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Mike looks at three sneaky fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups for starting pitchers in Week 12 (2024) who are off to hot starts and sees if they can sustain their success.
We are still without plenty of prominent starting pitchers because of injuries. Outside of pulling off a trade, fantasy managers will need to continue to navigate the waiver wire for reinforcements.
Streaming pitchers with favorable matchups is a good way to help offset injuries to your fantasy squad. Are Reese Olson, Chris Paddack, and Simeon Woods Richardson just viable streaming options, or could any of them be worth rostering for the long haul?
Let’s dig into the stats for these three starters and discuss if they can sustain their current level of success.
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Reese Olson, Detroit Tigers
Olson has posted two straight rough starts. After giving up five runs over 5.1 innings to the Red Sox, he allowed eight runs over four innings in his last outing against the Brewers. He issued just one walk and did not give up a home run in that game, but the Brewers racked up a whopping 12 hits against him.
Even with Olson getting hammered in his last two starts, he has allowed just 58 hits and three home runs across 65.2 innings. His ERA checks in at 3.43, while his FIP is even better at 3.07. After allowing a 10.5 percent barrel rate last season, he has lowered it to 5.2 percent this year.
Reese Olson's 3Ks in the 1st. pic.twitter.com/Qh7OqIg207
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 7, 2024
With Olson struggling lately, he was dropped in some leagues. That has left him being available in 63 percent of Yahoo leagues. Don’t let a couple of bad starts drown out how well he has pitched for the bulk of this season. Even last year, he posted a 3.99 ERA and a 4.01 FIP in his first season in the majors. Olson is worth adding in most leagues and should be viewed as more than just a viable streaming option.
Chris Paddack, Minnesota Twins
The last time Paddack logged at least 100 innings in a season came back in 2021, when he was still with the Padres. He finished with a 5.07 ERA that year, but his FIP was 3.78. One of his strengths throughout his career has been his command. He has a 4.5 percent walk rate this season and a 4.8 percent walk rate for his career.
Paddack has a 4.79 ERA over 13 starts this year, but again, his FIP is much better at 3.90. Giving up 11 home runs and 84 hits over 71.1 innings hasn’t helped his cause. He’s not missing a ton of bats, registering a 21.7 percent strikeout rate.
Chris Paddack, 80mph Hammer. ⚒️ pic.twitter.com/tFunTNYgzM
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 10, 2024
Most of the damage done against Paddack has come in three starts this season. In one outing against the Orioles, he allowed nine runs. In two starts against the Yankees, he allowed a combined 12 runs. They have two of the best lineups in baseball. However, he has allowed two or fewer runs in eight of his 13 starts overall. That means that when the matchups work in his favor, Paddack is a viable streaming option.
Simeon Woods Richardson, Minnesota Twins
Woods Richardson spent most of last year at Triple-A, posting a 4.91 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP over 113.2 innings. He was wild, issuing 61 total walks. Still, with the Twins short in viable starting options, Woods Richardson has taken the mound for them 10 times this season. He has thrived in the role, posting a 2.84 ERA and a 3.54 FIP.
The downside with Woods Richardson is that he doesn’t miss a ton of bats. Over his 113.2 innings at Triple-A in 2023, he had just 96 strikeouts. This year, he has a 20.3 percent strikeout rate for the Twins. That lack of swing-and-miss stuff doesn’t leave him with much of a margin for error.
Another thing to factor in with Woods Richardson is that seven of his 10 starts have come against teams ranked inside the bottom half of baseball in runs scored. He has shown that he can exploit favorable matchups, but with his lack of strikeout upside, fantasy managers need to be selective with when they stream him.
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