X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Hitter Advanced Metrics Leaders - Expected Home Runs for Week 13

bryan reynolds fantasy baseball rankings draft sleepers MLB injury news

Home runs, we all love 'em. We've been told long ago that a certain sub-population fancies them even more than expected.

It's time to figure out which hitters have been outperforming their expected home run totals and who may be underachieving and potentially due for positive regression. This week, I'll look at the biggest differences between HR-xHR (expected home runs) and xHR-HR, Be sure to heck out all of our Statcast analysis for fantasy baseball at RotoBaller, including our weekly Statcast Pitcher Studs and Duds each week.

Be sure to check all of our preseason fantasy baseball rankings for Roto, Points, H2H, dynasty, best ball, prospects and more:

 

HR-xHR Underachievers

Data taken from BaseballSavant is current as of 7/4/2022

 

Notable Players

Trey Mancini was one of the main topics of discussion in last week's Statcast analysis on Sweet Spot% so I won't expound on his misfortune too much here. The new dimensions at Camden Yards have royally screwed him more than anyone. The reason for optimism here is the notion that he could be shipped off before the trade deadline to a far friendlier atmosphere such as Philadelphia.

Jesse Winker's bad luck started back in the first weeks of the season. He was hitting the ball hard but getting poor results with several fly balls caught at the warning track. Back then, I advised to buy low on Winker and take advantage of the perception that he might not hit in Seattle. It might be too late based on how he's hit lately. Between June 21-30, Winker hit .412 with two HR and eight RBI.


Of course, just as he was heating up, he went hitless in a three-game tilt with Oakland of all teams. Winker remains a strong buy-low in my opinion, especially as the M's get back pieces like Kyle Lewis and Mitch Haniger for the second half of the season.

Alex Verdugo has a 411-foot avg HR distance, 37.5% Sweet Spot%, and an expected slugging in the 82nd percentile. He rarely strikes out (9.9% K%) and gets good wood on the ball regularly. Like Winker, Verdugo only has six home runs but Statcast thinks he should have 10. He also boasts a 50% No Doubt% so even though he doesn't barrel the ball at a high rate. When he gets all of a pitch, he gets ALL of it.

Verdugo has an all-fields hitting approach and focuses on quality contact rather than power. His launch angle and pull rate are unlikely to increase enough to make him a true asset in the power department. With so much thump in the Boston lineup already, his job is to get on base. If things broke right for him, we could see a 20-homer season at some point. It isn't looking promising for 2022 even if his luck turns around.

Ramon Laureano is an interesting name for this list because he's not truly a power hitter but he does have enough thump to help in that category. We've seen it before when he went deep 24 times in 2019 and then again with 14 HR in essentially half a season in 2021. He can elevate the ball and can be aggressive when he sees a fastball, mainly because he can't hit anything else.

His 381 avg HR distance is near the very bottom of the leaderboard. Combined with the fact he plays half his games in Oakland, it's not shocking that his results haven't been better. He's a major candidate to be traded midseason which would boost his value tremendously. Keep an eye on Laureano because he has that coveted power/speed blend all fantasy managers need.

 

HR-xHR Overachievers

Data taken from BaseballSavant is current as of 7/4/2022

 

Notable Players

Bryan Reynolds is the biggest overachiever here which means he could be due for negative regression. His 37% Barrel% and 54% Hard-Hit% speak to that. He had a three-homer game about a week ago in Washington facing soft-tossing Paolo Espino. The Bucs will continue to benefit from intra-division matchups where the Reds and Cubs reside. Reynolds is doing most of his damage on the road and that should continue as well. I don't expect a huge drop in the second half, especially if Pittsburgh's young players such as Oneil Cruz can provide decent lineup protection.

