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Welcome to our Sleeper NFL DFS prop picks for Week 11 Sunday Late Slate. Last week’s picks for this slate finished 2-4, bringing our season record to 24-18. Let’s pick some winners.
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NFL DFS Props - Over/Under Picks for Week 11 Sunday Late Slate
Geno Smith OVER 21.5 Completions
Geno Smith ranks 15th among QBs in completions per game this season with 21.8, which is right in line with his over/under of 21.5 in Week 11. His trendline and matchup make this prop interesting, however -- Smith has hit 22+ completions in three of his last five and faces off against a Rams defense that is the number-one matchup for opposing quarterbacks this week, according to PFF.
Smith has three games where he has totaled 27 or more completions in 2023, with all three coming in close games that have finished with a spread of six points or less. His matchup this week has Seattle favored by just one point, with a 46-point over/under. Expect a higher passing volume from both teams in this game and consider betting accordingly.
Brock Purdy UNDER 258.5 Passing Yards
Despite passing for more than 258 yards in three of his last five games, several factors are working against Brock Purdy’s ability to do that again this week. He faces off with the Buccaneers in Week 11, the NFL’s 11th-best defense, according to DVOA. Purdy has played against the Bucs once in his career, totaling 185 passing yards in a mid-December win for the 49ers last year.
San Francisco is also a run-first team, particularly when they are at their best. This has led to a 31st-ranked passing play percentage (49.6%). At home, their passing percentage drops to 47.2%. Both of these teams also rank in the bottom 10 in offensive plays per game, meaning a faster game and fewer opportunities for Purdy to rack up passing yards.
Rotoballer’s Proptimizer projects a 35.2% edge on this prop hitting the under, based on a Sharp App projected line of 221.6 passing yards.
Jason Myers OVER 6.5 Kicking Points
Myers has had a dependable leg for the Seahawks this season, including making his last 12 field goals. He has hit seven or more kicking points in six of nine games, including two games of 17 points.
The Seahawks' matchup with the Rams this week boasts a 46-point over/under with an implied total for Seattle of 23.5, according to DraftKings Sportsbook. The Seahawks attempt the third-most field goals per game while the Rams give up the fifth-most field goal attempts per game. Seattle also tends to sputter in the red zone, as evidenced by their eighth-worst red zone touchdown scoring rate so far this season (48.5%).
Look for Myers to hit his over at SoFi Stadium on Sunday in what is projected to be a close divisional game.
Be sure to also check out our brand new PrizePicks Optimizer tool and the free PrizePicks DFS Props Tool to see more recommended picks.
Other Recommendations:
- Rachaad White OVER 44.5 rushing yards
- Gabe Davis UNDER 36.5 receiving yards
- Tyler Conklin OVER 2.5 receptions
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