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Antonio Losada takes a look at the 2021 NFL running back group and highlights potential busts based on elusiveness rating so you can avoid these RBs in fantasy football drafts.
A lot of elements go into making a running back desirable for fantasy football. Opportunity, a good offensive line, and a good offense are all key elements. However, something equally important is how elusive those running backs are, this includes breaking tackles and gaining yards after contact.
Often, players who have these traits fall into the category of the best rushers in the league. Unfortunately, sometimes elusive running backs do not have a great opportunity, a good offensive line, or a good offense, leading to them being pushed down draft boards. If those running backs can get the opportunity, then their ability to be elusive can be enough to make them fantasy-relevant despite their offense or offensive line.
Today, I'm looking at running backs' elusive rating from the 2020 season using PFF's Elusive Rating formula [Forced Missed Tackles) / (Carries + Receptions) * (Yards After Contact per Attempt * 100], trying to highlight four potential busts from 2021 fantasy football drafts given their 2020 numbers.
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2021 Elusive Rating Busts
D'Andre Swift, Detroit Lions
After the Lions made Swift their second-round pick of the 2020 draft, everything pointed toward a heavy workload for the rookie running back. That wasn't entirely the case, though, and although Swift closed the season outperforming his ADP of 86 (he ranked as the 73rd-best fantasy player in PPR leagues), he still fell a bit short of what he could have done in a much more open backfield--blame Adrian Peterson, I guess...
This truly feels like Swift's real breakout year... or not. Detroit parted ways with Adrian Peterson and Kerryon Johnson, which combined for a healthy 252 opportunities in 2020. But, Detroit went hunting and landed former-Packer Jamaal Williams to take on the RB2 role behind Swift. Again, odds are Swift ends up getting the bulkier share of the opportunities in this backfield, but that's yet to be seen.
When it comes to elusiveness, Swift wasn't otherworldly; all of the opposite, in fact. Swift's ELU mark of 9.6 (which considers both rushing and passing plays) ranked 41st among the 78 RBs with 100+ snaps in 2020. That puts Swift in the 40th percentile at it, which is nothing good. Even worse was Swift's Juke Rate (17th percentile) and 1.5 Evaded Tackles/Game (35th). The Lions had to endure some of the worst game scripts in the whole league and that won't change this season, which gives me pause when considering Swift's sky-high second-round ADP.
Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys
Let's make something clear: Zeke is a true stud, full stop. I'm not here to tell you that you shouldn't draft him in the first round, much less in the second if he even makes it that far. He's a league winner, that is what he is. Now, let's take a look at the data so I can make a proper case on how he found a way to land here.
First of all, we have to see what the Dallas Cowboys are with Dak Prescott available (let's hope) for the full season. Elliot was fantastic with him last year (23.1 FPPG) but suffered a lot without him (11.8). He didn't skip a snap in any of those splits, racking up the most (759) on the year, yet his targets were impacted the most, falling 2.5+ playing under Andy Dalton.
While Elliott was great after contact (521 YAC to 458 YBC), the truth is that he "only" broke 15 tackles over 15 games, or once every 16.3 rushing attempts. He evaded 69 total tackles, but his ELU of 10.6 was slightly below average. Is all of that bad? No. In fact, the numbers are actually good. The problem I have with them is that when put in context (top-12 RBs), they look a little bit shakier. Zeke is getting off draft boards by the 10th pick, which is to say he's getting drafted as the RB6 for the 2021 season. Nothing crazy, to be sure, but more based on expected volume than actual efficient production: Elliott averaged the fourth-lowest FP/Snap (0.31) among rushers with 400+ snaps, almost half of no. 1 Alvin Kamara's (0.60) mark.
Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals
It'd be a little bit harsh to drop the hammer on Mixon considering he only played six games last season. The good thing for us and our analysis purposes, though, is that he still logged a healthy 282 snaps in those games, good enough to rank inside the top-50 players in terms of snaps played, a good-enough sample to work with. Now, that being said, keep in mind that Mixon is rock-healthy as he'd played 14+ games in each of the prior three seasons with at least 212 opportunities in every one of them (145 in 2020, which would yield the largest Opp/G average of his career at 24+).
