Week 12 Fantasy Football Matchups We Love: The Fantasy Matchmaker

Welcome back to the Week 12 Fantasy Matchmaker article looking at Week 12 matchups we love! This is my weekly series for RotoBaller where I look at the matchup strength for pretty much every viable fantasy football player across the fantasy skill positions.

With only three weeks left in the fantasy football regular season, each decision we make becomes more and more crucial. I am here to assist with those decisions from the angle of matchup strength. How good or bad an opponent has been against one of the fantasy skill positions should not be the only factor in your weekly decisions. Just like there are no single metrics that tell the whole story or predict the future of a player’s fantasy success (or lack thereof), environmental conditions such as matchup strength should be used in conjunction with other factors. I am not necessarily telling you to start or sit the players I highlight each week in this series. Rather, I am highlighting individual player matchups I like and dislike, typically meaning I think they will either exceed their positional rank for that week or will fall short.

In this article, I will present my updated rankings for matchup strengths for the QB, RB, WR, and TE positions based on my adjusted fantasy points allowed process and present some players whose matchups I love, and other players whose matchups I am trying to avoid.

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My Methodology

The common method for analyzing fantasy football matchups and the strength of opponents is by fantasy points allowed. How many fantasy points has that opponent been allowing to that position on average? This is something I track weekly, but I take it a bit further as only looking at raw fantasy points allowed per game does not tell the whole story. My strength of schedule scoring entering Week 12 includes what each team has given up in Weeks 1-11 (including the average). I also incorporate “opponent-adjusted” data, looking at what teams are giving up compared to what their opponents have averaged at each fantasy skill position.

This is also called Points Over Average (POA) allowed. For example, when comparing raw fantasy points allowed per game and POA allowed per game, one of the biggest discrepancies is the Eagles versus QBs. The Eagles are ranked 30^th versus QBs in raw fantasy PPG allowed. But they are ranked 11 spots better at 19^th when adjusting for opponents faced. What this means is while the Eagles have given up the third-most PPG to the QB position when you look at what they have given up to QBs compared to those QBs’ average PPG, they are closer to middle-of-the-pack and not the cake matchup for QBs their raw points allowed implies. My overall matchup strength rankings incorporate season-long POA allowed, POA allowed over the last five games, and POA allowed over the last three games.

RotoBaller generates positional and overall player rankings (all positions) for Points Per Reception (PPR), half PPR, and Standard (no PPR) each week, which will be included when looking at matchups for each positional group. The idea is to show each relevant skill position player’s matchup and positional rank for that week. Each table will be filtered based on the positional rankings so you can see the matchup strength for the must-starts as well as for borderline starters, flex options, and desperation dart throws. I encourage you to check out RotoBaller’s Week 12 ranks, available here. I was not able to finish this article before the Thanksgiving games so all players from the six teams that played on Turkey Day have been removed from the rankings lists.

 

Week 12 Fantasy Football Quarterback Matchups

The following shows the projected matchup strength for the QB position in Week 12. The table includes the QB, the Week 12 positional rank (according to RotoBaller), the opponent, and the opponent’s projected rank versus fantasy QBs according to my scoring system. The table is filtered in the same order as the RotoBaller positional rankings. The QBs that played in the Thanksgiving games have been removed from the list.

The additional data points I am including for QBs are the projected point totals in each game, the spread, and the implied total points for the QB’s team (all from FanDuel.com).

 

Week 12: QB Matchups We Love

Gardner Minshew (Indianapolis Colts)

Week 12, Post-Thanksgiving Rank: QB13
Opponent: TB
Opponent Rank vs. QB: 30^th

The Colts come out of their Week 11 bye with a home matchup against the Buccaneers. This is good news for Garner Minshew and the Colts’ passing game as Tampa Bay ranks as the third-most favorable matchup for QBs. If you look at the entire season, the Buccaneers have a QB POA allowed of +1.4 PPG. However, over their last five games that number jumps to +6.3, and over their last three QBs have scored +8.5 PPG above their average. Before their Week 5 bye, Tampa Bay allowed only a 300-yard game and multiple passing TDs only once.

Since the bye, they’ve allowed 300+ passing yards and at least two passing TDs in four of six games, with the only two QBs held under those numbers being Desmond Ridder and Will Levis. Over the last five games, they’ve allowed an average of 9.5 yards per pass attempt, which is easily the highest in the NFL during that span. Tampa Bay has been very tough against the run which likely means a higher passing rate for the Colts. Minshew is an excellent streaming option this week at only 15% rostered in Yahoo leagues.

