RADIO
Ian Christenson Round 3 PGA DFS showdown slate picks for the 2025 FedEx St. Jude Championship. His top in-tournament DFS lineup picks and top plays for DraftKings and FanDuel.
Hello, Rotoballers! I hope everyone is doing well and is ready for another exciting year of PGA DFS. Showdown has returned for another season on DraftKings alongside the PGA Tour, and we’re here to help guide you, whether you’re looking to continue your journey from where you left off in 2024 or are new to this particular DFS format.
Round 2 has been postponed until tomorrow at 7:30 AM CT due to a thunderstorm, with just under a third of the players still needing to complete their rounds. Leading the charge is Tommy Fleetwood, who has been on fire and now holds a commanding four-stroke lead over Collin Morikawa, Akshay Bhatia, and Justin Rose, all tied for second at 9-under. Andrew Novak has also been impressive, with two solid rounds that have tied him for fifth at 8-under, alongside Kurt Kitayama. Meanwhile, Jacob Bridgeman, Bud Cauley, Scottie Scheffler, and Maverick McNealy find themselves sharing the seventh spot at 7-under.
Unlike standard golf DFS, which covers the entire tournament, Showdown focuses on each round as an individual event. It's crucial to find players who excel on approach shots, but it’s also important to make roster decisions that provide ownership leverage by selecting riskier players who may not have been performing their best recently but could have a strong bounce-back round. In other words, this is a sprint, not a marathon.
Happy New Year! Save 30% on any Premium Pass using discount code NEW. Win more with our DFS, Betting and Season-Long Pass, get expert tools and advice from proven winners! GAIN ACCESS
Weather, Course Conditions, and Tee Times
Tomorrow's weather forecast indicates that it will be windier in the morning compared to the afternoon, with significant gusts expected. In Round 1, the course played an average of 0.91 strokes under par, while so far in Round 2, it has played an average of 1.22 strokes under par.
All of the stats I quote are as of when play was suspended today at 3:31 PM CT. Since this is a no cut event, I won't update in the morning, but REMEMBER TO CHECK YOUR LINEUPS BEFORE THE 9:50 AM CT ROUND 3 LOCK IF YOU WANT TO MAKE ANY LAST-MINUTE CHANGES TO YOUR LINEUPS!!
Round 3 Strategy
The key to success in showdowns is to look for ball strikers who can have a standout putting performance. Having two exceptional putting days in a row is quite challenging, so we should focus on golfers who have been consistent with their approach shots and created birdie opportunities but fell short in converting them.
It’s also beneficial to target players who need to improve their position on the leaderboard, as they often push harder on moving day. Additionally, golfers who have shown some positive form in the first two rounds are great candidates to consider.
Keep in mind that ownership levels tend to decrease as the morning's first tee time approaches, so identifying players who are likely to bounce back is crucial for achieving significant wins.
$10,000+
Favorite Play: Tommy Fleetwood has been nothing short of sensational over the first two rounds, carding just two bogeys while racking up an impressive 15 birdies. Fleetwood has been great off the tee and on approach. In Round 1, he gained 2.936 strokes on approach, and his 1.602 strokes gained off the tee led the field. In Round 2, he wasn't as good off the tee, losing 0.264 strokes off the tee, but gained 3.055 strokes on approach. Fleetwood has shown no signs of slowing down, and I'll take my chances on him continuing to play at the level he has so far.
Roll the tape 🎞️
Highlights from @TommyFleetwood1’s second round. pic.twitter.com/ltZw0IyRVv
— FedEx St. Jude Championship (@FedExChamp) August 9, 2025
$9,000+
Favorite Play: Ludvig Aberg didn't have his approach game dialed in today and lost 1.652 strokes on approach. However, he led the field in strokes gained off the tee, gaining 1.693 strokes off the tee. In Round 1, he was slightly more pedestrian, gaining 0.066 strokes off the tee, but was outstanding with his approach play, gaining 2.299 strokes on approach. Despite the ups and downs, Aberg hasn't quite been able to convert some birdie chances. Aberg is one spike putting day away from going low, and I will have him in my lineups tomorrow.
