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Kev analyzes NFL snap counts and usage from Week 6 to find fantasy football risers and fallers for Week 8 and beyond. These RBs, WRs and TEs could be sleepers or busts moving forward.
Snap counts are not the be-all-end-all for fantasy production but they paint a clear picture with the necessary context. Every snap is an opportunity for a player to make his presence felt and if their snaps go up or down, you get an idea of what the team thinks of their skill set. A running back can have all the rushing talent in the world, but if he can't catch the ball or is useless in pass protection, their snaps will not reflect that talent.
We do not have much of a sample for rising or falling snaps but for the sake of trying to identify worthwhile trends early, that's the basis we will use. Snap% listed reflects a player's usage in Week 7 contests.
If you have any questions, feel free to follow me on Twitter @RotoSurgeon and ask away.
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Rising Snap Counts for Fantasy Football
Mike Gesicki, TE, MIA (82% snaps)
Mike Gesicki has stepped into an expanded role for Miami and has dominated. His 82% snap share in Week 7 was the highest of the season, and he produced another dominant receiving line of seven catches (on eight targets), 85 yards, and a touchdown. He initially began playing this much due to the absence of DeVante Parker and Will Fuller, but he may carry on a massive role into the rest of the year even if they remain healthy.
Gesicki is a player that Miami will be hard-pressed to remove from the field despite his deficiencies as a blocker -- and for the sake of fantasy, he not only must be started at TE, but can be FLEX-ed if need be.
Michael Carter, RB, NYJ (72% snaps)
Jets' fourth-round rookie RB Michael Carter finally played a "workhorse" role in the offense and paid off any managers who reluctantly slotted him into their lineups. Carter's start to the season has been wholly disappointing as his lack of juice is apparent -- but to his credit, the pass-catching chops are real. He displayed them in Week 7 seeing nine targets and catching eight for 67 yards.
Unfortunately, fellow RB Ty Johnson also plays a role as a Jets' receiving back and has more speed but less investment. The team may opt to "develop" Carter in spite of Johnson's talent, but that wholly depends on how the next few games go with Mike White and Joe Flacco at the helm. Carter is a tough sell as a fantasy starter, but should be added off waiver if available and held on rosters until a week or two post-BYE.
Royce Freeman, RB, CAR (45% snaps)
My Royce Freeman > Chuba Hubbard take is one that almost banished me from the internet, but I will hold it for one more week. Although Week 7 for Carolina was a blowout, Freeman's involvement post-Rodney Smith is encouraging. There is still no word on how long Christian McCaffrey will remain out, and in that time the lead RB role for this offense seems up for grabs.
Chuba Hubbard has been nothing short of mediocre since taking on the lead role. He is averaging just 3.7 yards per carry on the season, and 4.6 yards per target. Not that Freeman is performing better on his touches, but at the very least he does deserves a shot to see more than his season-high of six. If someone on your roster hits IR soon and a bench spot opens up, why not pick up Freeman who could offer something if the touches matriculate his way.
Falling Snap Counts for Fantasy Football
Sam Darnold, QB, CAR (70% snaps)
It is never a good sign when the quarterback gets benched. Especially a quarterback whose 5th-year option of nearly $20 million was picked up prior to the season's start. Darnold has looked atrocious these past four weeks without McCaffrey. While that is somewhat of an excuse, the rest of the blame is on his shoulders since a franchise QB should be capable of performing even when a premier player is out.
Darnold is not going to lose his job right now according to Head Coach Matt Rhule, but the fact that they played P.J. Walker over him for more than one drive should speak volumes. Darnold can be dropped despite his early-season burst, and is likely a lost cause for fantasy even if his real-life performance brightens up.
Julio Jones, WR, TEN (43% snaps)
I am not worried about Julio Jones. Do not drop him despite the snap dip and recent lack of production.
Nyheim Hines, RB, IND (28% snaps)
Nyheim Hines has been completely pushed aside by the mecha-RB known as Jonathan Taylor. Hines is a capable scat-back who can break a nice run occasionally -- but he is far from the generational talent presented in the form of Taylor, and is now coming off his second straight week with below 30% of the team's snaps. Yes, if/when Marlon Mack is traded Hines should see a tad more work -- but Mack only played 6% of the snaps in Week 7.
Hines has somewhat of a role on 3rd downs -- but given that Taylor is now utilized on designed pass plays to manufacture touches across the field, it is essentially over for Hines who can be dropped outside of deeper fantasy leagues.
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