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Week 15 Saturday Night NFL Matchups Analysis: Start/Sit

It's time for the Week 15 installment of Thursday/Saturday night matchups with my start/sit recommendations. This week, the Jeff Fisher-less Rams will take on the Seattle Seahawks in the home of the 12th man on TNF, while the Dolphins fight to improve their playoff chances against the lowly Jets on Saturday.

Each week of the NFL season, we will be breaking down every game and providing you with some fantasy football advice and lineup recommendations based on matchups that we love, matchups that we hate, and injury information as well. Later this week, you will find parts one and two of our Week 15 NFL matchups, which should help you prepare your lineups to win this week. It’s essential to analyze the weekly NFL matchups to find lineup sleepers and gems, while also avoiding those players who may turn out to be busts.

Editor's Note: New users that sign up on FantasyAces, make a $20 deposit, and enter any game will receive BOTH our full season NFL and NBA Premium Passes for free, a $119.99 value. Just email [email protected] with your new FantasyAces username - and boom, that's it! We will email you with your Premium Passes.

 

Dolphins @ Jets - Saturday 12/17 @ 8:25 PM EST

Matchups We Love

Jay Ajayi (RB, MIA) - Finally, a matchup that may favor the free-falling Ajayi. The last time Ajayi cracked 100 yards (or had RB1 value) was Week 9 against these Jets. Since then, the formerly formidable front seven in New York has allowed four of the last five teams to go over 100 rushing yards, with only the Patriots falling short at 91. They were absolutely gashed by Carlos Hyde and the 49ers last week to the tune of 248 yards on the ground. The Dolphins will rely on the run this week with Ryan Tannehill out, so Ajayi looks like a good bet to recreate some of his mid-season magic.

Bilal Powell (RB, NYJ) - Matt Forte is likely out, which would make Powell the bellcow back in New York for now. It would be unwise to project too much based off his performance against the 49ers' Swiss cheese run defense. The last time Powell had carried the ball more than 20 times was in 2013 against the Dolphins, when he managed 76 yards on 21 attempts. Powell is still a good value play, since he will keep catching passes out of the backfield and has a decent chance to score.

Robby Anderson (WR, NYJ) - It's clear that Anderson is the apple of Petty's eye, having been targeted 23 times in the last two games. Anderson may be the most surprising waiver wire add worth starting in a fantasy playoff matchup for a 4-9 team playing with a third-string QB. Last week he finished with 111 total yards, the week before it was 61 yards and a TD. Don't hesitate to use Anderson as a WR3 or flex this week. After Byron Maxwell, who will cover Brandon Marshall, the Dolphins secondary is very beatable.

Matchups We Hate

Bryce Petty (QB, NYJ) - You would have to be extremely desperate or way too involved in the consolation bracket of your fantasy league to consider starting Petty. He only mustered 257 and failed to throw a TD against the league-worst 49ers defense. Petty is still auditioning for a job next year, and potentially fighting to keep his head coach's job as well. That doesn't mean he will suddenly grow comfortable in the pocket, where he seems to get happy feet all too quickly. Ignore him in all formats.

Quincy Enunwa (WR, NYJ) - There's only so much value among the Jets receiving corps these days, so if we're loving Anderson, we're fading Enunwa again. He and Petty simply don't hook up often, made obvious by his three-catch, 29-yard performance against San Fran.

Notable Players

Matt Moore (QB, MIA) - He's been holding a clipboard the past five years, only throwing 35 passes as Ryan Tannehill's backup. There's quite a bit of rust to shake off, but Moore is a capable backup. With the way the Jets are playing lately, it wouldn't be surprising to see Moore throw a couple of touchdowns. He isn't worth starting in standard leagues, but could at least be a cheap option in daily leagues.

 

Rams @ Seahawks - Thursday 12/15 @ 8:25 PM EST

Matchups We Love

Russell Wilson (QB, SEA) - The Rams defense has joined the offense as a completely inept unit. They have given up 117 points in the last three games, for an average of 39 points per game. Seattle's offense didn't seem capable of anything two of the last three weeks, but they did put up 40 in Week 13 against Carolina. Fantasy owners, like the Seahawks, need to have a short memory and give them the benefit of the doubt this week. Wilson may be hard to trust for teams in the playoffs, but he is at least a low-end QB1 in deep leagues.

Thomas Rawls (RB, SEA) - Chances are the game script will be completely flipped for Seattle this week, which should work in Rawls' favor. They were steamrolled by a Packers offense on fire in the second half of the season, falling behind early. The deficit limited Rawls to 12 carries as the Hawks instead opted to let Russ Wilson keep throwing picks. Rawls ran for 5.58 Y/A on those carries, so his effectiveness was not the problem. Expect much better results against a flailing Rams team without a head coach and playing for pride only. If this game turns as ugly as some people expect, even Alex Collins could produce garbage time points.

Kenny Britt (WR, LA) - Britt has proven to be the most consistent offensive player on the Rams this year. He caught six passes for 94 yards earlier in the year against Seattle and has scored in two of the last three weeks. Britt stands to benefit most from a touch matchup because the Rams will throw deep to him when in catch-up mode. Britt is a solid WR2 regardless of the tough draw against Richard Sherman.

Matchups We Hate

Jared Goff (QB, LA) - Facing a depleted Falcons secondary in a come-from-behind scenario the entire game, Goff failed to throw a single touchdown and only managed 235 yards. Now he faces the most hostile environment imaginable against one of the top defenses in the league. It would be foolish to expect any fantasy production from the rookie.

Notable Players

Doug Baldwin (WR, SEA) - Baldwin's three-TD game against the Pats seems like a distant memory. It remains the only game out of the last 10 in which he has scored at all. He is seeing a steady diet of targets, catching 20 out of 26 targets in the last three games, making him a decent PPR play. It's obvious that the Baldwin of last year won't reappear at fantasy playoff time, however.

Todd Gurley (RB, LA) - You know what you're getting with Gurley at this point. He is a touchdown-dependent RB2 with a low ceiling. He hasn't rushed for 100 yards all season, with 85 his season high, but he has scored five TD.  He totaled 70 yards without a score in Week 2 versus Seattle. Expect similar production this week, with a 30% chance of a touchdown.

Tavon Austin (WR, LA) - After three weeks of non-production, Austin's arrow may be pointing up again. He was targeted 11 times last week, catching seven passes for 62 yards. He missed Week 13 with an injury, but in Week 12 he collected 55 yards and scored a touchdown. The Rams will have to get creative to manufacture points in this matchup, which could lend to heavier involvement for Austin. He is always a boom-bust WR3 due to his reliance on big plays.




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