June 3, 2017

Ben Ruppert investigates Week 9 trends in Starting Pitcher strikeout rates (K%). These MLB risers and fallers present buying and selling opportunities for your fantasy baseball team.

Missing bats is the #1 way a pitcher can control his own fate. If hitters make contact, the pitcher is largely at the mercy of the atmosphere, the weather, the ball park, the ability/work ethic of his fielders, and sometimes just sheer luck. This is ultimately why strikeouts are so important.

By looking at pitchers with positive trends in their strikeout rate n week 8, we can spot improving or declining pitchers. If the K-rate is improving, but the ERA and WHIP are less than ideal, it can present a buying opportunity. On the flip side, you may want to sell a pitcher with a declining K-rate, if he wasn't supposed to be that good to begin with.

This particular article will focus on two strikeout rate risers and two fallers, and make an attempt to determine how you should treat each pitcher.

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K-Rate Risers

Alex Wood, Los Angeles Dodgers

Season K-Rate: 31%, Last 30 K-Rate: 37%

The injury bug has followed Alex Wood for his entire career, and it’s caught up with him again this season. He is currently on the disabled list with inflammation on his SC joint, but there is some good news on his status. Team doctors examined the injury on Friday and revealed that the inflammation was as “benign as possible.” The positive report means we should see Wood back on the mound around June 10 when the Dodgers face the Cincinnati Reds. Before the injury he was electric on the mound, posting a 1.69 ERA and 1.00 WHIP with a 31.3% K% over eight starts and two relief appearances.

Looking at his career 22.6% K% you might be thinking this has just been a hot stretch for the young lefty, but there have been some major improvements made by Wood this season. The biggest thing to note is his increased fastball velocity. His fastball is up to 92.9mph on average this season, compared to 90.3mph last season. He is still predominantly throwing the heater, but this season has done a better job of mixing in his changeup and curveball. The increased velocity has gotten a bit more vertical movement on each of his pitches, which also attributes to his success this season. The first image below is from Wood’s 2016 season, showing his velocity with the horizontal and vertical movement on his pitches (all graphs courtesy of Fangraphs.com)

This second image is the same, from 2017.

The combination of his velocity bump and a better mix of his pitches has led to a career-high swinging strike %, outside swing %, and a career-low contact %. Health is the concerning factor with Wood, but as long as he’s healthy I’m buying the improvements he’s made this season. Given he is on the disabled list you may be able to buy low on him, and you may have him back next week.

Verdict: Buy

Johnny Cueto, San Francisco Giants

Season K-Rate: 23%, Last 30 K-Rate: 29%

The blister epidemic this season has shown no mercy, with Johnny Cueto being one if it’s several victims. Though Cueto claims the blisters have no affected his play and he will not need to take time to let them heal, his results show he has not been the same pitcher this season. Through 11 starts he holds a 4.37 ERA and 1.23 WHIP, while allowing a career-high 35.9% hard hit %. He has traded ground balls for line drives and fly balls this season, which has helped fuel his 16.2% HR/FB, his highest mark since 2013. He showed some major improvements in his last start, walking one and striking out eight over six innings against the Atlanta Braves. This start was nice, but is Cueto out of the woods yet?

Though his pitch velocities are all about normal this season, Cueto’s control hasn’t been as sharp as in previous seasons. You can look at his walk rate and see it is right in line with his career rate (6.1% this season, career 6.7%), but if you look at his release point and pitch movements from 2016 and 2017, you will see some differences.

2016:

2017:

As you can see, his release point is similar to last season (perhaps just a tad bit lower) but his pitch movements have been all over the place. Despite his ability to still throw strikes, he hasn’t had the same sharp movement on his pitches which has led to opposing hitters taking advantage. He has allowed 11 HR already after allowing only 15 all of last season, and his .248 BAA is his highest mark since 2012.

A 3.95/3.58 FIP/xFIP show there are some better days ahead for Cueto, but given his blister situation it would not be surprising to see him have a down year. Even if he ends the year with an ERA around 3.80, that’s not what Cueto owners drafted him for. If you can sell him after a good start for full price, I would pull the trigger.

Verdict: Sell

K-Rate Fallers

Lance McCullers, Houston Astros

Season K-Rate: 28%, Last 30 K-Rate: 23%

Lance McCullers is known for his big, filthy hook, and striking hitters out. His 30.1% K% would have ranked third among all starters last season had he pitched enough innings to qualify. He was held to only 14 starts last season thanks to an elbow injury, though came into 2017 completely healed and ready to roll. This season McCullers has proven he is more than just a strikeout artist, he is a complete pitcher. Through his first 11 starts, he holds a 2.48 ERA and 1.06 WHIP with a solid 27.6% K%. Most impressive of all, he has managed to lower his BB% from 12.8% to 7.2% while maintaining a high K%.

The strikeouts have been down a bit for McCullers this season, which seems to be by design for the young ace. He is throwing his changeup more this season, to keep hitters honest with his fastball and deadly curveball. His changeup is sporting a career-high 13.6% SwStr%, and it has helped the effectiveness of his other pitches. Opposing hitters hit .261 against him last season; that is down to .207 this season. His 3.00 GB/FB is third in the league right now, which is a tough number to get when fly balls are up league wide. That number looks even better when you consider McCullers is 12^th in the league in soft contact % at 22.6%. Becoming more efficient with his pitches and improving his control (which may have come from him simply being healthy now) has helped him pitch deeper into games, which has turned him from strikeout artist to fantasy ace.

McCullers is absolutely the real deal, with his injury history being the only red flag. He’s healthy now however, and has been pitching like an ace this season. If the owner in your league doesn’t value him as a top-15 to 20 arm, you should be trying to buy.

Verdict: Buy

Michael Pineda, New York Yankees

Season K-Rate: 28%, Last 30 K-Rate: 23%

The advanced stats have loved Michael Pineda since he entered the league, but the past two seasons we’ve seen his ERA end up north of 4.25 despite his FIP and xFIP consistently looking excellent. This season things have been different however. Through 10 starts he holds a 3.32 ERA and 1.04 WHIP, with of course a solid 3.93/2.97 FIP/xFIP. With his FIP and xFIP in line with his career average, it remains to be seen if he can finally pitch to those statistics, or if he’ll fall flat at some point again this season.

Pineda hasn’t seen any big changes in his pitch velocities or movements this season, though he seems to have somewhat fixed his walk problem from last season (2.72 BB/9 down to 1.81 this season). His BAA is down to .221 this season, which is his lowest since 2014. He is generating ground balls at a career-high 50.9% this season, and he has worked his hard hit % down to 28.1%, after being above 30% each of the past two seasons. Pineda has never had an issue throwing his heater for a strike; he just sometimes puts up an absolute meatball that the opposing hitter mashes. Despite his 97 MPH heat, opposing hitters hit over .300 off the pitch each of the past two seasons. This year it is down to .242. Looking at 2016 then 2017, you can see he is mixing up the location of his fastball a bit more this season.

Regardless of how well he pitches, it hurts him pitching in Yankee stadium which is ranked second for HR this season behind only Coors field according to ESPN’s park factor. While he will always carry a higher than average HR/FB, the adjustments he’s made this season seem like the real deal. I would be buying Pineda if someone is selling.

Verdict: Buy

More Risers and Fallers

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