RADIO
Week 11 just wrapped up with a close, relatively low-scoring Super Bowl LVII rematch between the Eagles and Chiefs on Monday Night Football, with the Eagles sending a stadium full of Chiefs fans home disappointed. This means it’s already Week 12 and the fantasy decisions we are faced with can be the difference between making your playoffs or not this late in the season. After dealing with byes for the last month, Week 12 (like Week 8) has all 32 teams in action. For the third week in a row, the Cowboys are a top DST option this week against the Commanders. But it’s another team that takes the top spot in my DST rankings in Week 12.
Week 11 was an okay week for the DST position. Another surprise team took home the highest score of the week. The Giants scored 23 fantasy points against the Commanders. It was the Commanders that were supposed to be the play in that game, but after they gave up three passing TDs to Tommy Devito in a loss, we have another example of the risk in playing a bad DST in a good matchup. We’ll see which direction the Patriots take that narrative this week. Not including MNF, only four teams scored double-digit points (NYG, DAL, BUF, and MIA), but you can add six teams to that list if you lower the threshold to eight fantasy points.
On the disappointing end of the spectrum, the Seahawks put up a DST dud at home against the Rams. The Vikings ended up losing to the Broncos, and the Ravens scored a disappointing six points. But it’s a new week and there are plenty of teams that will disappoint us in Week 12. But with all 32 teams playing there are some good streaming options and a few of the better defenses are starting a stretch of plus matchups this week.
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How To Determine What Defenses To Start
When it comes to determining the top fantasy football defenses each week, you should look at which units have the most upside and can change the trajectory of your matchup. Defenses are often overlooked in fantasy, but as stated above, the top ones from each week can outscore some of your opponent's key starters.
We also need to pay attention to matchup strength. In determining DST matchup strength, I use an adjusted fantasy points-allowed system. I include the raw fantasy points allowed per game to the DST position. I then factor in how that PPG allowed compares to the opponent's average DST PPG. For instance, let’s say Team A allows 10 fantasy points to the Cowboys’ DST. Team B allows five fantasy points to the Panthers’ DST. If looking only at raw fantasy points allowed, Team B is ranked as a tougher matchup having given up half as many points. But if the Cowboys’ DST is averaging 16 PPG while the Panthers’ DST is averaging only one PPG, that needs to be factored into the overall matchup strength. Team A’s Points Allowed Over Average (POA) allowed is -7. Team B’s POA allowed is +4. I assign a weight to POA which is factored into the overall rank. Each opponent will include their current rank, with lower numbers representing tougher matchups and higher numbers representing easier matchups.
Matchup strength is important, but it typically shouldn’t outweigh the strength of the DST in making a decision. To maximize the upside of your fantasy defense each week, you need to target units that can get to the quarterback constantly and cause turnovers. Sacks, turnovers, and defensive touchdowns are what create high ceilings for these fantasy defenses. To determine a somewhat safe start at defense, you should look at low point totals and teams that can hold their opponent to less than 20 points.
Tier 1 Defenses – Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 12
Kansas City Chiefs DST @LV
Yahoo Rostership%: 70%
Vegas Odds: KC favored by 9
Over/Under (Total Points): 44.5
Implied points against: 17.8
Opponent rank vs. DSTs: 27th
The Chiefs are my favorite rest-of-season defense and they are my top-ranked defense for Week 12. They travel to Las Vegas to face the Raiders, a team that ranks 27th (sixth-easiest) in adjusted fantasy points allowed to DSTs. This is an ideal “great defense in a great matchup” opportunity and the start of one of the better stretches of matchups for DSTs.
The Chiefs’ rest-of-season schedule ranks 24th (ninth-easiest) and their Fantasy Playoff schedule ranks 28th (fifth-easiest). They have the best schedule of the upper-echelon defenses. I hope you picked them up when they were more widely available during their Week 10 bye week. Currently, at a 70% rostership in Yahoo leagues, make sure to check if they’re available on waivers in case your league mates were scared off by the Eagles matchup in Week 11.
