RADIO
We’re at the point of the fantasy season where players essentially are what they are. There have been some severely disappointing studs, unexpected breakouts, and players who have simply maintained their draft day value. Whichever category certain guys fall into, this week’s recap is going to take a slightly more long-term view as far as what you can expect for the rest of the season. That said, there are still some key story lines we should address right off the bat.
Perhaps the biggest surprise of the NFL season thus far has been the inconsistency of the Denver Broncos offense. Between Peyton Manning and the mess that is the team’s backfield, it’s been rather frustrating to own a Bronco this year. Six weeks in, I actually think you can safely bench Peyton provided you have a decent option on your bench. The old adage that states Father Time is undefeated couldn’t be more applicable than it is with Manning right now. He just looks old; that’s all there is to it. He’s not going to finish as a top five fantasy quarterback this year so if you’ve managed to scoop up Tyrod Taylor (when healthy) or Carson Palmer, it’s best to roll with the hot hand the rest of the way. We’ll get to the rest of the key players on this team when we talk about their matchup with the Browns.
The other main development that caused a ton of concern this weekend was the disappearing act Eddie Lacy pulled off. The Green Bay Packers actually gave James Starks the start, leaving Lacy on the pine for just three rushing yards. Head coach Mike McCarthy did say that Lacy is “banged up” but the fact of the matter is it could be argued that Starks has been the more productive back anyway. The team did say they would try to ride the hot hand at RB so between the performance and transparency provided, Starks should be viewed as the number one waiver pickup this week. You can’t bench Lacy just yet but you can absolutely start James Starks if you’re having some depth issues.
Now for the game-by-game analysis.
Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints
This was a rather sloppy showing out of an Atlanta team that had been turning some heads as of late. The team struggled with wonky turnovers but it was Devonta Freeman who had another huge outing once again. He finished the day with 156 total yards and two touchdowns, re-emphasizing that he is absolutely a legit top-five RB this season. The rest of the Falcons offense had a down game outside of Julio Jones putting up 93 yards but overall this is a rather fantasy-friendly offense so there’s no need to panic.
The Saints continue to spread the ball around offensively with tight end Benjamin Watson being the primary beneficiary this week. Watson ended up with 127 yards and a score while running back Mark Ingram ran for two touchdowns of his own. It’s been made abundantly clear that New Orleans isn’t the passing offensive juggernaut it once was so it’s best to chalk up Watson’s performance as a one-time deal. Willie Snead continues to be the team’s leading receiver so he’s the only Saints pass-catcher you can start with moderate confidence.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Minnesota Vikings
It would appear that the Charcandrick West hype train has come to a screeching halt after just one game. The Chiefs turned to their backup running back in West yet he only had nine carries for 33 yards. Fellow rusher Knile Davis had just five attempts for 13 yards so it would appear that this ground attack is going to need a few games to get back up to speed. Until either guy puts up some solid numbers, this is looking like a situation to temporarily avoid as long as you have enough depth at the position. The Chiefs also lost Jeremy Maclin to a concussion in this game so we’ll have to wait a few days to see how he progresses through the protocol.
Adrian Peterson had an average game for Adrian Peterson standards but it was rookie wide receiver Stefon Diggs who exploded for 129 yards on seven receptions. This is a Vikings team that is desperate for a consistent pass-catcher so it was nice to see the young fellow end up with back-to-back impressive outings. Having said that, this offense will continue to run through Peterson with minimal upside out of their wide receivers so Diggs shouldn’t be viewed as nothing more than an upside stash. He’s absolutely worth an add; I just don’t think you can count on this level of production on a consistent basis.
Denver Broncos @ Cleveland Browns
The aforementioned Broncos offense finally managed to get some solid production out of one of it’s running backs with Ronnie Hillman racking up 111 yards on 20 carries. I don’t always toot my own horn in these pieces but I’d like to take a second to pat myself on the back for saying Hillman would have a nice game against a terrible Cleveland run defense. It’s now clear who is the better back in Denver so Hillman is the only one you should be starting going forward. Still, I don’t trust that this team can move the ball on the ground with the same level of production against better defenses. Like we’ve said plenty of times before, the Browns are simply awful against opposing running backs so Hillman’s breakout shouldn’t come as a huge shock.
