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Mike looks at three sneaky fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups for starting pitchers in Week 11 (2024) who are off to hot starts and sees if they can sustain their success.
Injuries continue to pile up in starting rotations across baseball. Among the more recent names to land on the injured list are Joe Musgrove (elbow), Yu Darvish (groin), and Blake Snell (groin).
Streaming pitchers with favorable matchups is a good way to help offset injuries to your fantasy squad. Are Luis Severino, Matt Waldron, and Jake Irvin just viable streaming options, or could any of them be worth rostering for the long haul?
Let’s dig into the stats for these three starters and discuss if they can sustain their current level of success.
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Luis Severino, New York Mets
Severino’s tenure with the Yankees came to a disastrous end last season. He was limited to just 89.1 innings because of injuries again. When he was on the mound, he didn’t pitch well, finishing with a 6.65 ERA and a 6.14 FIP. Injuries have been a problem for him since the 2019 season, but he has usually pitched well when healthy. For his career, he has a 3.76 ERA and a 3.74 FIP.
Severino has been able to stay healthy since signing with the Mets, logging 64 innings across his 11 starts. He has looked more like his old self, recording a 3.52 ERA and a 3.92 FIP. One of the reasons for Severino’s downfall last year was that he gave up 2.3 HR/9. This season, he has allowed just 0.7 HR/9.
Luis Severino has allowed just one baserunner through 5 IP at Citi Field. 👀 pic.twitter.com/lKE5E4zU5p
— MLB (@MLB) May 25, 2024
Given that Severino has allowed 1.2 HR/9 for his career, his struggles in that department last year were likely an aberration. Injuries are always a concern, but he’s healthy right now, making him a viable fantasy option. He might not be the sneakiest of adds, but he is still available in 56 percent of Yahoo leagues.
Matt Waldron, San Diego Padres
Waldron held the Angels in check Monday, allowing just two hits and one run over 6.1 innings. That marked the fifth straight start in which he has allowed two or fewer runs. During that stretch, he recorded 35 strikeouts and posted a 0.92 WHIP across 29.1 innings.
Waldron’s recent hot streak has lowered his ERA to 3.98 for the season. His FIP is even better at 3.29. The key to his success has been a knuckleball that he has thrown 37 percent of the time this season. He has a 29.7 percent whiff rate on that pitch. Among his four other pitches, none of them have a whiff rate higher than 21.4 percent.
Matt Waldron's Knuckleball doesn't look real. pic.twitter.com/u0Uer3T1LZ
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 4, 2024
Having a knuckleball among his arsenal makes Waldron a unique pitcher in today’s game. While he doesn’t throw overly hard, his average fastball velocity of 91.3 mph this season is a good combination with his knuckleball. Waldron has become more than just a viable streaming option. He is still available in 69 percent of Yahoo leagues, so there is still time to add him.
Jake Irvin, Washington Nationals
The Nationals don’t have a lot of big names in their starting rotation. MacKenzie Gore is their most promising starter and had plenty of spotlight on him during his climb through the minors. Patrick Corbin used to be a viable fantasy option, but he has been a punching bag for the majority of his tenure with the team.
One of the names that tends to fly under the radar in their rotation is Irvin, who was selected in the fourth round of the 2018 MLB Draft. He only reached Triple-A last year and then was then quickly moved up to the majors. Over 24 starts with the Nationals, he produced a 4.61 ERA and a 5.30 FIP.
Irvin looks more comfortable in the majors this year, posting a 3.39 ERA and a 3.18 FIP over 12 starts. One of the biggest differences for him has been improved command. His 10.2 percent walk rate last year contributed to his 1.42 WHIP. This season, his 4.4 percent walk rate has helped him produce a 1.03 WHIP.
As encouraging as the results have been for Irvin, he still has just a 21.8 percent strikeout rate. He has also allowed a 9.5 percent barrel rate. He’s a viable streaming option, but be weary of starting him when a matchup doesn’t work in his favor.
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