My god the Bucs defense is depleted:

- Lavonte David & Devin White DNP
- Carlton Davis limited, Jamaal Dean DNP

Gardner Minshew, Michael Pittman & Josh Downs 📈📈📈 https://t.co/AuanbaebT7

— The Dynasty Grill (@FFDynastyGrill) November 23, 2023

Matthew Stafford (New Orleans Saints)

Week 12, Post-Thanksgiving Rank: QB14
Opponent: @ARI
Opponent Rank vs. QB: 26th

Matthew Stafford faces the 26^th-ranked (seventh-easiest) Cardinals on the road in Week 12. Cooper Kupp was able to practice on Thursday as he battles an ankle injury sustained against the Seahawks in Week 11. Puka Nacua is also battling an injury but was a full participant at practice on Thanksgiving. Even if Kupp can’t suit up, I still love this matchup for Stafford.

The Cardinals have a QB POA allowed of +1.8 PPG on the season, and +2.4 PPG over the last three games. Also, with Kyler Murray back at QB in Arizona, this game has a higher over-under (44.5 points) than it would have earlier in the season. The Rams are slight road favorites and have a solid implied total of 23 points. At 48% rostered in Yahoo leagues, Stafford is another solid streaming option in Week 12.

 

Week 12: Not Great, Bob – QB Matchups to Avoid

Tua Tagovailoa (Miami Dolphins)

Week 12, Post-Thanksgiving Rank: QB11
Opponent: @NYJ
Opponent Rank vs. QB: 5^th

Tua Tagovailoa is one of those QBs who is right on the threshold of being a must-start, but I’m looking to avoid this matchup with the fifth-ranked Jets. Tagovailoa’s home-road splits are striking. At home, Tagovailoa has thrown at least two TDs and/or 300+ passing yards in four of five games. On the road, where most of the Dolphins’ tougher matchups have taken place, he hasn’t exceeded 300 yards or thrown more than one TD since Week 1 (against the 29^th-ranked Chargers).

The Jets will be Tagovailoa’s second-toughest matchup of the season. The one position where success has been found through the air against the Jets is RB. The Jets have been the fifth-most favorable matchup for RB PFR, so there is a slight path to some fantasy success. But the Jets have been the stingiest defense versus WRs (by a wide margin). I’m not fading Tyreek Hill at all, but I don’t think Tua finds enough passing success overall based on how the Dolphins have performed in tough road matchups

Will Levis (Tennessee Titans)

Week 12, Post-Thanksgiving Rank: QB17
Opponent: CAR
Opponent Rank vs. QB: 2^nd  

It’s not a bold take at this point to advise against starting Will Levis. But it’s possible to look at the Panthers and go into autopilot because they’ve been a terrible team and one of the best matchups for RBs. Sometimes a team in the state the Panthers are currently in can be seen as a blanket good matchup. But they’ve been a bad matchup for QBs.

The Panthers are the second-toughest matchup for QBs based on adjusted fantasy points allowed. In the four games since their Week 7 bye, Carolina has allowed under 160 passing yards per game, only three total passing TDs, and a microscopic 5.2 yards per pass attempt. They held Dak Prescott to only 204 passing yards in Week 11. A big game for both Derrick Henry and Tyjae Spears may be coming, but Levis should be nowhere near your starting lineup.

Will Levis is converting a league-low 31% of his air yards into actual yards. for context, Brock Purdy leads the NFL with a 66% air yards conversion rate.

— Denny Carter (@CDCarter13) November 22, 2023

 

Week 12 Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Matchups

The following WR table shows the top 70 WRs for Week 12 (according to RotoBaller; PPR), opponent, and opponent rank versus fantasy WRs. The WRs that played in the Thanksgiving games have been removed from the list.

Week 12: WR Matchups We Love

Josh Downs (Indianapolis Colts)

Week 12, Post-Thanksgiving Rank: WR29
Opponent: TB
Opponent Rank vs. WR: 29^th  

Josh Downs follows in the footsteps of calling out Minshew as a good start. The Buccaneers have been just as friendly to WRs as they have to QBs. Over the last five games, they have a WR POA allowed of +9.1 PPG, which is only surpassed by the Eagles (+9.4). They’ve allowed opposing WR groups to score at least 15 points above their average in three of their last six games, and been a top matchup for slot WRs like Downs.