Emmanuel Sanders left this game with a shoulder injury but luckily the Broncos have a bye in week seven so we have plenty of time to figure out the severity of his injury. Either way, I’d honestly be looking to sell both of Denver’s primary receivers given how awful Peyton Manning looks. Do you really want to head into the fantasy playoffs with a wide receiver who has a quarterback that looks super old tossing him the ball? Because I sure don’t. I’d try to flip either guy for some sort of package like maybe Amari Cooper and LaGarrete Blount, something along those lines.
As for the Browns, tight end Gary Barnidge has been the biggest surprise at the tight end position this year. He appears to be a touchdown machine with Josh McCown looking for him in the endzone with legitimate consistency. He’s now firmly entrenched in that lower tier of tight ends in the 8-12 range so you can depend on him on a week-to-week basis. Wide receiver Travis Benjamin should be taken seriously as well now with another 100+ yard day. The name might not be all that sexy but you can’t ignore the production at this point. He’s a high upside WR3 going forward.
Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions
If you ever needed some reassurance as to why you always start your studs, take a gander at Alshon Jeffery’s numbers in his first game back. Jeffery reeled in eight receptions for 147 yards and a touchdown so it’s safe to say he’s back to normal after missing four straight games with a hamstring injury. He’s clearly a top-12 fantasy wide receiver the rest of the way barring any new health concerns.
Matthew Stafford had a much needed bounce back game here, tossing for four touchdowns with 405 yards to boot. What’s even more reassuring is the fact that 166 yards and one of those touchdowns went to Calvin Johnson. Stafford has struggled to feed Megatron the ball all year so here’s hoping that this is a sign of things to come. With an extremely favorable schedule coming ups, now is probably the last chance you have to buy low on Calvin. As for this team’s running backs, you can safely drop anyone and everyone until they show us anything. No one can get anything going out of the backfield so there’s no way you can start any of them with confidence.
Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Tight end Julius Thomas had his first big game for the Jaguars here with 78 yards and a score although it should be noted that wide receiver Allen Robinson left this game with a leg injury. Between Thomas, Robinson, and Allen Hurns, this has turned into a surprisingly productive offense as it pertains to fantasy so all three guys should be viewed as usable. Having said that, it’s difficult to evaluate where each guy ranks specifically considering the overall lack of health between them. Robinson and Thomas (who suffered a minor injury here) should suit up in London against the Bills this week. Hopefully that gives us a little more clarity as to how all three players are used going forward.
Arian Foster is showing us why he would have been a clear top-10 fantasy running back if he started the year out healthy. He finished this game with 112 total yards and a receiving touchdown so in short, he’s a stud. Besides, given how shaky some of the other high-end running backs have been this year, would it really shock anyone if Foster ended the year in the top five? Also, DeAndre Hopkins is a superstar in the making. Garbage time fantasy points count all the same so take ‘em wherever you can get ‘em.
Miami Dolphins @ Tennessee Titans
Isn’t it amazing what a change in head coach can do for an offense? New Dolphins head coach Dan Campbell had expressed an interest in re-emphasizing the ground game and boy did they ever against the Titans this week. Lamar Miller had 19 rushes for 113 yards and a score, numbers that should automatically assert him back in the top-12 fantasy RB discussion. Miller was drafted as someone who had that sort of upside so if Miami is now showing us their hand as far as their new offensive strategy is concerned, Miller is the perfect buy low candidate.
Marcus Mariota injured his MCL in this game, putting his week seven status in doubt. If Mariota were to miss any time, I actually think Zach Mettenberger is a suitable NFL backup quarterback. He doesn’t really possess any fantasy value at QB but he should be decent enough to continue to get the ball to tight end Delanie Walker. Walker was already the only other player you could count on in fantasy so I don’t think his value would change that much with Mettenberger throwing him the ball. I was avoiding all of the other Titans anyway so there isn’t much else to see here.