Brendan Rodgers doesn't have a single no-doubter to his name. His 45.2% Hard Hit rate is pretty respectable and he's gradually raised his flyball rate over the last couple of years, giving him a modicum of HR power. The problem is Coors Field. By problem, I mean that Statcast always vastly overestimates its impact on expected stats for both hitters and pitchers. Rodgers actually has the 12th-highest average HR distance among qualified batters at 417 feet. Sure, he benefits from Coors Field but it's not like that's going to change. He's not likely to ever be more than a 20-HR guy at best; it's doubtful he even gets to that mark this season. He still has enough pop to be a serviceable utility guy or MI in 12+ team leagues.

Anthony Rizzo has been one of the more pleasant surprises in fantasy baseball this season. If not for Aaron Judge stealing all the thunder in the Bronx, Rizzo's resurgence would be a bigger story. His 22 HR are tied with Pete Alonso for fifth in the bigs.

If we're going to get nitpicky, however, we see that several of his big flies have barely cleared the fence. He has a difference of 3.4 HR-xHR and eight "doubters" which might have been held by a different ballpark.

Below is a spray chart showing where each of his homers landed with an overlay of Yankee Stadium.

All but one were unsurprisingly pulled to right field. His average HR distance is way down at 389 ft, ranking 189th. Ultimately, if it clears the fence that's all that matters. It should be pointed out that things could easily swing the other way and it would be unwise to expect similar results all season long. If anything, Rizzo remains a sell-high candidate.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Statcast & Fantasy Baseball Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Al Horford9 hours ago

Back On The Injury Report
Derrick White9 hours ago

Off The Injury Report
TJ Friedl10 hours ago

Hits 10-Day Injured List
Aaron Gordon10 hours ago

Cleared To Face Phoenix
Michael Porter10 hours ago

Jr. Good To Go Wednesday
Nikola Jokic10 hours ago

Playing Against Phoenix
Jackson Chourio10 hours ago

Will Start In Right Field Friday
Jrue Holiday10 hours ago

Might Return On Thursday
Khris Middleton10 hours ago

Expected To Play On Thursday Night
Joel Embiid11 hours ago

To Return Soon?
Jamal Murray11 hours ago

Out Again On Wednesday
Rudy Gobert12 hours ago

Ready To Rock Against Pistons
LeBron James12 hours ago

Officially Active Against Memphis
Eduardo Rodriguez12 hours ago

Starts Throwing Program
Anthony Davis12 hours ago

Won't Play Against Grizzlies
Victor Wembanyama12 hours ago

Playing On Wednesday
Anthony Edwards12 hours ago

Will Play Against Detroit
Garrett Mitchell12 hours ago

Will Miss 6-8 Weeks
Aaron Nesmith12 hours ago

Back For Pacers Wednesday
Alec Burks12 hours ago

Remains Out On Wednesday
Chad Green12 hours ago

To Lead Closer Committee In Toronto?
Mitchell Robinson12 hours ago

Returns For Knicks Wednesday
Erik Swanson12 hours ago

Jordan Romano, Erik Swanson Officially Heading To Injured List
Kevin Gausman12 hours ago

