Week 12 NFL DFS Prop Picks for MNF - Over/Under Prop Picks on Sleeper.com

November 26, 2023

Sleeper NFL DFS prop picks for Week 12 Monday Night Football (November 27, 2023). Use Dan's NFL over/under props recommendations to win money on Sleeper.

Welcome to our Sleeper NFL DFS prop picks for Week 12 Monday Night Football: Bears vs. Vikings. Last week’s MNF picks finished 1-2, bringing our season record to 15-8.

Sleeper offers some of the best and easiest-to-win NFL DFS games in the industry. Sleeper DFS works just like regular player prop betting -- there are no large-field tournaments to get lost in. You're not playing against other people; you're just playing against the projections. Here are a few of our favorite prop picks for MNF on Sleeper DFS.

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NFL DFS Props - Over/Under Picks for Week 12 Monday Night Football

Joshua Dobbs UNDER 37.5 Rushing Yards

One of the top feel-good stories of the NFL season continues on Monday night as Joshua Dobbs makes his fourth start for the Vikings against the Bears. Despite being second among QBs in rushing yards on the year, this is a week to fade Dobbs’ rushing prop. 

Chicago has allowed an average of 10 QB rushing yards per game this season and has yet to allow more than 28 rushing yards to a quarterback all year. Dobbs’ streak of five straight games with a rushing touchdown is also in jeopardy, with Chicago yet to allow a QB rushing touchdown this season.

PFF projects a 75% likelihood of this prop going under. With Justin Jefferson potentially returning for the Vikings, expect them to lean on the passing game this week more than they have recently.

Brandon Powell OVER 23.5 Receiving Yards

Fifth-year receivers aren’t often considered journeymen so early in their careers, but the label is accurate for WR Brandon Powell, who is playing for his fourth team in five years. Powell is catching on with the Vikings and new QB Joshua Dobbs, however. He has already surpassed his career high for receiving yards in a season this year, including two straight 32+ yards receiving weeks.

Powell has carved out a role in this offense that is unlikely to vanish even if WR Justin Jefferson makes his return on Monday night. The fifth-year receiver has played 63% of his snaps in the slot, meaning his volume is not in jeopardy even if Jefferson plays.

RotoBaller’s Proptimizer projects a 17.6% edge on this prop hitting the over, based on a Sharp App projected line of 29 receiving yards.

Darnell Mooney UNDER 2.5 Receptions

Mooney has underperformed for the Bears over the last two seasons after his first 1,000-yard receiving season in 2021 heightened expectations. This year, he has only scratched the top 24 at the position twice, and he enters Week 12 as the WR71 in PPR scoring.

Despite his value being in the gutter, Mooney’s receiving prop is still too high this week. He has reached three or more receptions only twice in his last seven games. The Vikings are middle-of-the-pack as the 16th-best matchup for receivers this week, according to PFF’s Strength of Schedule metric. 

This is also a matchup that doesn’t favor Mooney’s strengths. The Vikings play zone coverage at a top-10 rate. Mooney has a 10% target rate against zone coverage this season, compared to 13% against man. Consider fading Mooney this week.

Be sure to also check out our brand new PrizePicks Optimizer tool and the free PrizePicks DFS Props Tool to see more recommended picks.

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