Arizona Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Steelers
It’s no secret that the Pittsburgh Steelers are no longer the defensive force they once were but they might actually be underrated at this point. They managed to hold one of the better offenses in football to just 13 points when facing the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday. Carson Palmer did manage to put up 421 yards but still, the Cardinals have been excellent offensively so I’d take this as a sign that the Steelers could be a sneaky defensive streaming option given the right matchup. Offensively, the passing game continues to struggle with Michael Vick under center but now that he’s nursing a hamstring injury, Landry Jones actually gives this team a boost. Martavis Bryant in particular was the primary beneficiary, racking up 137 yards with two touchdowns. Jones looked like the better quarterback so if Ben Roethlisberger misses one more game against Kansas City, I think you can breathe a little easier if you own any Steeler wide receivers.
Going back to the Cardinals, 196 of Palmer’s 421 yards went to wide receiver John Brown. I had talked up John Brown as the Arizona receiver I’d prefer to own during the preseason and although I had that call wrong thanks to the Larry Fitzgerald resurgence, Brown has shown he can be useful as well. He’s not worth more than an upside WR3 play but again, this offense is potent enough that he’s still worth starting. Rushing wise, Chris Johnson continues to be the lead dog out of the backfield with Andre Ellington getting just one carry. I still think this backfield ends up being closer to a committee by year’s end but until that actually occurs, Chris Johnson absolutely remains start-worthy as an RB2.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Buffalo Bills
I keep ragging on Andy Dalton about how he’s eventually going to come crashing back down to earth in fantasy but he keeps proving me wrong. He tossed another three touchdowns in this game so I guess I just have to continue to eat my words. I wouldn’t want Dalton to be my only fantasy quarterback but as long as he keeps up this level of production, he’s worth trotting out there. Jeremy Hill salvaged his fantasy day by running in a dump-off pass for a touchdown. The other reassuring aspect of Hill’s outing was the fact that he had twice as many rushing attempts as his counterpart Giovani Bernard. I keep saying that as long as the volume is there, Hill is the back I prefer and I think that still holds true.
LeSean McCoy returned for the Bills here with an impressive showing of 90 yards and a score on the ground. The Bills have been absolutely decimated at the running back position so now that McCoy is back as the lead guy, it’s hard not to view him as a lock for the top-12 going forward. I’d still be concerned about his long-term health and would absolutely want to handcuff him with Karlos Williams but again, with so many other struggling running backs, it’s hard not to depend on McCoy. E.J. Manuel started in place of the injured Tyrod Taylor while Sammy Watkins left this game with an injury of his own. Outside of Charles Clay, there isn’t any other Buffalo pass-catcher I would count on with Manuel under center so it’s probably best to avoid this passing attack even if Watkins were to play in London.
Washington Redskins @ New York Jets
The New York Jets have been one of the more surprising teams in the NFL this season with an offense that has turned out to be extremely underrated. Both running back Chris Ivory and wide receiver Brandon Marshall are having terrific seasons with both guys putting up impressive numbers once again. Even Eric Decker continues to be serviceable with another touchdown in this game as well. The Jets no longer look like a laughing stock offensively so I have nothing but praise for Ivory, Marshall, and Decker as far as fantasy is concerned.
The Redskins, on the other hand, are the polar opposite of the Jets as far as fantasy is concerned. Even with Matt Jones out, running back Alfred Morris couldn’t get anything going on the ground so I think we’ve reached the point where you can safely bench every Washington back. Considering how much this team prefers to run the ball, it’s extremely disappointing that no one can bust out. I prefer Jones over Morris as it is anyway so if you want to hang onto one of them in the hopes of a turnaround, it’s Jones. Passing wise, Pierre Garcon reeled in a touchdown here but there isn’t really anything else worth mentioning. This team desperately needs DeSean Jackson to return at full strength in order to maintain more explosive offense.
Carolina Panthers @ Seattle Seahawks
The Panthers managed to pull off a last minute stunner in Seattle on the heels of big games out of Jonathan Stewart and Greg Olsen. It was nice to see Stewart finally have a productive outing, especially against a tough Seattle defense. His 78 yards and two touchdowns might be a sign that he’s going to be a more dependable RB2 than it appeared in the few five games. I’ve said all along that he’s a solid play given the right matchup and perhaps I sold him short on that front now that he’s done it against a better defense.