Just a reminder that the Chiefs defense faces the Patriots, Raiders, and Bengals in the fantasy playoffs.
— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) November 21, 2023
Dallas Cowboys DST vs. WAS
Yahoo Rostership%: 100%
Vegas Odds: DAL favored by 10.5
Over/Under (Total Points): 47.5
Implied points against: 18.5
Opponent rank vs. DSTs: 30th
The Cowboys have had quite the string of plus matchups and were close to being my top-ranked DST for the third week in a row. Dallas has been flying high on offense and defense and gets a home game versus the 30th-ranked Commanders in Week 12. Sam Howell has been doing his best Blake Bortles impression, with decent fantasy points along with plenty of turnovers and sacks taken.
The Commanders' season-long POA allowed is at +5.4 PPG, and they just gave up 22 fantasy points to the Giants DST, which is 16.2 points above New York’s season-long PPG. The Cowboys lead the NFL with six defensive TDs this season, and I’m almost expecting another one against the Commanders.
Dallas Cowboys Pick 6 off of Bryce Young‼️
This Dallas defense is totally back!
Dak Prescott looks somewhat confident again!
Could they really challenge the Eagles 👀
— BallTalkSource (@BallTalkSource) November 19, 2023
Miami Dolphins DST @NYJ
Yahoo Rostership%: 79%
Vegas Odds: MIA favored by 7.5
Over/Under (Total Points): 41.5
Implied points against: 17
Opponent rank vs. DSTs: 32nd
If you have been reading this series, you know I’ve had my eye on the Dolphins' defense for weeks. The reason? The best four-game stretch of DST matchups in the league, by far, starts this week against the Jets, who have taken over as my easiest matchup. Sure, Zach Wilson is now the third-string QB for the Jets, but the move to Tim Boyle as the starter could end up being even better for opposing defenses. The Dolphins have been a much better unit since Jalen Ramsey returned from injury, and they should feast on the Jets, ranked 30th in offensive DVOA.
After this week, the Dolphins face the Commanders (30th vs. DSTs), Titans (28th vs. DSTs), and the Jets again in the first week of the fantasy playoffs. If you grabbed the Dolphins when their rostership was much lower, you’re set through Week 15. But you will want to look at other options if you get to Week 16 and 17 as they’ll face the Cowboys and Ravens, respectively.
Dolphins defense WITHOUT Jalen Ramsey:
- 27th in success rate
- 20th in EPA/play allowed
- 20th in yards allowed/gameDolphins defense WITH Jalen Ramsey:
- 6th in success rate
- 6th in EPA/play allowed
- 3rd in yards allowed/gameThe Ramsey effect is here, and it’s real. pic.twitter.com/7Sg9h5CazE
— Nico (@elitetakes_) November 20, 2023
Tier 2 Defenses – Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 12
Cleveland Browns DST @DEN
Yahoo Rostership%: 92%
Vegas Odds: DEN favored by 1.5
Over/Under (Total Points): 36.5
Implied points against: 19
Opponent rank vs. DSTs: 16th
The Browns probably have the best defense in the NFL and draw a decent matchup against the Broncos in Week 12. The Browns DST has been a common discussion topic resulting from this article series over that month or so. Questions arose with some of their recent negative matchups with fantasy managers contemplating streamers with better matchups. More often than not, the conversation led to the decision of just rolling with the Browns for the rest of the season, regardless of matchup. This has proven to be the smart move.
The Browns DST currently ranks as the DST2 in PPG (10.4), behind only the Cowboys, and have averaged 12 PPG since their Week 5 bye. And now Browns DST managers are rewarded for staying the course with a great rest-of-season schedule. Of the top-level defenses, only the Chiefs have a better schedule.
