RADIO
If I had the time and approval, I could come here every single day and give you hard-hitting data analysis. We could learn all kinds of stuff and do all kinds of speculating and projecting, getting very into the granular data. I do that from time to time on here, but I'm not so egg-headed as to think that's what the people really want.
What the people really want is PICKS. You, foolishly or not, look to us writers here at RotoBaller as "experts". It's true that I spend more time than 99% of the population researching fantasy baseball things, and I suppose that does make for a somewhat reputable source. That does not mean that I won't be horribly wrong all the time, but look - you're here reading this anyway.
What you want, I suspect, is for me to get straight to the picks! Half of you probably aren't even intending to read the words here but rather just go to the bold headings and get those player names. That's what I do half the time when I'm reading other people's work, so I'm going to make this one easy on you. I will stop the intro after this next sentence and get to the goods. Below, you will find three picks from me at each position, one being my favorite "expensive" pick (typically a top 30 pick), one being my favorite "value" pick (a mid-round pick that I really like the price on), and one "punt" pick - a late-round name that I think could end up being a viable starter this year.
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Catcher
Expensive: MJ Melendez, Kansas City Royals (ADP 106)
Those who drafted Daulton Varsho last year got ahead of the competition just by having a catcher that logged 591 plate appearances. He got there mainly because he wasn't actually a catcher, playing most of his season in the outfield. There are a few versions of that player this year, but the one I like the most (still considering the cost a bit here) is Melendez. He is likely to be the Royals starting hitter while logging most of his playing time in the outfield. This gives him a 550+ PA projection, which goes quite a long way all by itself.
Factor in the fact that the guy can really rake (slashed .270/.372/.579 in the minors between 2021 and 2022, a 10.4% Brl% in the Majors last year) and you have a player with huge upside for fantasy purposes. Maybe he won't hit for a great batting average or steal many bases, but the power is for real and he could be among the position's top players in scoring runs as well.
Value: Logan O'Hoppe, Anaheim Angels (ADP 240)
Over the last two seasons in the minors, O'Hoppe has slashed .276/.374/.499 with 43 homers and 13 steals across 885 plate appearances. We have seen almost nothing from in the Majors, however, so that does make the pick a bit risky. It is not uncommon whatsoever to see a guy that crushes minor league pitching struggle mightily in the Majors (hello, Jarred Kelenic!), but at the catching position, we can afford to take on a little bit more risk to get some of that upside. The thing I like most about O'Hoppe's profile is the 17% strikeout rate he posted in the minors over that large sample. Minor league strikeout rate does tend to be at least a little bit predictive of Major League strikeout rate, so I think it's safe to project him for a K% under 25%, and we know he has pop.
We don't know if O'Hoppe will be the Angels' Opening Day catcher, but I don't think it will be long before he is regardless - they don't have anybody blocking him in the Majors. You can get yourself a catcher that could be one of the better offensive producers at the position here, and you can get him after pick 200. I'm in.
Punt: Nick Fortes, Miami Marlins (ADP 241)
The best guess is that Jacob Stallings dominates playing time for the Marlins behind the plate. He is a superb defensive catcher, which is the main thing teams tend to want from their backstops. However, if Fortes can find some playing time - the guy can hit.
We saw Fortes hit 13 bombs in just 274 plate appearances in the Majors last year, and he attempted nine steals as well (six successfully). That gives you a guy with 10-homer, 10-steal upside even if he does settle into a backup role. Of course, if he's only starting twice a week, you don't want him in fantasy - but it's possible that he can see more playing time than that if something would happen to Stallings or if the Marlins just choose to opt for more offense at the position.
First Base
Expensive: Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves (ADP 44)
I'm not truly just giving my favorite hitter at the position regardless of price, because that is never how you should be drafting a team. We need to be price-conscious with every single pick. So while I would firmly expect Freddie Freeman, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Pete Alonso to have better fantasy seasons than Olson, the fact that I get Olson in the third or fourth round rather than the first or second makes a big difference for me.
We have seen fewer and fewer 30+ homer players every year since 2019, so I really want at least two reliable power hitters. Olson gives us that, and we don't have to use a top-30 pick on him - which I like a lot.