Downs battled injury the last few games before the Colts’ Week 11 bye, but before that Downs earned at least six targets in six of the first eight games and was on the field for around 75% of the team’s offensive snaps. Through Week 9 (while healthy), Downs had a target share of 20.6% and a route participation of 81.5%. His targets per route run were at 21%, only four points below teammate Michael Pitman Jr. Downs should be healthy and a full go in this tasty matchup.

🔥TOP WIDE RECEIVER MATCHUPS🔥

Notable Slot Matchups in Week 12

1. Josh Downs vs. TB
2. Khalil Shakir vs. PHI
3. Demario Douglas vs. NYG
4. Wan'Dale Robinson vs. NE
5. Christian Kirk vs. HOU

See all the slot vs. wide matchups on @Razzball.comhttps://t.co/t01KzH3Bq1

— Bobby LaMarco (@BobbyLamarco) November 22, 2023

Odell Beckham Jr. (Baltimore Ravens)

Week 12, Post-Thanksgiving Rank: WR34
Opponent: @LAC
Opponent Rank vs. WR: 31^st

Odell Beckham Jr. (OBJ) faces the Chargers in Week 12, the second-best matchup for fantasy WRs in adjusted fantasy points allowed. Passing games against the Chargers have averaged 37.9 targets per game (second-highest) and a 60.7% pass rate (sixth-highest). OBJ should see more snaps with Mark Andrews now out for the season and he’s coming off a 116-yard game against the Bengals. The Chargers are coming off a game against the Packers in which they allowed a WR POA of +25.6 points. A bit of a “stars aligning” scenario that should see OBJ exceed his low-end WR3 rank in Week 12.

Ravens WR Odell Beckham Jr. had the #1 receiving grade among receivers in Week 11, per @PFF. pic.twitter.com/ECa49s2lZk

— Ravens Nation LIVE (@LIVERavenNation) November 24, 2023

 

Week 12: Not Great, Bob – WR Matchups to Avoid

Jaylen Waddle (Miami Dolphins)

Week 12, Post-Thanksgiving Rank: WR17
Opponent: @NYJ
Opponent Rank vs. WR: 1^st

Just like Josh Downs is following his QB into good matchup land, Jaylen Waddle follows his QB into the opposite end of the matchup spectrum. Tyreek Hill is a locked and loaded must-start regardless of matchup. If the Jets shut down Hill, that’s just something you have to live with. He must be in your lineup. Unfortunately, the same is not true for Waddle. Outside of Waddle’s 12-target, 121-yard Week 7 against the Patriots, it’s been a disappointing season. In the last two games, Waddle has averaged seven targets, 3.5 receptions, and only 48.5 yards, and the Jets have been a nightmare for WRs this year.

Remarkably, the Jets have held WR groups to a negative POA in every game this season. And it hasn’t been close. The closest a WR group got to their season-long PPG average against the Jets was a POA of -6.9 by the Eagles. Overall, the Jets have a negative POA allowed in the double-digits in eight of 10 games. Their season-long WR POA allowed is -13.5 PPG, by far the lowest in the NFL, and they’ve been even stingier than that since their Week 7 bye. The Jets have been historically good against WRs.

The #Jets have allowed just 2 WR TDs this season.

Stefon Diggs Week 1
Khalil Shakir Week 11

Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle up next 🍿

— Jared Smola (@SmolaDS) November 20, 2023

DeAndre Hopkins (Tennessee Titans)

Week 12, Post-Thanksgiving Rank: WR19
Opponent: CAR
Opponent Rank vs. WR: 2^nd

Maybe this is one too many times pairing teammates in my bad WR and QB matchups, but it’s worth pointing out with a WR like Hopkins. You see his name and you know he’s easily the WR1 for the Titans. You remember a few games back when Levis debuted by throwing three TDs to Hopkins. And you see the Hopkins TD last week against the 22nd-ranked Jaguars and feel that urge to start him. The Panthers are a different story for WRs.

In any other season, especially without the Jets and their abnormal dominance versus WRs, the Panthers would be the toughest WR opponent. The Panthers have allowed a positive POA to WRs in only three of 10 games, and have a season-long POA allowed of -7.2 PPG. Since their Week 7 bye, that number is -13 PPG. The Titans’ path to victory in this game is on the ground, which is less than ideal for Hopkins on a team that is already near the bottom in QB targets per game and pass rate.

 

Week 12 Fantasy Football Running Back Matchups

The following RB table shows the top 50 RBs for Week 12 (according to RotoBaller; PPR), opponent, and opponent rank versus fantasy RBs. The RBs that played in the Thanksgiving games have been removed from the list.

