Finding Tight End Breakouts - Champs, Chumps, and Contenders

Robert Lorge looks for fantasy football tight end breakouts heading into Week 6. He uses advanced stats for tight ends to find breakouts (champs) and fallers (chumps) to add or drop.

Through five weeks of the NFL, fantasy managers have had to deal with an ever-changing top-10 at the tight end position. It's really not anything new if you've been playing fantasy football longer than... well, yesterday. This position has long been one with a lot of turnover and very few consistent options on a week-to-week basis.

This year, fantasy managers have seen 28 different tight ends finish with a top-10 finish in half-PPR scoring. Zero of them have been top-10 in all five weeks and only Travis Kelce has been in the top-1o in four out of five weeks. There have been just five tight ends finish in the top-10 three times. Those five tight ends are Darren Waller, Tyler Higbee, Noah Fant, Dalton Schultz and Dawson Knox. That leaves eight ends with two top-1o finishes and nine with just one such finish.

That should illustrate just how hard this position is to figure out and why, despite all the stats and numbers in the world, there are still a lot more misses than there are hits. Finding a tight end after the top-five is kind of hitting in baseball. You may only hit .230, but man, when you connect and hit that homer... damn! It feels good. So with that, let's keep looking for that hanging curveball we can smash over the fence. And at that same time, let's make sure we can identify those high fastballs we don't want to be swinging at too.

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David Njoku, Cleveland Browns

Njoku popped off in a big way in Week 5, rattling off 149 yards on seven catches and one touchdown. That kind of fantasy production is going to catch the eye of just about any fantasy manager who does not roster any of the top-six options. How many tight ends are capable of putting up 24.4 half-PPR points in a singular week? Through five weeks, there have only been nine players who have scored 20+ points. So you see, it's not something that happens very frequently. That kind of upside is worth chasing too.

In Week 5, Mayfield dropped back to pass 32 times and Njoku ran 21 routes. That 66% route participation isn't as high as fantasy managers would like, but what is appealing is he was targeted on nine of those 21 routes. That means he was targeted on 43% of the routes he ran. That percentage isn't sustainable, even if Odell Beckham Jr. isn't what he used to be.

#Browns TE David Njoku yesterday:

▪️ 92.5 @PFF grade
▪️ 149 receiving yards (first career 100-yard game)
▪️ 10.2 expected points added
▪️ 71 percent success rate

His finest game for the Orange and Brown.

— Cody Suek (@CodySuek) October 11, 2021

The hope for Njoku is that he's able to become the primary receiving tight end for the Browns. In Week 5, Austin Hooper ran 18 routes, which gave Njoku a three-route advantage over his tight end counterpart. While Hooper continues to lead Njoku in snap counts – it's a lot closer than most would realize. Through five weeks, Hooper has played on 237 snaps with Njoku right behind him at 219. This roughly comes out to 3–4 more snaps per week.

Among tight ends with at least 15 targets on the year, Njoku is fourth with an average depth of target of 10.1 yards. That showcases some of the upside Njoku has if he could start carving out a regular role for the Browns. Unfortunately, his targets have been all over the place. He had five in Week 1 and nine in Week 5, but just five in Weeks 2–4.

At this time, fantasy managers don't need to go chasing last week's points. However, he's someone fantasy managers need to keep an eye on. If Njoku takes over as the primary tight end in Cleveland, there is some upside to be had here. The target hierarchy in Cleveland is very undecided. The tight ends for the Browns have commanded over a 30% target share – if Njoku could take half of that, fantasy managers might have something here.

Dan Arnold, Jacksonville Jaguars

Arnold was traded to the Jaguars before their Week 4 game, but never really had a chance of playing a role in that matchup due to his short tenure with his new team at that time. He wasted no time in making his presence felt in Week 5, however.

Dan Arnold in his 2nd game with the #Jaguars yesterday ...

* 73% snaps
* 74% routes
* 8 targets (24% share)
* 6-64-0

— Jared Smola (@SmolaDS) October 11, 2021

If fantasy managers are rostering Kyle Pitts or George Kittle and are looking for a viable option for Week 6, Arnold offers a lot of streaming appeal. He had eight targets out of Trevor Lawrence's 34 pass attempts and ran a route on 74% of his dropbacks. Those are some elite numbers. That kind of usage gives Arnold a lot of opportunities.

We've seen the Jaguars lean on their tight ends in a big way throughout this season. In Week 1, James O'Shaughnessy ran 40 routes and had eight targets. O'Shaughnessy suffered a season-ending injury in Week 2, but in Week 3 Jacob Hollister received six targets. In Week 4, the Jaguars used a tight end by committee approach as the team used four different tight ends. However, when fantasy managers look at the three weeks where they had a clear starter, the tight ends have averaged over seven targets per game. That kind of usage has staying power year long, especially with the Jaguars expected to be chasing points more weeks than not.

Ricky Seals-Jones, Washington Football Team

Seals-Jones doesn't have season-long staying power, not with Logan Thomas due back from IR in a few weeks, but he can be a viable fantasy asset until he does.

Ricky Seals-Jones' Week 5 usage:

99% snaps
42 routes on 53 dropbacks
20% target share
3 red zone targets

— Frank Stampfl (@Roto_Frank) October 11, 2021

The numbers above illustrate the kind of fantasy upside Seals-Jones has until the day Thomas comes back. He immediately walked right into Logan Thomas' role and he did very well there. He caught five of his eight targets for 41 yards and there was ample opportunity for much more with three red zone targets.

