have a gaudy 29-5 record. However, looking a bit deeper, Houston did not have a Quad 1 win all season until the last game of the year. They are also missing two top options in Tramon Mark and Marcus Sasser, which could catch up to them here.
On the UAB side, Jelly Walker was the C-USA player of the year, and paced an offense that put up 80.7 points per game on the season. They also have Quan Jackson, who had multiple steals in 27 games this year, and could cause problems for a Houston team that turned it over in 17.2% of their possessions this season.
Favorite Parlay
Money Line for Baylor, Tennessee, Gonzaga, Kentucky, UCLA, Texas Tech, Villanova and Duke
This is not going to break the bank, as picking all of these on the money line only gets you odds of roughly -300. None of these teams look to be even close to danger in round one. All are 12+ point favorites and have massive physical advantages over their opponents. Again, it's not the hot upset pick -- but when you are cashing the ticket, you will be happier than the guy who lost betting on a 16 seed to pull off the upset.
Thanks for reading, and remember to gamble responsibly.
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