Value: Anthony Rizzo, New York Yankees (ADP 150)
We did see some news this spring that Rizzo has some back issues that he does not expect to ever go away, so that is concerning. However, it's not a new thing necessarily, and he seems confident that he can play through it.
Assuming that he can stay in the lineup, Rizzo is a great pick where he is getting drafted. First base is one of the few very deep positions, and he's one of my favorite ways to attack the position after I get ahead of the pack in the more shallow spots earlier on in the draft. Yankees Stadium fits Rizzo's profile perfectly. He pulls a bunch of fly balls in the air, and there is no better place to do that than where he is.
He projects for more than 25 homers, and he's basically the last name at the position that does that. A draft strategy I try to take on is to get a lot of the guys that the last player in a tier. That unlocks solid projections for lower cost, and Rizzo is a great example of a way to do that. If I do end up with Rizzo, I will probably be wanting a strong backup option just in case the back stuff causes problems.
Punt: Josh Naylor, Cleveland Guardians (ADP 226)
Naylor is a skilled hitter. He has that difficult-to-find combination of power and contact ability.
With Josh Bell showing up in Cleveland this year, we will probably see Naylor hit the bench from time to time against a left-handed starter. That isn't enough to deter me from grabbing him this late in the draft, because the upside really is 25+ homers with a .270+ batting average. How many first basemen after the top tier can you say that about?
Second Base
Expensive: Jazz Chisholm Jr., Miami Marlins (ADP 40)
I have written about Jazz a bunch on these RotoBaller pages, but I did hesitate to name him as my favorite expensive guy here. The top two at shortstop are pretty clear - Jose Altuve and Marcus Semien. There is a lot more safety with those two names than with Jazz, especially considering the back and knee issues we saw him struggle through last season. You get a ton of upside with Jazz, but the price isn't all that much different than the two aforementioned second basemen who go near pick 30.
The thing that pushes me over the top is that Jazz will add outfield eligibility this year. He is slated to be the Marlins' everyday center fielder, and adding that position makes a big difference for him. We have seen Chisholm as a great source of steals in his time in the Majors, and last year he showed improved power as well. There is some 30-30 upside with Chisholm. I could see him being a first-rounder next year, and you might be able to snag him in the fourth or fifth round this year.
Value: Jorge Polanco, Minnesota Twins (ADP 149)
Polanco in 2021: 644 PA, .269/.323/.503, 33 HR, 11 SB
Polanco in 2022: 450 PA, .237/.349/.409, 16 HR, 3 SB
He was a disappointment last year, and a lot of that had to do with the missed time. You might think there was a decline in skills here too that resulted in the much lower slugging percentage and batting average. But let's look at some more numbers:
2021: 18% K%, 10.1% Brl%, .263 xBA, .341 xwOBA
2022: 21% K%, 10.2% Brl%, .247 xBA, .356 xwOBA
We saw a bit less contact from Polanco, but we actually saw increased power indicators. The price has simply fallen too far on him, and I think he'll easily be a top-ten second baseman again if he can stay healthy.
Punt: Nick Gordon, Minnesota Twins (ADP 282)
I have found myself drafting quite a few Twins this year. Gordon is on the fringe of being a starter for the Twins, however, I have confidence that the fact that he can play all over the field will keep him in the lineup more than enough. What I love about Gordon is the 9.4% barrel rate and 24% strikeout rate he flashed last year. That's an above-average barrel rate with an average strikeout rate, and it comes near pick 300. He also has above-average speed with 61st percentile sprint speed, and I think that could get him to double-digit steals. I love the upside with Gordon, especially considering he's only entering his age-27 season.
Shortstop
Expensive: Bo Bichette, Toronto Blue Jays (ADP 15)
Another draft strategy I like to take is to jump on the guys that fall a round or two in ADP from year to year without showing anything overly alarming in their profile. Last year, Bichette was a top-six pick in most drafts. This year, he's often going in the middle of the second round. Okay, that's not a massive fall-off, but it's more than enough to make me want to get my hands on him.