Last season marked Mixon's second-best year as a pro in terms of FPPG with 16.6. Missing time killed his counting-FP upside and he could only finish as the RB49, but he was good on a per-game basis to close the year as the RB9. Now for the bad, his efficiency wasn't surely close to greatness. Mixon was great at Evaded Tackles per Game (4.7, 89th percentile), but other than that, he only averaged a putrid 83rd-most Yds/Touch (9th pctl.), and just a slightly better 1.02 Yds. Created/Touch that ranked 47th among qualified RBs (47th pctl.).
Setting the bar at a reasonable 100+ snaps played, Mixon's ELU mark of 3.6 would rank in the 9th percentile and the eighth-worst among all 93rd qualified rushers... That, simply put, is unacceptable no matter how you look at it. Mixon's receiving game isn't remotely good, not at least for someone getting drafted as a second-rounder tops, and although his rushing prowess isn't bad, the truth is that he did more before getting touched by the defense (1.9 YBC/Att) than after that (1.7 YAC/Att). Pretty much like in Elliott's case (read above), Mixon would be fine if he gets the volume. But, if he misses time once more and you have to see him rely on some über-efficient production in the time he's available, the most probable outcome might be a little bit disappointing.
Cam Akers, Los Angeles Rams
The Rams spent a second-round pick in Akers last spring and all he did was... become part of a true committee in LA. Akers was forced to share the field with both Darrell Henderson (154) and Malcolm Brown (124) and could only reach 156 touches on the year. His 13-game numbers, when prorated to a full 16-game season, though, would have led the backfield, and he was the second-best of the three in FPPG. Now, entering his sophomore year and with Brown out of town, fantasy GMs are definitely buying into Akers' upside... perhaps too much?
I'm not here to hate on Akers, but the truth is that he lacked both the volume and the efficiency to even be an RB3 by the end of the year. Akers finished as the RB45 with 101.8 FP while averaging 7.8 FPPG. Even as a rookie, last summer saw Akers' ADP sit all the way up at RB19, yet he widely underperformed those expectations. Did that impact his current ADP? No sir. Akers' ADP is actually higher these days at an overall of around 11, making him a first-round selection in most 12-team leagues. A little bit crazy, if you ask me.
Akers posted a low 8.1 ELU mark in 2020. He caught 79% of his targets... but sadly only got targeted 14 times. He averaged 4.8 Yds/Touch... but only logged 156 touches. And he rushed for virtually the same yardage before (321) than after (304) contact. All of that, paired with his low six Broken Tackles (24+ ruAtt. per BT) and his below-average 27 Evaded Tackles in all his games combined, made for a good-not-great running back. If we assume that he will 1) be the clear leader of the backfield, 2) double his volume, and 3) raise his efficiency, then Akers at an ADP of 11 doesn't look crazy. I'm sorry, but those are too many question marks around this man.
Leonard Fournette, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Had I asked you no more than a year ago to give me an over/under of Fournette winning 0.5 SuperBowls in his career, I'm positive you would have taken the under. Then came September, Lenny forced his way out of Jacksonville, he landed in Tampa Bay, and the rest is history. I loved it as I'm Lenny's no. 1 stan, but it can't definitely be said that the Lombardi is sitting on the Bucs' shelves precisely because of this boy's production.
Fournette logged 13 games but just 133 touches in his first season as a Buc. That makes sense, though, considering Tampa featured as many as four rushers throughout the season in Lenny, Ronald Jones II, LeSean McCoy, and Ke'Shawn Vaughn. Too many mouths to feed. After a fantastic 2019 season on the receiving end (76-of-100 receptions for 522 yards), Fournette dropped to just 36-of-47 for 233 and he just had 97 carries for 367 yards, only saving his season thanks to scoring six touchdowns on the ground.
Had Fournette been slightly more efficient/elusive as a rusher and receiver, and he could have multiplied those numbers. Too bad for him, though, this is all he did:
- 21 Evaded Tackles (38th of 88 RBs with 100+ snaps)
- 1.6 ET per Game (40th)
- 2.0 Yards After Contact per RuAtt (44th)
- 1.7 Yards Before Contact per RuAtt (74th)
- No broken tackles (last, obviously)
That makes me want to cry. And to fade Fournette entering the 2021 draft season, of course.
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