This chart also includes my rankings for RB points from receiving output only (PFR). The PFR ranks are included next to the overall RB ranks. What we are looking for with that side-by-side inclusion are discrepancies that may change the outlook of a matchup (depending on the RB). The RBs that played in the Thanksgiving games have been removed from the list.

Currently, the notable differences in rank between RBs in general and RB PFR include the following:

• The Giants rank 20 spots better versus RB PFR than overall RB, ranking as the third-toughest matchup in adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs via PFR. Impacted players: Rhamondre Stevenson and Ezekiel Elliott.
• The Buccaneers are 11 spots worse versus RB PFR than overall RB, ranking 13^th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs via PFR. Tampa Bay ranks third versus RBs overall but allow a little more breathing room to RBs through the air. Impacted players: Jonathan Taylor.
• The Vikings are 11 spots worse versus RB PFR than overall RB, ranking 24^th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs via PFR. Minnesota ranks 13^th versus RBs overall but is a softer matchup for pass-catching RBs. Impacted players: Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson.
• The Falcons rank 12 spots worse versus RB PFR than overall RB, ranking 22^nd in adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs via PFR. Impacted players: Alvin Kamara.
• The Jaguars are 16 spots worse versus RB PFR than overall RB, ranking 31^st in adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs via PFR. Impacted players: Devin Singletary.

Here is the chart showing these rank differences more clearly:

Now onto Week 12 RB matchups I love.

 

Week 12: RB Matchups We Love

Jerome Ford (Cleveland Browns)

Week 12, Post-Thanksgiving Rank: RB22
Opponent: @DEN
Opponent Rank vs. RB: 26^th
Opponent Rank vs. RB PFR: 23^rd  

Jerome Ford has averaged 16.3 rush attempts and 4.3 targets per game over the last three. Yes, his rush attempts have decreased in that span, to where he only had one more carry than Kareem Hunt in Week 11. That coincided with rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson taking over as the starting QB, so there is the risk that this will be more of a split backfield moving forward. But, Ford has still been out-snapping Hunt and running more routes. And anyone using their eyes can see that Ford is the better all-around RB.

It’s the added threat as a pass catcher that gives him the edge in the Browns’ backfield and is a big reason why he’s on my list this week. The Broncos rank 26^th versus RBs and 23^rd when looking only at RB PFR. The Broncos have turned into a brutal matchup for WRs (third-toughest; only behind the Jets and Panthers) and also a negative matchup for QBs (-5.9 QB POA allowed in the last five games). And while the infamous Dolphins game will skew the Broncos’ numbers versus RBs until the season ends, they’ve allowed a positive POA to RBs in all but two games this year. This is a great matchup for Ford.

Just bet Jerome Ford O 48.5 rush yrds.

Here's why:

- 4 RBs have 68+ rush yards vs. DEN in the last 2 games
- DEN 31st Rush DVOA
- DEN 32nd Adjusted Line Yards allowed per carry
- CLE 34.3 rush attempts p/g (1st)
- Ford 16.3 rush attempts p/g (last 3) https://t.co/ecj8iHxZFC pic.twitter.com/vELz6r60R0

— Kevin Adams (@MagicSportsGuy) November 23, 2023

Ty Chandler (Minnesota Vikings)

Week 12, Post-Thanksgiving Rank: RB29
Opponent: CHI
Opponent Rank vs. RB: 31^st
Opponent Rank vs. RB PFR: 32^nd   

Alexander Mattison out-touched Ty Chandler in Week 11, 19-14. Mattison had 48 snaps to Chandler’s 23, and Mattison ran 19 routes to Chandler’s seven. But here’s the thing. Chandler turned his 14 touches, which included four receptions on four targets, into 110 total yards. Mattison accumulated 80 yards on his 19 touches. This pecking order may not change much in Week 12, but I prefer Chandler as the more efficient and explosive RB against the Bears.

Chicago is the second-easiest RB matchup in adjusted fantasy points allowed and the most favorable matchup for RB PFR, which is where Chandler’s skill set surpasses Mattison’s. I am starting Chandler with some confidence in Week 12.

Ty Chandler is to Alexander Mattison as Jaylen Warren is to Najee Harris.