Every projection system has Bichette for 15+ steals and 20+ homers. The only projection system (mine!) that is accounting for the expected league-wide gain in steals has him for 22 steals. All of that while you get a .280+ batting average. The aggregate projections value Bichette at $19, and Trea Turner at $20. I am happy to take Bichette a round later than Trea for only the $1 expected cost. He's my favorite expensive shortstop.
Value: Willy Adames, Milwaukee Brewers (ADP 94)
I mentioned above that fewer and fewer hitters have been able to clear 30 homers in the last couple of seasons.
Adames was one of those 23 hitters last season, really excelling in his first full season away from Tampa Bay. It did come with an anemic .238 batting average, which was right in line with the expected batting average of .238. However, we can forgive Willy for that if he's going to manage another 30+ homer season. He is another guy with above-average speed that might just take advantage of the new rules and steal 15+ bases (he swiped eight last year). The two positions I am most likely to wait on in drafts this year are first base and shortstop, and that strategy leads me to draft Adames quite often - and I am perfectly happy to do so.
Punt: Luis Garcia, Washington Nationals (ADP 314)
The Nationals are sure to be one of the league's worst teams in 2023. That is bad news for their players counting stats, but it is good news for the playing time projections for their young players. Garcia is one of their more talented young players, slashing .306/.368/.554 with 21 homers in 364 minor league PAs from 2021 through 2022.
The good news about his Major League profile is that he has a bunch of bat speed, as evidenced by his 113.4 max exit velocity last year, and he controls the strikeouts (22%). The bad news is that he's a free swinger (he was well below average in chase rate and swing decision metrics). That gives him a steep hill to climb to truly enter fantasy relevance, but the raw physical ability is there and the price is right.
Third Base
Expensive: Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Guardians (ADP 3)
I understand that it is lame to just pick the top guy at the position, but I also think it's lame to not tell the truth. If I have the first pick in the draft this year, I am almost surely using it on Ramirez.
Value: Matt Chapman, Toronto Blue Jays (ADP 154)
Yet another 30+ projected homer guy here, and a guy that improved his strikeout rate a year ago (from 33% down to 27%). If he can put up another strikeout rate like that, he's going to beat the draft cost here. The Blue Jays' lineup is good, his power is reliable, and the price is quite nice.
Punt: Anthony Rendon, Los Angeles Angels (ADP 238)
It was easy to fade Rendon and his injury history the last couple of seasons given the price, but it's a new story this year. Rendon routinely falls past pick 250, and I'm more than comfortable with that.
I generally like to be aggressive on the "injury-prone" players, because we find that players are only "injury prone" until they're not. I don't see any reason that Rendon can't put together a full season in 2023, and that should result in a good batting average with 15+ homers and a large number of RBI hitting behind Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout (or a large number of runs if he hits ahead of them).
Outfield
Expensive: Kyle Tucker, Houston Astros (ADP 6)
Tucker is a soul-skater, there is nothing he can't do (Brink reference, anyone?). The aggregate projection for him is 31 homers, 22 steals, and a .271 batting average. Only three players project for 30+ homers, 20+ steals, and a .270+ batting average (Ramirez and Tatis). To me, Tucker gives you production you'd be happy with the first overall pick, and you can get him in the middle of round one.
Two more: Yordan Alvarez, Mike Trout
Value: Eloy Jimenez, Chicago White Sox (ADP 76)
Only 10 hitters managed a barrel in more than 10% of their plate appearances last year, and of those ten, Eloy gave us the third-highest batting average. His batted ball profile is near the top of the league, but he remains cheap because of his injury history. I love jumping on the hitters that would be drafted several rounds earlier if not for the injury concerns (except in extreme circumstances like Byron Buxton, Jacob deGrom, and Adalberto Mondesi). To me, Jimenez is not in that bracket of "injury prone-ness" yet, so I'm buying in. He could clear 30 homers with a .300 batting average, and not many players outside of the first 15 picks can do that for you.
Two more: Teoscar Hernandez, Andrew Benintendi
Punt: Jesse Winker, Milwaukee Brewers (ADP 255)
I don't like to spend much time on Narrative Street, but I'm here for now. Winker himself (not the most trustworthy source, admittedly) has come out and said that his struggles last year were due to injury. If that is true (we don't know for sure), then he is set up for a huge bounce-back year in 2023.