Other Options: Collin Morikawa, Viktor Hovland
$8,000+
Favorite Play: Sepp Straka hasn't done anything flashy through the first two rounds. So far, he’s hit 66.67% of greens in regulation and racked up 11 birdies across the first two rounds. In Round 1, he gained 0.213 strokes on approach and 0.058 strokes off the tee. Round 2 saw a bit of a dip in his approach play, losing 0.531 strokes on approach, but he gained 1.399 strokes off the tee. While he may not be in line for the low round of the day, I see him as a reliable option, likely to drop between 4 and 5 birdies. With that level of performance, he could be a solid pick in this price range.
Other Options: Harry Hall, Cameron Young, Corey Conners
Fantastic shot.
Incredible golfer’s tan. 😂 pic.twitter.com/cZ5GfTvJpq
— FedEx St. Jude Championship (@FedExChamp) August 8, 2025
$7,000+
Favorite Play: Si Woo Kim finished with a solid three straight birdies on his final three holes today, giving his showdown score a boost by notching the 3-Consecutive Birdie bonus on DraftKings. In Round 1, he gained 2.958 strokes on approach but struggled off the tee, losing 0.241 strokes off the tee. In Round 2, he was better off the tee, gaining 1.336 strokes off the tee and 2.246 strokes on approach. Unfortunately, the flat stick let him down, losing 3.684 strokes putting. While I don’t anticipate a repeat of the stellar putting performance from Round 1, considering how good he's been off the tee and on approach through the first two rounds, if he's marginally better on the greens than he was today, he'll be a prime bounce-back candidate. This makes him an intriguing option, especially since he might fly under the radar in terms of ownership.
Other Options: Chris Kirk, Akshay Bhatia, Wyndham Clark, Maverick McNealy
$6,000+
Favorite Play: Andrew Novak has been nothing short of exceptional, carding no bogeys across the first nine holes in both rounds so far. In Round 1, Novak gained 0.174 strokes off the tee and 0.396 strokes on approach. Had his putting been a bit sharper, he could have easily gone lower, as he lost 1.517 strokes on the greens. Fast forward to Round 2, where he gained 2.767 strokes on approach while losing 0.147 strokes off the tee. Most importantly, he had the flat stick working, gaining 1.883 strokes putting. Novak has hit 66.67% of greens in regulation and dropped 10 birdies through the first two rounds, and that's someone I want in my lineups.
Other Options: Sungjae Im, Jacob Bridgeman, Tony Finau, Matti Schmid
Now on the mic, @KattWilliams! 🎙️
Hot takes incoming on @PGATOURLIVE. pic.twitter.com/vabqywFbj9
— FedEx St. Jude Championship (@FedExChamp) August 8, 2025
Guy I'm Playing That You Shouldn't
This will be an every-week addition to my article where I'll pick a golfer who I believe has shown he can go nuclear but has every chance he could dud and should generally be reserved for the largest field GPP tournaments.
Cam Davis may not have racked up many birdies just yet, but there's still plenty of hope as he heads into the final stretch of his second round with eight holes to go. He's gained 1.699 strokes off the tee and 1.341 strokes on approach so far. We know Davis isn't a great putter, but his solid ball-striking is enough for me to take a chance on him in a few lineups. Plus, he’ll likely fly under the radar as one of the less popular picks on the slate. Let's just hope he can pull his putter out of his hat tomorrow.
This lineup is for demonstration purposes only.
Showdown Optimizer
The optimizer works nicely with the projected ownership from the model. If you are unsure how to use it, there is a video at the top of the "PGA Lineup Optimizer" page on how to get my projected ownership and/or projected points into your optimizer.
Good luck, and may the odds ever be in your favor.
Win More With RotoBallerWin more with expert tools and advice from proven winners! RotoBaller's PGA Premium Packages feature several savvy analysts and proven winners for DFS and betting.
Our very own Joe Nicely took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:
If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU
— Joe Nicely (@JoeNicely) June 28, 2020
Between all the incredible Premium PGA DFS and Betting content and tools we put out each week, and our Premium Slack Community where we chat with our subscribers before lineups lock, RotoBaller PGA subscribers are armed with the tools, analysis, and advice to win more.Congrats @tenndolly2 ???
— RotoBaller PGA (@RotoBallerPGA) August 10, 2020
Thanks for being a @RotoBaller PGA DFS Premium subscriber & checking out all the amazing golf content that @JoeNicely produces every week! https://t.co/tHKZVsPbbt
