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Stefon Diggs or A.J. Brown - who should I draft for 2023 fantasy football drafts? Brandon analyzes NFL players with similar values, and tells you who to pick.
Welcome RotoBallers to our ADP duel comparing Stefon Diggs vs. A.J. Brown for 2023 fantasy football drafts. Fantasy football has become a cultural phenomenon, captivating sports enthusiasts and casual fans alike with its unique blend of strategy and competition. As the popularity continues to soar, the tools and metrics used to gain a competitive edge have evolved.
One metric that holds immense value for fantasy football players is the Average Draft Position (ADP). ADP serves as a critical guide in draft preparation, helping managers navigate the player selection process and build a winning roster.
In this article, we will delve into the intricacies of ADP between two similarly valued players and how you can effectively attack the best player to construct a championship-caliber fantasy team.
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Breakdown Of ADP
Average Draft Position, commonly referred to as ADP, represents the average position at which a player is drafted in fantasy football leagues. ADP is typically derived from data collected from various mock drafts and real drafts conducted by fantasy football enthusiasts. This powerful metric serves as a benchmark, indicating the perceived value and popularity of players within the fantasy football community.
Understanding ADP is essential for fantasy managers, as it provides crucial insights into player rankings and draft trends and helps determine the optimal time to select specific players. By incorporating ADP into their draft strategy, managers can effectively gauge player availability, identify potential steals, and avoid reaching for players too early in the draft.
ADP acts as a compass, guiding fantasy managers through the unpredictable terrain of the draft. It offers an overview of player rankings, allowing managers to gauge which players are typically selected in the early rounds and which may fall to later rounds.
This knowledge can help managers identify "value picks," where players with a higher ADP can be secured at a lower draft position. Additionally, analyzing ADP trends over time can provide valuable insights into player fluctuations and market sentiment, helping managers stay ahead of the competition. By incorporating ADP data into their draft strategy, managers can make well-informed decisions, ensuring they assemble a well-balanced team capable of maximizing points and securing victory.
Draft strategy is a fundamental aspect of fantasy football success, and ADP plays a pivotal role in its development. Armed with the knowledge of ADP, managers can adopt different strategies based on the unique characteristics of their league. For example, "Zero RB" and "Late-Round QB" strategies capitalize on ADP data to determine when to prioritize running backs and quarterbacks, respectively.
Conversely, understanding ADP can help managers identify the optimal time to select high-value wide receivers or tight ends. By blending their draft strategy with ADP insights, managers can create a well-rounded roster that maximizes value and minimizes risk, setting themselves up for success throughout the fantasy football season.
Average Draft Position (ADP) serves as a vital tool in the arsenal of fantasy football managers. By comprehending the definition, importance, and strategic utilization of ADP, managers can make informed decisions during the draft, ultimately constructing a championship-caliber team. With ADP as their guide, fantasy managers can navigate the intricacies of the draft process, identify value picks, and adapt their strategy to gain a competitive edge. Let's break down the ADPs of WRs Stefon Diggs and A.J. Brown and see who the better pick for your fantasy football team may be.
Stefon Diggs, Buffalo Bills
WR5 - ADP: 8th Overall
Stefon Diggs has been the subject of many discussions around the league throughout the offseason with his cryptic social media posts and presumed unhappiness with the success of the Buffalo Bills. All that aside, he remains one of the more consistent wide receivers in fantasy football.
In what some considered to be a down season, he accumulated 155 targets (WR5), 110 receptions (WR3), 1,455 yards (WR5), and 11 total touchdowns (WR2). All this together placed him at WR6 on the year with 18.9 FPPG.
Looking at those numbers, he was hyper-efficient with his production as he was just WR20 in routes run (507) and WR33 in route participation (87.4%). He also increased his target share from 2021 (26.4% - WR13) to 28.4% (WR10). Sure, his targets have slightly decreased in each of the last two seasons, but he remains one of the more prolific receivers for fantasy managers to roster.
I understand his frustrations in wanting to advance to and perhaps win a Super Bowl, but many people have been blowing this offseason out of proportion. Has the team made season-altering moves to keep them from being one of the favorites to come out of the AFC? No, not at all. If anything, they have maintained consistency in order to keep things running smoothly.
The addition of Dalton Kincaid in the NFL Draft could only help matters for Diggs from a defensive perspective. It was apparent in 2022 that the offense needed another weapon to draw attention away from Diggs as Gabe Davis struggled with health and consistency. Now, with another potential weapon for Josh Allen to utilize, Diggs should maintain his strong target share while exploiting more single coverage from defenses.
A.J. Brown, Philadelphia Eagles
WR6 - ADP: 9th Overall
Often, we refer to a player needing a change of scenery in order for a career resurgence. A.J. Brown was the prime example of this after his trade from Tennessee to the Philadelphia Eagles. It was clear that he had lost interest in playing for the run-heavy scheme with the Titans.
Instead, he found himself with a quarterback he wanted to play with in Jalen Hurts in a newly flourishing offense in Philadelphia. In just his first year, he posted career highs across the board in targets (146), receptions (88), yards (1,496), and touchdowns (11). He also posted top 10 numbers at the position in target share (29.0%) and yards per route run (3.01 - WR2) on his way to a WR8 finish with 17.6 FPPG.
Something else that played a large part in Brown's success last year is that he stayed on the field for the full 17-game schedule. Missing seven games over the final two years with the Titans, he became a receiver that was frustrating to manage due to time on and off the field.
As another season approaches, Brown is obviously a player who is widely coveted by fantasy managers due in large part to his role in an up-tempo offense. As long as he continues to stay healthy, he should maintain a high level of value for fantasy managers.
But something to keep in mind is the emergence of DeVonta Smith down the stretch in 2022. Over the team's last 10 games, Smith outproduced Brown at almost every turn besides touchdowns, where Brown held the advantage by one score. Will this continue to be a sore spot for fantasy managers in 2023?
Fantasy Football Verdict
With these two players going virtually back-to-back in drafts and also in the first round (according to current ADP), this decision could make or break outcomes for fantasy managers during the season. Both are exceptional talents that are the top receiving options in high-scoring offenses.
But which player has the edge and is the name that you select when it's your turn to pick? For me, I will be going with Stefon Diggs. As I pointed out in this article, the consistency is always there. His targets should not be altered and he should also keep his streak going of seasons scoring double-digit touchdowns. I do like A.J. Brown quite a bit, but with my concerns about how much DeVonta Smith can cut into his production, I currently have Brown outside of the first round in drafts.
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