With a Week 6 date against Kansas City's terrible defense, there's a lot of streaming appeal to be had with Seals-Jones. Fantasy managers shouldn't be afraid to immediately slot him into their starting lineup until Thomas returns.

Anthony Firkser, Tennessee Titans

In Weeks 1 and 4 (Firkser missed Weeks 2 and 3), he ran 68 routes and received nine targets. No other tight end ran more than 20 routes during those two games. That usage especially with the injuries at wide receiver had Firkser as a tight end to watch. However, a lot changed in Week 5.

Last week, Tannehill threw the ball 22 times and Firkser was only in a route on 14 of them. MyCole Pruitt ran seven routes. The bigger problem is Firkser's snap share. In Week 1, he played only 48%. In Week 4, it was at 50% and in Week 4, it decreased to 42%. In Week 5, Firkser only garnered four targets.

While the opportunity and usage he had in Weeks 1 and 4 were something to be optimistic about in terms of possible fantasy production, the reality is Firkser has done very little with it. Despite being the primary receiving tight end for the Titans, fantasy managers can safely leave Firkser on the waiver wire.

Robert Tonyan, Green Bay Packers

Has there been a more frustrating tight end to roster this season than Robert Tonyan? To be fair, a lot of the struggles fantasy managers are seeing this season should have been expected.

In Week 5, Tonyan ran only 25 routes out of Rodgers' 39 dropbacks. That equals just a 64% route participation rate for dropbacks. His seasonal route rate of 75% is much more healthy, but Tonyan has been invisible on those routes. He's been targeted on just 12% of his routes.

Robert Tonyan receiving yards by week #GBvsCIN

8
52
6
8
8

— Nathan Jahnke (@PFF_NateJahnke) October 10, 2021

Fantasy managers can safely drop Tonyan. He was incredibly touchdown dependant in 2020 and those touchdowns have expectedly dried up. With an average of just three targets per game, there is no upside to be had here with the Packer tight end. Through five weeks, he has only five more catches and 22 more yards than Marcedes Lewis.

Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears

It's getting harder and harder to stay the course with Cole Kmet, but I'm telling you – stay the course. Through five weeks, Cole Kmet has a 15.5% target share, which ranks 11th among tight ends. He's smack dab in the middle of T.J. Hockenson and Rob Gronkowski. That's not a bad place to be.

The problem – the Bears have only passed it 37 times the past two weeks. With games against the Lions and Raiders, the Bears rattled off back-to-back wins with a combined score of 44-23. In the next three weeks, however, they'll face the Packers, Buccaneers, and 49ers, so fantasy managers can expect the Bears to need to throw the ball more. With increased passing volume, Kmet's fantasy production should follow.

The past 2 weeks, Cole Kmet is 5th in air yards among TE’s & his average depth of target is 19.7 yards over that time.

On the season his average depth of target is 10.2 yards, which is 2nd to only Darren Waller (10.3) among TE’s with at least 15 targets.

Don’t give up yet.

— Rob (@RobFFAddict) October 14, 2021

Since Justin Fields took over as the starting quarterback, Kmet has run a route on over 81% of his dropbacks. Over the past two weeks, he's received seven targets out of those 37 pass attempts. That equals a 19% target share. Noah Fant and Dalton Schultz are two other tight ends at a 19% target share. Again, the problem is the pass attempts are just way too low, but Detroit and Las Vegas didn't challenge Chicago. As their competition gets harder, the Bears will be forced to pass more and that will increase Kmet's volume. It's getting hard for fantasy managers to keep the faith with Kmet, but all the peripherals look great for Kmet – hang on.

Noah Fant, Denver Broncos

Fantasy managers are likely a bit frustrated with Fant after his three-catch and 20-yard performance in Week 5. He has struggled a bit in recent weeks, having not topped 50 yards since Week 1. All this has done is created an excellent buy-low window for fantasy managers streaming tight ends. Don't be hesitant to make a play for Noah Fant and here's why.

TE target share leaders

Darren Waller - 24.6%
Mark Andrews- 23.9%
Travis Kelce - 23.0%
Dalton Schultz- 19.0%
Noah Fant - 18.9%

— TJ Hernandez (@TJHernandez) October 12, 2021

He's averaging the ninth-most targets per game at the tight end position. His target share ranks fifth among all tight ends. If you're able to leverage Jerry Jeudy's eventual return from IR and are able to buy Fant on the cheap, it's a great deal to make.

He has run a route on 149 of the Broncos' 170 dropbacks. That is an elite 88% rate. He's also tied for third among tight ends with six red-zone targets. The usage and opportunity in Denver for Fant is excellent and fantasy managers should be expecting a return to solid fantasy production soon. The last two matchups against the Ravens and Steelers were far from friendly and during the Ravens game, Teddy Bridgewater was knocked out of the game with a concussion.

Prior to those two games, the Broncos had the Jaguars and Jets and only threw the ball 59 times, winning both games by a collective, 49–13. Moving forward, Fant has more fantasy-friendly matchups coming against teams that will keep the Broncos competitive and having to throw.

If there's one negative to Fant, it's that he's not running many routes from the slot position. This is unlikely to change with Sutton, Patrick and Jeudy due back soon. Fant is relegated to running the majority of his routes from the in-line position. This naturally limits his upside to a degree because it tends to drop the depth of the targets he receives, which is only six yards per attempt. Still, he has excellent usage and the target share is great. Fant has slumped a bit recently, but he's still a top-10 tight end with upside.

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