Sleeper.com NFL DFS Prop Picks - Over/Under Props for Week 7 Late Slate

October 21, 2023

Sleeper NFL DFS prop picks for Week 7 Late Slate (October 22, 2023). Use Dan's NFL over/under props recommendations to win money on Sleeper.

Welcome to our Sleeper NFL DFS prop picks for Week 7 Sunday Late Slate. Last week’s picks for this slate finished 3-3, bringing our season record to 10-8.

Sleeper offers some of the best and easiest-to-win NFL DFS games in the industry. Sleeper DFS works just like regular player prop betting - there are no large-field tournaments to get lost in. You're not playing against other people; you're just playing against the projections. Here are a few of our favorite prop picks for the Sunday late slate on Sleeper DFS.

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NFL DFS Props - Over/Under Picks for Week 7 Sunday Late Slate

Marquez Valdes-Scantling OVER 13.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards

Valdes-Scantling has struggled to perform of late, only mustering 55 receiving yards on three catches in his last four games. His recent slump has sportsbooks underrating him this week. The Chiefs will hope MVS can soon return to his 2022 form when he averaged 4.8 targets and 40.4 receiving yards per game. He has averaged 2.1 receptions and 36 yards per game for his career, meaning he is due for some positive regression.

PFF projects a 72% likelihood of this prop hitting while Rotoballer's Proptimizer tool gives his straight receiving over a 25.8% edge, with a Sharp App projected line of 23.8 receiving yards. The line has moved down to 13.5 yards on Sleeper since opening, offering even more value. Select the straight receiving line for a slight odds boost, or go with the combined rushing and receiving line for a slightly higher probability with a 0.1 point lower Sleeper multiplier.

Jayden Reed OVER 25.5 Receiving Yards

Reed has impressed so far in his rookie season for Green Bay, averaging 2.6 catches for 42 receiving yards per game to go along with two receiving touchdowns in his first six games as a Packer. The 23-year-old has five or more targets and 37 or more receiving yards in every game but one this season.

Reed and the Packers travel to Denver on Sunday, the seventh-easiest matchup for receivers this week according to PFF. With the rookie's 16.2 yards per reception rate so far this year he will only need about two catches for his receiving yardage prop to hit. Sportsbooks seem to be skeptical of Reed despite the fast start and as a result, Reed’s prop is still too low in Week 7.

Matthew Stafford OVER 1.5 Rushing Yards

We are doubling down on this prop after narrowly missing it last week. The logic remains sound - Stafford has hit two or more rushing yards in five of six games, and with his top two running backs on the shelf this week he is likely to command even more dropbacks than usual. 

The Proptimizer identifies a 40.5% edge on Stafford hitting over 1.5 rushing yards this week based on a Sharp App projected line of 6.7 rushing yards. This prop has the highest Proptimizer edge for the entire Week 7 slate.

Be sure to also check out our brand new PrizePicks Optimizer tool and the free PrizePicks DFS Props Tool to see more recommended picks.

Other Recommendations:

• Keaontay Ingram UNDER 35.5 rushing yards
• Kenneth Walker OVER 0.5 touchdown
• Noah Fant UNDER 2.5 receptions

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