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This is the first week of byes, meaning many of you need streaming options more than ever. In Week 6, IDP managers will be without Maxx Crosby, Jalen Pitre, Jonathan Owens, Johnathan Abram, Jeffery Simmons, Rashad Weaver, Roger McCreary, Aidan Hutchinson, Malcolm Rodriguez, and several other fantasy-relevant defenders.
These bye-week losses are even more painful if you've already suffered the injury bug. Those without Joey Bosa and anyone worrying over the groin of his brother can ill afford to lose a stud like Crosby or a streamer like Weaver. Alas, that is the flaw of fantasy. On any given week, you can lose some players to fate and others to vacation.
Luckily for those suffering the bye-week bummer (yeah, I just came up with that on the spot), our streamers are here to help. Please remember that our casual streamers/fades are meant for shallower leagues and more casual scoring. In contrast, our deeper streamers and position-specific advice are for more moderate to extreme IDP formats. That said, if these pieces can help in any format, have at it! And with that, let’s get to the triage.
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A Trend to Believe In
The Rams Defense Isn’t as Fantasy Friendly as We Hoped
Coming into this season, many of us believed there was a bounty of IDP starters on the defending Super Bowl champions’ roster. This unit felt stacked with playoff breakout Nick Scott and former stalwarts Taylor Rapp and Jordan Fuller covering the backend. At the same time, all-world defenders Aaron Donald and Bobby Wagner handled the front, while Jalen Ramsey roamed the field. Yet here we find ourselves, disappointed in everyone not named Donald or Ramsey.
To be clear, Aaron Donald is still a superstar and a perennial DL1. Jalen Ramsey is also a steady CB1 and a DB2 some weeks. Also, Bobby Wagner isn’t the disappointment some think. While he has yet to match the expectations some had for him this season, his tackle rate is only slightly short of his career rate and his sack rate is up. So, it's hard to be too disappointed in the former Seahawk. There are players to be disappointed in, though.
Perhaps the biggest fantasy disappointments on this unit are at safety, where we’ve seen a three-way competition turn into an orgy of inefficiency. Former playoff hero Nick Scott is the only man standing on two good legs, but his production has been mediocre. Meanwhile, Jordan Fuller and Taylor Rapp are struggling with injuries and production. When Rapp and Scott are healthy, neither has been productive. Unfortunately, the most productive member (Fuller) is also the most battered.
Another disappointment is one of our pre-season breakout picks, Ernest Jones. The Virginia product looked great in his first two games, notching 19 tackles and one FF through Week 2. However, Jones' playing time and fantasy production has been inconsistent since that hot start. There remains hope for Jones, who has three straight fantasy-friendly matchups on deck, but his pace of five or six combined tackles per game is concerning.
Finally, we cannot discuss disappointments without mentioning the Rams' pass rush. Through five games, Los Angeles pass rushers not named Aaron Donald have produced just two sacks and 20 total pressures. That's abysmal production when you consider what Leonard Floyd did last year next to Donald and the myriad of advantages that defenders have simply by playing with #99 and Ramsey. This production is borderline putrid, given the talent.
Production is way down for the entire Rams defense, too. This defense produced 425 pressures and 71 sacks last season, along with 22 interceptions and 52 PDs. This year they are on pace to produce just 59% fewer pressures, 52% fewer sacks, 28% fewer PDs, and 38% fewer interceptions than last year. Without this team seeing a massive regression toward a seemingly unattainable 2021 mean, the Rams offer just three IDP starters going forward.
Casual Scoring Streamers and Fades for This Week
Stream: Kwon Alexander, LB, New York Jets
Kwon Alexander has been on a tear over the past two weeks, and Quincy Williams' injury plays a role in that. Alexander is a good speculative add this week and a fine high-end LB3 against the Packers. However, if Williams is out or on a snap count, Alexander could have LB1 upside.
Stream: Montez Sweat, DL, Washington Commanders
The Chicago Bears have the worst Adjusted Sack Rate in the NFL, giving up the fifth-most sacks (despite running the fewest passing plays and the fewest overall offensive plays in the NFL) and averaging 11 quarterback pressures per contest. Think about that for a moment. The Bears have allowed more sacks than 27 other teams, despite running fewer plays than ALL of them.
Montez Sweat typically lands in the DL3 conversation for us, especially without Chase Young taking heat on his line. However, his tremendous matchup against the Bears elevates him to the outer edges of our DL1 conversation. Chicago is showing signs of interest in throwing the football lately, and that could only improve Sweat's odds of racking up a sack. He's a viable bye-week replacement for Maxx Crosby in shallow leagues.
Fade: Marlon Humphrey, DB, Baltimore Ravens
Humphrey is the rare CB who regularly finds himself in the starting DB conversation, even in shallow IDP formats. However, we almost always fade corners against offenses with no #1 receiver and a low-volume passing attack. That's what Humphrey faces this week against a Giants team that never had a true top receiver and is projected to be without their top four wideouts. The Giants are also the third-most run-heavy offense in the NFL, which doesn't help.
Fade: Bradley Chubb & Baron Browning, DLs, Denver Broncos
Last week we told you to gamble on Browning while folding the Cleveland Browns edge rushers against the Chargers. Now it's time for our gamble from Week 5 to come up against that same offense that made us fade the Browns’ edges.
