Sleeper.com NFL DFS Prop Picks - Over/Under Props for Week 4 Late Slate

September 30, 2023

Sleeper NFL DFS prop picks for Week 4 Late Slate (October 1, 2023). Use Dan's NFL over/under props recommendations to win money on Sleeper.

Welcome to our Sleeper NFL DFS prop picks for Week 4 Sunday Late Slate. As the fourth week of the NFL season continues, our friends over at Sleeper have a TON of great props we can look to take advantage of.

Sleeper offers some of the best and easiest-to-win NFL DFS games in the industry. Sleeper DFS works just like regular player prop betting - there are no large-field tournaments to get lost in. You're not playing against other people; you're just playing against the projections. Here are a few of our favorite prop picks for the Sunday late slate on Sleeper DFS.

Announcement: We have two awesome new Props Optimizers for the NFL, MLB, NBA, NHL, and NCAA! The PrizePicks Optimizer and Prop Bets Optimizer are both available in our new Props Premium Package, which includes exclusive access to RotoBaller's VIP Discord chat rooms for props and betting.

NFL DFS Props - Over/Under Picks for Week 4 Sunday Late Slate

Mac Jones OVER 213.5 Passing Yards

Mac Jones is averaging 249 passing yards per game so far in 2023, including overcoming a difficult 201 passing-yard performance against the Jets in a win last week. While this already clears his 213.5 passing yard prop on Sleeper by 35.5 yards, the 25-year-old is also underperforming according to PFF’s expected points analytics, averaging 304 expected passing yards per game.

Jones and the Patriots travel to Dallas on Sunday afternoon as 6.5-point underdogs. New England is likely to be playing from behind, meaning more passing volume for their offense - Jones is averaging 48 attempts per game and 5.7 yards per attempt in the team’s two losses this season. 

The RotoBaller Proptimizer tool shows props for each game on the slate and the relative edge they bring based on projections. The Proptimizer outlines a 26.4% edge on the over for Mac Jones' passing yardage this week, the second-highest edge for a prop in this matchup based on a Sharp App projected line of 241.9 passing yards.

Kendrick Bourne OVER 31.5 Receiving Yards

Bourne has gone over the 31.5 receiving yards mark twice in three games this season, narrowly missing in Week 2 with 29 receiving yards. He leads Patriots receivers in all major categories after three games, including tallying 8.3 targets per game and a 20% target share. 

The Cowboys, New England’s opponent on Sunday, have been the most man-heavy defense in the NFL to this point. Bourne has been New England’s top wide receiver against man coverage this season, earning a team-leading 71.7 PFF receiving grade. Despite the tough matchup, a pass-heavy game script means Bourne should see plenty of action through the air this weekend.

Rotoballer's Proptimizer tool gives this prop a 21.1% edge as the Sharp App projected line sits at 47.1 receiving yards.

Keenan Allen OVER 7.5 Receptions

Allen has topped this mark in his last two games, including an 18-catch powerhouse game in Week 3 against the Vikings. Allen and the Chargers welcome the Raiders on Sunday, the 12th-easiest for receivers according to PFF’s Strength of Schedule metric.

The 31-year-old has excelled against all coverages so far this year but he especially stands out against man, maintaining a 36% target share for the Chargers against that coverage according to PFF. The Raiders are expected to deploy a heavy amount of man coverage on Sunday, having played man at a top-10 rate so far this season. With Mike Williams out for the remainder of the year, expect the eight-plus catch workload for Allen to continue this week.

Be sure to also check out our brand new PrizePicks Optimizer tool and the free PrizePicks DFS Props Tool to see more recommended picks.

Other Recommendations:

• Justin Herbert OVER 2.5 rushing attempts
• DeVante Parker UNDER 2.5 receptions
• Jake Ferguson UNDER 31 receiving yards

Play the NFL DFS Picks Now on Sleeper

More Weekly DFS Analysis