Through 11 weeks, the Browns' defense has been the hardest ever* to earn a first down against relative to league average
(average series conversion rate in 2023 = 70%, Browns have allowed 56%)
* since 1999 pic.twitter.com/gY2BgNAoG0
— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) November 20, 2023
San Francisco 49ers DST @SEA
Yahoo Rostership%: 98%
Vegas Odds: SF favored by 6.5
Over/Under (Total Points): 43.5
Implied points against: 18.5
Opponent rank vs. DSTs: 11th
The 49ers proved they aren’t unstoppable during their three-game losing streak in Weeks 6-8. During that stretch their DST crashed down to earth as well, averaging only four PPG. They seem to have righted the ship after their Week 9 bye. In the last two games versus the Jaguars and Buccaneers, the 49ers have nine sacks and six turnovers and have averaged 15.5 fantasy PPG. The Seahawks have not been a plus matchup for opposing DSTs, and the crowd noise in Seattle is a real thing.
However, Kenneth Walker is unlikely to play on the short turn-round with the game being on Thanksgiving, and Geno Smith is also questionable to play. This likely won’t be the same offense that currently ranks as the 11th-toughest matchup for DSTs. Losing all-pro safety Talanoa Hufanga to a knee injury is a big loss for the 49ers defense. But, whether a less than 100% Smith plays, or the Seahawks have to start Drew Lock, the 49ers' defensive line should be able to get pressure early and often against the Seahawks’ bottom-10 offensive line.
Pittsburgh Steelers DST @CIN
Yahoo Rostership%: 89%
Vegas Odds: CIN favored by 1.5
Over/Under (Total Points): 34.5
Implied points against: 18
Opponent rank vs. DSTs: 18th
This matchup would look a lot worse with Joe Burrow at QB for the Bengals. But, with Burrow’s season-ending injury in Week 11, it will be Jake Browning behind center for Cincinnati in Week 12. There is no track record in the NFL for Browning. Before he took over for Burrow against the Ravens, he had thrown one career pass (earlier this season). This kind of forced action with someone as inexperienced as Browning rarely works out right away, making for a great target to play your DST against.
The Steelers are currently the DST5 in PPG, have not allowed more than 20 points since Week 4, have at least one interception in six straight games, and rank seventh in defensive DVOA. They are a great DST option in Week 12.
I'm sorry, this is ridiculous. #Steelers defense:
-Held Cleveland to 259 total yards
-3.4 yards per play
-3.3 yards per rush
-3.9 yards per pass
-Held CLV to 33% in RZ
-Won turnover battle
-Forced eight puntsWhat more do you want from a defense? They allowed 13 points! https://t.co/3wmPDUoXOZ
— Josh Carney (@ByJoshCarney) November 19, 2023
Detroit Lions DST vs. GB
Yahoo Rostership%: 65%
Vegas Odds: DET favored by 7.5
Over/Under (Total Points): 45.5
Implied points against: 19
Opponent rank vs. DSTs: 17th
The Lions are a defense that has thrived in plus matchups and been destroyed against the better offenses. The Packers fit in the former category, and as a 7.5-point home favorite with an implied points against under 20, the Lions are a solid play against Jordan Love, who the Lions sacked five times and picked off twice in their Week 4 matchup in Green Bay. This game is in Detroit, where the Lions DST has averaged 11 fantasy PPG this season.
New England Patriots DST @NYG
Yahoo Rostership%: 25%
Vegas Odds: NE favored by 3.5
Over/Under (Total Points): 34
Implied points against: 15.3
Opponent rank vs. DSTs: 29th
The winner of the “playing against the Giants” sweepstakes for Week 12 is New England. The Giants' offense was surprisingly effective under QB Tommy Devito in Week 11 as they employed the smart strategy of just getting the ball to Saquon Barkley. But the Commanders’ defense is beyond bad and still managed to score eight fantasy points against the Giants.