Chubb and Browning both remain viable starters in deep IDP formats, and Chubb is still a viable DL2 if you play in a shallow league with valuable bench space. However, you must lower expectations against a Chargers offense that is dinking and dunking its way to glory. Without Keenan Allen, Herbert has gotten off quick and short throws on 68% of his attempts. That number could rise if Allen plays, suppressing pass rush opportunities even further.
Premium Scoring & Deep League Streamers and Fades for This Week
Deep Stream: Geno Stone, DB, Baltimore Ravens
With Marcus Williams out for a good chunk of last week's game, the Ravens chose not to rely on their first-round pick (Kyle Hamilton). Instead, they went with this former Hawkeye, who played every defensive snap after Williams' injury. While we would love to see Hamilton get more opportunities in this situation, the Ravens seem to feel differently. Stone is a strong, aggressive safety who should get lots of activity against the Giant's short game.
Stream: Travon Walker, DL, Jacksonville Jaguars
The first-overall pick in this year's Draft hasn't registered a sack or a turnover since Week 1, making him an afterthought in many Premium IDP scoring leagues. This is the week he should rebound, though. The Colts have the third-worst Adjusted Sack Rate in the NFL, have allowed the most sacks of any team, and edge rushers are generating 7.2 pressures per game against them. Matt Ryan also has the fourth most fumbles in the NFL this season.
Fade: Yannick Ngakoue, DL, Indianapolis Colts
This prediction could prove a blunder if the "revenge game" narrative actually helps produce statistics. However, metrics suggest we should fade Colts pass rushers this week, and we will follow those numbers. The Jaguars have allowed the third-fewest sacks in the NFL this year, sport the fourth-best pass-blocking grade from PFF, and have permitted a mere 3.4 pressures from the edge per game. This is not the easy matchup many think it is for edge rushers.
Fade: A.J. Terrell, DB, Atlanta Falcons
Terrell will always be in the CB1 conversation. However, the 49ers present a low-floor opponent for him this week. As the sixth most run-oriented offense in the NFL, the 49ers have a history of pounding out wins on the ground. They also tend to spread the ball around in the passing game and utilize their #1 (Deebo Samuel) in various ways that help him avoid top corners. Terrell is a risky play this week, especially in Premium scoring.
Defensive Tackles to Consider for This Week
D.J. Jones, DT, Denver Broncos
Jones has secured a sack in two straight games, which is fantastic for a player generally known as a run-stopping force. He now faces a Chargers team who have had 24% of their runs stuffed at or behind the line while ranking dead last in power run efficiency. Jones is, first and foremost, a run stuffer, and this is an ideal matchup for him to collect multiple TFLs. If he can keep up his pass-rush prowess, that's even better.
Derrick Brown, DT, Carolina Panthers
This is the second week in a row that we've advised you to play Brown. Last week he delivered by producing two PDs, one TFL, and five tackles. He's still available in 98.7% of IDP leagues and is currently first amongst all DLs in PDs. Meanwhile, his opponent (the Rams) has allowed 46 pressures from the interior, and their third-string center is manning the middle. It's a plus matchup for a guy available in almost all leagues.
Cornerbacks to Consider for This Week
Kyler Gordon, CB, Chicago Bears
As we've mentioned before, the Washington Commanders are the third most pass-oriented offense in the NFL. Even when they try to run the ball, they are inefficient. They sit sixth worst in YPC, fifth worst in rushing yards per game, and third worst in rushing TD percentage. While some of those rates will likely improve against a poor run defense in Chicago, this team can't run and wants to pass.
With the Commanders putting their games on the shoulders of Carson Wentz, it's worth considering what Wentz offers opposing defensive backs. The North Dakota State alum has attempted the second-most pass attempts in the NFL, thrown the second-most INTs, and his On-Target Percentage is a lowly 71.6% this season. All those figures favor opposing defensive backs like Gordon, who has missed just one defensive snap all season and is targeted regularly.
Charvarius Ward, CB, San Francisco 49ers
It’s risky to start a corner against a Falcons offense that has been the most run-oriented unit in the NFL over the past three weeks. Obviously, if the Falcons continue to establish the run and control the pace against San Francisco as they have been, Ward could see his opportunity rate shrivel. That said, there is reason for optimism.
One reason to be optimistic is the 49ers' run defense. San Francisco is allowing the fewest total rushing yards per game and the lowest YPC in the NFL this year while tying for the seventh fewest rushing TDs allowed. Given their personnel and performance so far, there is a good chance SF shuts down an Atlanta rushing attack that is more scheme than talent at this point. If that happens, the Falcons could be forced to pass more.
We could also see the Falcons willingly throw the ball more if Nick Bosa, Arik Armstead, and Javon Kinlaw are all out along with Emmanuel Moseley. While that isn’t likely, it’s always possible Arthur Smith identifies a depleted pass rush and secondary as an area of weakness. If he does, it may be wise for him to attack that perceived weakness in a matchup he’s projected to lose badly.
Regardless of why it might happen, there is a solid chance Atlanta has to throw the ball more than they want to against San Francisco. If that happens, it means Drake London should see his target share rebound to what it was early in the season. It also could mean we see Ward shadow for the first time this year, with Moseley out. If he does, he could see several big play opportunities.
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