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Mike looks at three sneaky fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups for starting pitchers in Week 8 (2024) who are off to hot starts and sees if they can sustain their success.
We have finally had some important fantasy baseball pitchers return from injury, including Justin Steele and Kyle Bradish. While they do provide some reinforcements, there are still plenty of big names that we likely won’t hear from anytime soon.
With many fantasy managers still searching for replacements, there are some unexpected players who have stepped up to become fantasy-relevant. They include Clarke Schmidt, Dean Kremer, and Kyle Gibson.
Let’s dig into the stats for these three starters and discuss if they can sustain their early-season success.
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Kyle Gibson, St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals brought in Gibson during the offseason to be a reliable veteran who can eat innings. He has thrown at least 160 innings in each of the last five full seasons. However, his overall numbers haven’t been much help to fantasy managers. In four of those seasons, he had an ERA of at least 4.73. For his career, his WHIP is a pedestrian 1.37. To complicate matters, Gibson only has a career 18.7 percent strikeout rate.
Gibson has started off his tenure with the Cardinals on a high note, registering a 3.67 ERA over his first eight starts. However, his FIP is just 4.45. He has been lucky to record a .248 BABIP allowed, given that he has allowed an 11.5 percent barrel rate. He also continues to underwhelm with a 19.9 percent strikeout rate.
Kyle Gibson, K'ing the Side. pic.twitter.com/jR2WMShwGo
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 12, 2024
At this point in his career, you get what you get with Gibson. He is going to battle and give the Cardinals innings. However, those aren’t innings that managers will likely want from him in fantasy. He doesn’t strike out enough hitters, and his current 3.67 ERA is likely to rise significantly as the season moves along.
Dean Kremer, Baltimore Orioles
After finishing with a 3.23 ERA and a 3.80 FIP in 2022, Kremer took a step back last season with a 4.12 ERA and a 4.51 FIP over 32 starts. One reason for his regression was that he allowed 1.4 HR/9. The season prior, he gave up 0.8 HR/9.
Kremer has begun this season with a 3.72 ERA, but there is a lot to be worried about with his supporting stats. First, his FIP is much worse at 4.62. Second, he has continued to have problems keeping hitters inside the ballpark, allowing 1.8 HR/9.
If Kremer isn’t helping with ratios, he’s not doing much for fantasy managers. For his career, he has just a 20.4 percent strikeout rate. That mark is better this season at 25.3 percent, but he has been inconsistent in that department. While he has two games with at least 10 strikeouts, he also struck out four or fewer batters in three of his outings. Kremer is a viable streaming option when matchups work in his favor, but expect his ERA to wind up over 4.00 when the season is all said and done.
Clarke Schmidt, New York Yankees
After pitching mostly out of the bullpen in 2022, Schmidt started 32 of his 33 appearances for the Yankees last year. He logged 159 innings, which was by far the most in a season for him in his career. His overall numbers weren’t great, though, given his 4.64 ERA and 4.42 FIP.
Now accustomed to being a regular starter in the majors, Schmidt has shown significant improvement through his first eight starts this year. His 2.95 ERA likely isn’t sustainable, but his FIP is better than last season at 3.80. His biggest improvement has come in the strikeout department. He has followed up his 21.5 percent strikeout rate last year with a 27.0 percent strikeout rate this season.
Clarke Schmidt has his best start of the season! 🔥
6.2 IP | 5 H | 0 ER | 2 BB | 6 SO pic.twitter.com/St9amOLCwP
— Fireside Yankees (@FiresideYankees) May 11, 2024
A difference for Schmidt this season has been using his cutter more. That’s important, given that he has a 30.0 percent whiff rate on the pitch. Last season, only his knuckle curve had a whiff rate of at least 30.0 percent. This season, his cutter, sweeper, and knuckle curve all have a whiff rate of at least that high.
Schmidt isn’t flashy, but he hasn’t given up more than three runs in a start this season, and he has recorded at least five strikeouts in all but one outing. He’s someone who is worth rostering in most leagues for the remainder of the season.
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