The Patriots have been a mediocre fantasy DST at best this season, but they have been tough on RBs, ranking in the Top 10 of toughest matchups for fantasy RBs, including RB receiving output. If they can contain Barkley, the Patriots should be able to hold the Giants close to their already low implied total of only 15.3 points.
Tier 3 Defenses – Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 12
Minnesota Vikings DST vs. CHI
Yahoo Rostership%: 29%
Vegas Odds: MIN favored by 3.5
Over/Under (Total Points): 45
Implied points against: 20.8
Opponent rank vs. DSTs: 25th
The Vikings have been a “peaks and valleys” DST this season, having only one sack in four games and having at least four sacks in four games. Since Week 6 Minnesota does have 16 sacks and has forced 11 turnovers, and has allowed 20+ points only once. Week 6 was also their first game against this Bears team (in Chicago). In that game the Vikings had five sacks, forced three turnovers, and scored a defensive TD leading to the unit’s best fantasy day of the season.
The Bears currently rank 25th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to DSTs and have allowed a POA of +3.8 PPG on the season. At only 29% rostered, the Vikings are a solid streaming option in Week 12.
New Orleans Saints DST @ATL
Yahoo Rostership%: 46%
Vegas Odds: ATL favored by 1.5
Over/Under (Total Points): 41.5
Implied points against: 21.5
Opponent rank vs. DSTs: 26th
The Saints' rostership fell below 50% during their Week 11 bye so they technically qualify as a streamer option in Week 12. They face the Falcons, the seventh-best matchup for fantasy DSTs in adjusted fantasy points allowed. Atlanta ranks 25th in offensive DVOA and can’t seem to make up their mind at the QB position. The Saints are coming off of a bye so they’ve had two weeks to prepare for this matchup with their division rival. They are a high-floor, low-ceiling streamer play in Week 12.
Baltimore Ravens DST @LAC
Yahoo Rostership%: 94%
Vegas Odds: BAL favored by 4
Over/Under (Total Points): 45.5
Implied points against: 20.8
Opponent rank vs. DSTs: 3rd
The Ravens are an elite defense and are about as close to a “set it and forget it” as you can get. But their Week 12 circumstances, a road matchup with the third-toughest Chargers, is the main reason for ranking them 11th on the week. The Ravens have their bye in Week 13 and a plus matchup with the Rams in Week 14. After that, they have the third-toughest Fantasy Playoff schedule against the Jaguars, 49ers, and Dolphins. As good as this defense is, I would consider an alternative for the playoffs.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. PIT
Yahoo Rostership%: 29%
Vegas Odds: CIN favored by 1.5
Over/Under (Total Points): 34.5
Implied points against: 16.5
Opponent rank vs. DSTs: 15th
The Bengals get a home game against the 15th-ranked Steelers in Week 12. With one of the lowest over-under point totals of the week, I like the Bengals as a high-floor streaming option if some of the better or higher-rostered DSTs are not available. The Bengals are slight favorites in this game which also produces one of the lower implied points against of 16.5. Moving to the qualitative side of things, the Steelers offense could experience a boost simply due to former Offensive Coordinator Matt Canada being fired on Tuesday morning (Hooray!), but Kenny Pickett is still Kenny Pickett, so I like the Bengal's chances of forcing a few turnovers along with keeping the Steelers under 20 points.