The 2022 season really was baffling for the guy. His strikeout rate came up to a career-high 19%, the barrel rate dropped to a three-year low of 7.6%. Now he gets a fresh start in a better park to hit in, and I'm buying in on the bounce-back. He's not a guy I'll be holding tightly onto if he has a bad April, but I'm happy to give him another shot at the completely shredded ADP.
Two more: Alex Kirilloff, Adam Duvall
Just missed the cut: Ramon Laureano, Bryan De La Cruz, Austin Meadows
Starting Pitcher
Expensive: Gerrit Cole, New York Yankees (ADP 18)
Corbin Burnes is my #1, but it's not like I really view these two much differently. Cole tends to go after Burnes, which gives me an extra couple of picks (or dollars) to get him, and there is really something to be said for the ridiculous consistency he has shown us over the years.
There is a good chance he has a season where the home run rate regresses a bit, and that could push his ERA back below 3. He always delivers a 25%+ K-BB%, and there is almost no history of injury. He's a horse, and I like to attack him (or Burnes) in the second round.
Three more: Brandon Woodruff, Aaron Nola, Spencer Strider
Value: George Kirby, Seattle Mariners (ADP 100)
I'm in on the Kirby 2023 eruption. His strikeout rate was lower than we like last year, but the stuff is just so good and he has so many possible way to improve with how good his command is and how many different pitches he throws. It was also very encouraging to see him clear 160 total innings last year, so we don't have the innings concerns that we have with a lot of these young SP breakout picks. I think the floor is incredibly high with the low walk rate and spectacular command metrics, and the upside is absolutely a 27%+ strikeout rate. I think he can be a top-ten SP this year.
Three more: Logan Gilbert, Nick Lodolo, Dustin May
Punt: Nathan Eovaldi, Texas Rangers (ADP 240)
Since 2020, only 19 pitchers have made 50+ starts with a K-BB% above 20%. Eovaldi was bad in the second half of last season, but it was clearly due to him pitching through injury. His velocity disappeared overnight, and that undoubtedly derailed him.
We have already seen the velocity return in spring, which was huge to see. Unfortunately, he had a start pushed back due to tightness in his side, but that might actually end up being a good thing. The velocity readings were inevitably going to push his ADP up, but maybe the bad news that quickly followed would cancel that out. Teams operate with an abundance of caution in the spring, so I'm still drafting Eovaldi aggressively after pick 225.
Three more: Garrett Whitlock, Kenta Maeda, Ken Waldichuk
Relief Pitcher
Expensive: Ryan Pressly, Houston Astros (ADP 57)
It's not my style in most leagues to draft a top closer, but if I'm going there, I really like Pressly. We see Edwin Diaz and Emmanuel Clase fly off the board early on, which does have a deflating effect on a lot of fantasy managers. If they miss the first couple of guys, they may just resign themselves to punting the position and figuring it out later. That pushes Pressly down a bit to the point where it feels much more comfortable.
The Astros are a top-three team in the league, so the saves are going to be there, and as long as Pressly can stay healthy he will absolutely be a top-three source of saves once again in 2023.
Value: David Bednar, Pittsburgh Pirates (ADP 106)
This isn't a value ADP, but I don't think you're actually going to have to pay that price in most leagues. There are plenty of fantasy managers that aren't going to touch a closer on one of the league's worst teams, but Bednar cancels a lot of that concern out with the fact that he has no real competition for saves.
He was the Pirates' best reliever by far last year and has a firm lock on the job. I also think the Pirates team could win 70+ games with a lot of the young talent they have, Bednar is a really nice source of saves here for a price that isn't over the top.
Punt: Alex Lange, Detroit Tigers (ADP 231)
Another talented arm on a bad team. Lange turns out to be very cheap this year because his anchor ADP was established before the trade that sent Gregory Soto to Philadelphia. Lange hasn't been announced as the Tigers' closer (that is also working to keep him cheap), but he's by far the best bet for the job.
What more needs said? I have full confidence that he will be the Tigers' closer on Opening Day, and he's still just silly cheap in drafts.
There you have it, my favorite picks at each position. I hope all of these guys have amazing seasons and everyone who reads this wins their league (unless someone in my leagues reads this...). Happy draft season!
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