Jimmy Graham was emphasized heavily in this game, ending the day with 140 yards on eight receptions. If Seattle actually decides to utilize Graham’s strengths rather than trot him out there to run block, he’s obviously still capable of being a top-tier tight end. The problem is that the Seahawks are such a run-first team that it’s impossible to buy into this breakout long-term. Obviously you have to start Jimmy Graham if you own but as I’ve said several times before now, your expectations need to be lowered significantly.
Baltimore Ravens @ San Francisco 49ers
Here’s a quick little list of the quarterbacks that have absolutely lit up the Baltimore Ravens secondary: Derek Carr, Andy Dalton, Josh McCown, and Colin Kaepernick. I know each of those passers have had decent fantasy success thus far this season but it’s not like we’re talking about a list of superstars here. The point is that the Ravens defense is droppable. They keep getting torched through the air so not only are they droppable but they’re actually an extremely favorable matchup for opposing offenses. With a prime time game in Arizona on deck, you bet your bottom I’ll be starting every available pass catcher on the Cardinals.
Offensively, Steve Smith is essentially ageless and Colin Kaepernick is turning back into the top-15 fantasy play many had hoped he would be. Other than that, both of these teams possess extremely hit-or-miss options at running back in Justin Forsett and Carlos Hyde. Both guys have been inconsistent and shouldn’t be viewed as anything more than middle-of-the-pack RB2s at best going forward.
San Diego Chargers @ Green Bay Packers
This was another game that came down to the wire thanks to Philip Rivers having a monster 503-yard day with two touchdowns. Keenan Allen accounted for 157 of those yards but did suffer a hip injury in this game. He’ll be evaluated as the week progresses so for now we’re in a holding pattern as far as his week seven availability is concerned. Antonio Gates had another solid outing here with 95 yards while the backfield was completely split in terms of carries with Melvin Gordon, Brandon Oliver, and Danny Woodhead each getting seven carries. In the case of Gordon, his fumble issues are a huge concern right now so he’s worth benching until further notice.
We’ve already discussed the whole Eddie Lacy/James Starks drama so let’s move right along to Green Bay’s passing attack. Randall Cobb continues to disappoint but I’m still hanging tight if I own him. This offense is far too powerful to bail on a guy with Cobb’s level of talent so you just have to take the bad with the good here. Ty Montgomery left this game with an injury, opening the door for Jeff Janis to have some big plays for 79 yards. That said, no Packer had more than two receptions in this game so Janis isn’t really worth more than a deeper league stash, especially if we get word that Davante Adams is close to returning.
New England Patriots @ Indianapolis Colts
Aside from what could be regarded as quite possibly the worst special teams play in history, this was actually a rather entertaining game that featured several key fantasy contributors. New England running back Dion Lewis was really the only player who was kept quiet here but a lot of that can be attributed to his abdominal strain. That allowed for LeGarrette Blount so pile up 104 total yards and two scores. Both Lewis and Blount are usable RB2s given the strength of this offense and with Lewis banged up, Blount has to be inserted into every fantasy lineup. Barring any injuries to Patriots wide receivers, you can safely ignore Danny Amendola’s 105-yard day. Besides, with Brandon LaFell close to returning, Amendola will see his number of targets diminish soon enough.
Andrew Luck finally had an impressive outing of 312 yards and three touchdowns so it was nice to see this passing game get back on track. I’m certain plenty of T.Y. Hilton owners breathed a sigh of relief once he finally found the endzone, myself included. I’ve said all along that better days are ahead for Luck and Hilton so hopefully you’ve managed to stay afloat while they sort out their offense. Other than that, the Colts were about what we expected them to be offensively. Frank Gore has emerged as a dependable RB2 while Donte Moncrief remains the clear number two wide receiver, well ahead of Andre Johnson. This team will continue to improve as time goes on so ideally you hung onto to the right guys in Indy.