Denver Broncos DST vs. CLE
Yahoo Rostership%: 33%
Vegas Odds: DEN favored by 1.5
Over/Under (Total Points): 36.5
Implied points against: 17.5
Opponent rank vs. DSTs: 23rd
It feels strange including the Broncos defense any higher than Tier 4, but this is not the same defense that gave up 70 points to the Dolphins in Week 3. This does not mean the Broncos should be confused with a good defense as they still rank 32nd in defensive DVOA. But Denver's DST has been playing well over the last three games. In games against the Chiefs, Bills, and Vikings (all wins for the Broncos), the Broncos' DST has a POA of +5.2, meaning they have scored 5.2 points more than those teams have been allowing to DSTs on average. This includes a 17-point fantasy day against the Chiefs. Dorian Thompson-Robinson played well enough in Week 11 for the Browns to squeak out a win against the Steelers, but he is still an inexperienced, fifth-round rookie, and I like the Broncos at home with an implied points against of only 17.5.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers DST @IND
Yahoo Rostership%: 29%
Vegas Odds: IND favored by 1.5
Over/Under (Total Points): 43
Implied points against: 22.3
Opponent rank vs. DSTs: 19th
The Buccaneers face the 19th-ranked Colts in Week 12. The Buccaneers are road underdogs with an implied points against of 22.3, but their inclusion at the end of Tier 3 is because I think this game will be close and potentially higher-scoring than the over-under total indicates. You might not get much from the "points allowed" scoring setting for DSTs, but I like the Buccaneers chances for some turnovers and sacks against Gardner Minshew in this game.
Tier 4 Defenses – Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 12
The Tier 4 defenses are mostly available and there are a few decent streaming options if you’re stuck. Unlike Tier 5, some of these DSTs in Tier 4 are decent plays in Week 12. However, all the defenses in the previous tiers should be prioritized over these teams.
Tier 5 Defenses – Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 12
These are the defenses that I would not be playing in Week 12 unless you absolutely have to. These units are either going up against a top offense in the league, aren’t a good defense in general, or both. They offer low ceilings and significantly low floors that can hurt your chances of winning your fantasy matchup. Avoid all these choices entirely and try to get a defense in the top two to three tiers for Week 12.
Rest-of-Season Look-Ahead
The following chart shows each fantasy defense’s remaining schedule with each opponent color-coded based on rank in adjusted fantasy points allowed to DSTs. Red and orange indicate tougher matchups while green represents easier matchups. Each opponent’s corresponding number rank can be found on the right side of the chart. Also included are the strength of schedule ranks for the rest of the season (Weeks 12-17) and the fantasy playoffs (Weeks 15-17).
A strategy this visual depiction assists with is developing what I like to call a Streaming Action Plan. This is also something I’ll be updating or adding to each week where I present potential action plans for DST streamers over multiple future weeks. Of course, a lot can change (and quickly) in the NFL, but I am constantly utilizing this look-ahead “puzzle piece” strategy so I want to share it with you. Unless otherwise noted, this will feature DST options that are below a 50% rostership during the current week.
I like to look four to five weeks ahead when strategizing these action plans. We are far enough into the season to consider an action plan through the Fantasy Playoffs. Looking at Weeks 12-17, here are potential pieces and weekly options for a DST Streaming Action Plan:
- Week 12: Lions (vs. GB), Patriots (@NYG), Vikings (vs. CHI),
Bengals (vs. PIT). - Week 13: Buccaneers (vs. CAR), Colts (@TEN), Falcons (@NYJ).
- Week 14: Buccaneers (@ATL), Packers (@NYG), Texans (@NYJ), Vikings (@LV).
- Week 15: Colts (vs. NYG), Texans (@TEN), Falcons (@CAR).
- Week 16: Texans (vs. CLE), Packers (@CAR), Broncos (vs. NE).
- Week 17: Texans (vs. TEN), Colts (vs. LV), Jaguars (vs. CAR), Rams (@NYG).
Full D/ST Rankings for Week 12
In addition to going through each of the five DST tiers for Week 12, here is the full list of ranks for all 32 teams. The chart includes each team’s tier, Week 12 rank, Yahoo rostership, opponent, opponent rank versus the DST position, the over/under, spread, and implied points against.
Thank you so much for reading! I love diving deep into the data in search of statistics and combinations of statistics that can help you make the best decisions possible in the maze of fantasy football decisions. If you have any questions about this article or general questions about fantasy football, reach out to me on X (@MunderDifflinFF).
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