To Make Season Debut Sunday Or Monday
Dejounte Murray13 hours ago

Upgraded To Available
John Konchar13 hours ago

Downgraded To Out
Vince Williams13 hours ago

Jr. Misses Another Game On Wednesday
Giannis Antetokounmpo13 hours ago

Expected To Face The Pelicans
Gleyber Torres14 hours ago

Will Bat Leadoff On Opening Day
Mark Hubbard14 hours ago

Coming Off A Career Performance
Davis Thompson14 hours ago

Looking To Pay Off A Stellar Run Of Ball-Striking
Max Scherzer14 hours ago

Making Solid Progress
Akshay Bhatia14 hours ago

Coming Into Houston With Confidence
Thorbjorn Olesen14 hours ago

Still Trying To Find Footing On U.S. Soil
Patrick Rodgers14 hours ago

Fighting Inconsistencies Heading Into Houston
Malik Nabers15 hours ago

Shines At Pro Day
Carolina Panthers15 hours ago

Jadeveon Clowney Signing Two-Year Deal With Panthers
Jordan Lawlar16 hours ago

To Have Thumb Surgery, Out A Couple Months
Wyndham Clark16 hours ago

Battling Back Injury Ahead of Houston Open
San Francisco 49ers17 hours ago

Talanoa Hufanga Expected To Return At Training Camp
MLB17 hours ago

Braves And Phillies Rained Out On Thursday
Jayden Daniels17 hours ago

Raiders To Meet With Jayden Daniels
MLB17 hours ago

Mets And Brewers To Be Postponed Thursday
Tank Bigsby17 hours ago

Jaguars Want Tank Bigsby More Involved
Will Smith17 hours ago

Inks 10-Year Extension With Dodgers
Josh Reynolds17 hours ago

Signs Two-Year Deal With Broncos
Jon Berti18 hours ago

Yankees Acquire Jon Berti From Marlins
Kodai Senga19 hours ago

Throws Wednesday
Matt McLain19 hours ago

Undergoes Shoulder Surgery
Doug Ghim19 hours ago

Looks To Bounce Back At Houston Open
PGA19 hours ago

Cameron Davis Seeking Consistency Ahead Of Houston Open
Thomas Detry19 hours ago

A Gamble At Houston Open
Ryan Fox19 hours ago

Lacks Upside Heading Into Houston Open
Andrew Novak19 hours ago

Will Be Chalk At Houston Open
Josh Doan20 hours ago

Scores Twice In His NHL Debut
Filip Forsberg21 hours ago

Makes History In Big Comeback Win
Jamie Benn21 hours ago

Scores In Fifth Consecutive Game
Sidney Crosby21 hours ago

Collects Three Points Versus Carolina
Artemi Panarin21 hours ago

Continues Scoring Tear With Three Assists
Joey Daccord21 hours ago

Shuts Out Ducks
Sahith Theegala22 hours ago

Showing Consistency This Season
Wyndham Clark22 hours ago

Working Toward Star Status
Scottie Scheffler22 hours ago

Heads To Houston At His Best
Colton Cowser22 hours ago

Makes Opening Day Roster
Sam Ryder23 hours ago

Putting The Lights Out Of Late
Joel Dahmen23 hours ago

All Systems Go For Joel Dahmen In Houston
Kurt Kitayama23 hours ago

Ready For Houston Debut
Ben Griffin23 hours ago

Finding Form Heading To Houston
Yariel Rodriguez1 day ago

Optioned To Triple-A
Taylor Moore1 day ago

Continues Made-Cut Streak Heading To Houston
Adam Svensson1 day ago

Hoping For Consistency In Houston
Taylor Montgomery1 day ago

Looks To Bounce Back In Houston
Jordan Montgomery1 day ago

Diamondbacks Agree On One-Year Deal
Amon-Ra St. Brown1 day ago

Discussing Extension With Lions
Jared Goff1 day ago

Lions Discussing New Deal
J.K. Dobbins1 day ago

Cleared For Football Activities
Los Angeles Rams1 day ago

Tre'Davious White To Join Rams
Jon Gray2 days ago

Dealing With Stiff Neck
PIT2 days ago

Sam Poulin Recalled From AHL
Jack Quinn2 days ago

Could Return Wednesday
Scott Mayfield2 days ago

Undergoes Season-Ending Surgery
TOR2 days ago

Mitch Marner Skates On His Own Tuesday
Trevor Zegras2 days ago

To Return Tuesday
Justus Annunen2 days ago

Inks Two-Year Extension
Nick Chubb2 days ago

Expected To Start Load Running Next Month
Justin Verlander2 days ago

Throws Successful Live BP Session
D'Andre Swift2 days ago

Bears View D'Andre Swift As Receiving Weapon
Cordarrelle Patterson2 days ago

Signing With Steelers
Sam Howell2 days ago

Seahawks Believe Sam Howell Can Be A Full-Time Starter
Tennessee Titans2 days ago

