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Welcome to a special Christmas edition of our Sleeper NFL DFS prop picks for Week 16 Monday Night Football. This week, the Ravens head to the West Coast to face the 49ers on MNF.
Last week’s MNF prop picks finished 2-1, bringing our season record to 23-12 (66%). We’ve run the numbers and highlighted three top props for this week you can use on Sleeper DFS or your favorite sportsbook.
Sleeper offers some of the best and easiest-to-win NFL DFS games in the industry. Sleeper DFS works just like regular player prop betting -- there are no large-field tournaments to get lost in. You're not playing against other people; you're just playing against the projections. Here are a few of our favorite prop picks for MNF on Sleeper DFS.
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NFL DFS Props - Over/Under Picks for Week 16 Monday Night Football
Brock Purdy OVER 6.5 Rushing Yards
Purdy has a great shot at exceeding his rushing prop under the lights on Christmas Day. The NFL’s odds-on favorite to win league MVP is averaging 9.9 rushing yards per game and has exceeded the 6.5 rushing yard mark in three of his last five games.
The Ravens have given up an average of 18.1 rushing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks this year, including allowing 26 or more rushing yards to five of the last seven starting quarterbacks they have faced. Baltimore has a stingy defense, ranking second in defensive DVOA this season while leading the NFL in sacks.
With less time in the pocket, Purdy may be forced to scramble more than he’s used to. Consider riding with Purdy on the ground on Monday.
Gus Edwards OVER 2.5 Receiving Yards
Edwards will have a stranglehold on Baltimore’s backfield again going forward after a gruesome knee injury ended promising rookie RB Keaton Mitchell’s season last week. Edwards was used to seeing 50% or more of the offensive snaps before Mitchell’s mid-season emergence and should see similar usage again going forward.
Despite the decreased opportunities he had seen in recent weeks, Edwards had topped 2.5 receiving yards in seven of his last nine games. He should see the majority of Mitchell’s 11 vacated targets and is a good bet to go over that 2.5-yard mark again in Week 16.
PFF shows a 66.5% likelihood of this prop hitting. Rotoballer's Proptimizer tool agrees with this pick, giving it a whopping 38.2% edge with a Sharp App projected line of 9.2 receiving yards.
Justin Tucker OVER 6.5 Kicking Points
Sleeper has a gift for football fans on Christmas Night with a 6.5-kicking point prop for Justin Tucker. The greatest kicker of all time ranks third in points at his position in 2023, including hitting seven or more kicking points in nine straight games.
His matchup with the 49ers has the third-highest total of the week (47). Baltimore is averaging 8.6 kicking points per game, while San Francisco has given up an average of 7.3 kicking points over their last three games.
Tucker’s kicking prop is not under 7.0 points often, so when it is, take it and don’t ask questions.
Be sure to also check out our brand new PrizePicks Optimizer tool and the free PrizePicks DFS Props Tool to see more recommended picks. Thanks for reading and happy holidays!
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