— Dave Kluge (@DaveKluge) November 20, 2023

 

Week 12: Not Great Bob, RB Matchups to Avoid

Javonte Williams (Denver Broncos)

Week 12, Post-Thanksgiving Rank: RB17
Opponent: CLE
Opponent Rank vs. RB: 5^th
Opponent Rank vs. RB PFR: 7^th

Javonte Williams gets the Browns in Week 12, the fifth-toughest RB opponent and the seventh-toughest for RB PFR. In Week 11, Williams saw his lowest snap share, rush attempts, and targets of the last five games. Maybe Williams’ two straight games with 20+ carries on each side of their Week 9 bye was seen by the Broncos as too much, too soon after last year’s knee injury. Maybe it was a blip on the radar and Williams will go right back to more of a bell-cow role in Week 12. Either way, I don’t see a big day coming for Williams against this defense.

James Cook (Buffalo Bills)

Week 12, Post-Thanksgiving Rank: RB24
Opponent: @PHI
Opponent Rank vs. RB: 1^st
Opponent Rank vs. RB PFR: 4^th

James Cook has been highly effective over the last two games, averaging over six yards per carry and 91 rushing yards per game. And he scored through the air against the Jets. But that’s where the Jets are vulnerable. Cook’s Week 12 opponent, the Eagles, has shown little vulnerability against RBs, whether on the ground or through the air. Philadelphia is the toughest matchup for fantasy RBs and the fourth-toughest when looking at RB PFR. On the flip side, the Eagles are currently the most favorable matchup for fantasy WRs.

This is a crucial game for both teams as the Eagles control their own destiny for the one seed in the NFC and the Bills are trying to avoid slipping out of playoff contention. The way to beat the Eagles is through the air, and the Bills are already a team with a pass rate approaching 60%. Cook’s snap share has been under 50% in the last two games and he has relied on high efficiency and a high touches-per-snap rate for his fantasy success. Both of those crucial metrics will decrease against the Eagles' run defense.

 

Week 12 Fantasy Football Tight End Matchups

The following TE table shows the top 25 TEs for Week 12 (according to RotoBaller; PPR), opponent, and opponent rank versus fantasy TEs. The TEs that played in the Thanksgiving games have been removed from the list.

 

Week 12: TE Matchups We Love

David Njoku (Cleveland Browns)

Week 12, Post-Thanksgiving Rank: TE10
Opponent: @DEN
Opponent Rank vs. TE: 27^th

It has been a tale of two halves for David Njoku in 2023. Overall, Njoku is currently the TE13 (PPR, PPG) and has the seventh-highest target share among TEs at 20.7%. He has averaged 6.9 targets per game. But there was a noticeable uptick for Njoku starting in Week 7. Through the first five games, he had not scored, and his single-game high-water marks were seven targets in Week 4 and 48 receiving yards in Week 2. From Week 7 on, he is the TE9 and has averaged 9.4 targets and 54.2 receiving yards per game, and scored twice. His target share in that span is 27.7% including a 36.6% (15 targets) in Week 11, the first week of Dorian Thompson-Robinson started at QB for the Browns.

The Broncos have been a negative matchup for QBs and WRs, but they have been the sixth-most favorable matchup for TEs. Their season-long TE POA allowed is +3.1 PPG, and that number jumps to +3.7 PPG since the Broncos’ Week 9 bye. Njoku should be in your Week 12 lineup.

David Njoku jumped to TE6 in TEP xPPG, which looked really weird

Turns out he had a whopping 29.2 xFP this week with an expected 11.3 / 95.3 / 0.5 line

15 targets at a 3.5 aDOT this week. checked the NGS passing chart and yup, adds up!

Njoku a high end start if this persists pic.twitter.com/ueingUeINd

— David (@DSP4150) November 20, 2023

 

Week 12: Not Great Bob, TE Matchups to Avoid

Hunter Henry (New England Patriots)

Week 12, Post-Thanksgiving Rank: TE14
Opponent: @NYG
Opponent Rank vs. TE: 8^th

I had Hunter Henry on the “matchups I love” list back in Week 9 and he came through, finishing with 13.9 PPR points (TE10). That game was a positive matchup with the Commanders. In Week 12 Henry faces the Giants, currently ranked as the eighth-toughest matchup for TEs in adjusted fantasy points allowed. Over the last five games, the Giants have allowed an average of only four catches for 39.4 yards to the TE position, with a POA allowed of -2.6 PPG. Henry should stay on your bench or remain in the waiver wire in Week 12.

Fantasy Defense (DEF) Rankings

If you are interested in my Week 12 rankings for fantasy defenses I encourage you to read my weekly RotoBaller article covering Defense/Special Teams, available here.

 

Thank you so much for reading! I love diving deep into the data in search of statistics and combinations of statistics that can help you make the best decisions possible in the maze of fantasy football decisions. If you have any questions about this article or general questions about fantasy football, reach out to me on X (@MunderDifflinFF).

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