L'Jarius Sneed Agrees On Four-Year Contract With Titans
Dak Prescott2 days ago

No Indication A Deal Is Coming For Dak Prescott
Calvin Ridley2 days ago

To Have Big Role In Tennessee
Josh Jacobs2 days ago

To Be Used More In Passing Game
Brandon Saad2 days ago

Gets Another Goal In Monday's Loss
Logan Thompson2 days ago

Stretches Winning Streak To Three Games
Shea Theodore2 days ago

Maintains Good Scoring Form With An Assist
Brock Boeser2 days ago

Hits Goal No. 37
Cam Talbot2 days ago

Collects Fourth Consecutive Win
Anze Kopitar2 days ago

Records Fourth Straight Multi-Point Game
Oskar Sundqvist2 days ago

Suffers Knee Injury
Elias Lindholm2 days ago

Sits Out Monday
Jonathan Marchessault2 days ago

Bags Overtime Winner Monday
Pittsburgh Steelers2 days ago

Cameron Heyward Expected To Be Healthy For Training Camp
Zach Wilson2 days ago

Jets Could End Up Keeping Zach Wilson
Jarrett Stidham2 days ago

To Compete For Starting Job
Amanda Ribas3 days ago

Takes Decision Loss
Rose Namajunas3 days ago

Snaps Losing Streak
Edmen Shahbazyan3 days ago

Scores Vicious Comeback Knockout
AJ Dobson3 days ago

Knocked Out In The First Round At UFC Vegas 89
Fernando Padilla3 days ago

Gets Back On Track With Submission Win
Luis Pajuelo3 days ago

Submitted In UFC Debut
William Byron3 days ago

Dominates For Victory At COTA
Ty Gibbs3 days ago

Grabs Another Solid Finish At COTA
Chris Buescher3 days ago

Texas Native Chris Buescher Finishes Eighth At COTA
Christopher Bell3 days ago

Kyle Busch Confronts Christopher Bell Following A Top-10 Finish At COTA
Justin Haley3 days ago

Disqualified After Strong COTA Run
Martin Truex Jr3 days ago

. Rounds Out Top Ten At COTA
NASCAR3 days ago

A.J. Allmendinger Worms Way Up To Sixth At COTA
Shane Van Gisbergen3 days ago

Shane van Gisbergen Comes Down to Earth After Mediocre COTA Run
Ross Chastain3 days ago

Ran Well at COTA as Usual Despite Late-Race Fade
Christopher Bell3 days ago

Furious Charge Falls Just Short at COTA
Tyler Reddick3 days ago

Scores Strong Finish of Fifth at COTA
Chase Elliott3 days ago

Finishes 16th at COTA After Lackluster Performance
Billy Quarantillo4 days ago

Suffers Submission Loss At UFC Vegas 89
Youssef Zalal4 days ago

Gets Submission Win In Return To The UFC
Cameron Saaiman4 days ago

Gets Knocked Out At UFC Vegas 89
Payton Talbott4 days ago

Scores KO Win At UFC Vegas 89
Justin Tafa4 days ago

Drops To .500 In The UFC
Karl Williams4 days ago

Remains Undefeated In The UFC
Kyle Larson4 days ago

Is One Of The Optimal DFS Options For COTA
Denny Hamlin4 days ago

Should Denny Hamlin Be Rostered For DFS Lineups At COTA?
Kaz Grala4 days ago

Is A Serviceable DFS Play For COTA
Shane Van Gisbergen4 days ago

Will Start 12th In First COTA Cup Start
Todd Gilliland4 days ago

Is A Sneaky DFS Play With Upside For COTA
William Byron4 days ago

Is One Of The Top Favorites To Win At COTA
Christopher Bell4 days ago

Is A Comfortable DFS Play For COTA
Tyler Reddick4 days ago

the Favorite to Win at COTA
Ty Gibbs4 days ago

Looking for First Career Win at COTA
Rose Namajunas6 days ago

Looks To Get Back In Win Column
Amanda Ribas6 days ago

Set For Main-Event Matchup
Edmen Shahbazyan6 days ago

In Dire Need Of Victory
AJ Dobson6 days ago

An Underdog At UFC Vegas 89
Fernando Padilla6 days ago

Seeking Victory In Third UFC Appearance
Luis Pajuelo6 days ago

Makes His UFC Debut
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF