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Tyler Atlas breaks down the fantasy football impact of backfields affected by rookie running backs selected in the 2022 NFL Draft (Round 2-3 Picks). Which RBs are risers or fallers?
Each year we see a handful of incoming rookie RBs finish as a RB2 or better in fantasy football. While the best rookies are typically those who are drafted on Day 2 or earlier (Najee Harris, Jonathan Taylor), there are also some recent examples of Day 3 picks and UDFA RBs who had great rookie seasons (Elijah Mitchell, James Robinson). In this article, I’ll just be covering those drafted on Day 2 of the 2022 NFL Draft, or rounds 2-3.
There were 24 different running backs selected in the 2022 NFL Draft. How many will have immediate relevance in their offense this season? More importantly, how will each of these incoming rookie RBs impact the backfields they are entering?
Let's take a comprehensive look at the backfield situations for teams that spent draft capital on a running back this season.
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New York Jets: Breece Hall (Pick #36)
It seemed like Jets 2021 rookie RB Michael Carter was due for a breakout in year two… until the team traded up to draft the consensus RB1 in the draft class, Breece Hall. In his last two years at Iowa State, Hall totaled 3,044 rush YDs and 41 rush TDs, with 1,500 YDs and 20 TDs in each season. Hall was a mediocre pass-catcher at best, averaging just 30 receptions and 240 receiving YDs per year over those two seasons.
On the other hand, Michael Carter had 55 targets in his 14 games played in 2021 (3.9 targets/game). After the recent addition of the clear best RB in this class, I see second-year running back Michael Carter getting moved to the third-down role in the Jets offense, similar to Nyheim Hines alongside Jonathan Taylor in Indianapolis. In this new role, Carter is unlikely to be the best RB on his own team, and he should drop significantly in fantasy football drafts. Jets' backups Tevin Coleman and Ty Johnson should remain undrafted, as they'll both likely have little to no role in the offense.
Seattle Seahawks: Kenneth Walker III (Pick #41)
Seahawks’ 2018 first-round RB Rashaad Penny was finally given the opportunity to succeed at the end of the 2021 season. Penny took this opportunity and ran with it… literally! He averaged 18.4 carries, 134.2 rush YDs, and 1.2 rush TDs per game over the team's last five matchups. Then, after proving his value to the team, the Seahawks re-signed Penny to a 1 year, $5.75 million deal with $5.1 million guaranteed. After battling injuries all throughout the beginning of his career, it seemed like Penny was bound for a 2022 breakout. Then, the Seahawks surprised everyone by adding to their backfield by drafting Kenneth Walker III out of Michigan State.
The Seahawks also spent their first and third-round picks on offensive tackles, so it seems like the team is preparing for a run-heavy approach next season. Considering 90% of his contract is guaranteed, I’d expect Rashaad Penny to continue to play an important role in the Seahawks' run game in 2022. However, he’ll likely be splitting with incoming rookie Kenneth Walker every week. Penny should fall in fantasy football drafts accordingly.
After suffering season-ending injuries in two of the last three seasons, I expect Chris Carson to be relegated to backup duties behind Penny and Walker. Meanwhile, DeeJay Dallas lead the Seahawks' RB group in targets in 2021, but played less snaps in 17 games than Carson did in just 4 games. Dallas should continue to play a minimum role on the offense, filling in as a pass-catcher occasionally, but mostly playing on special teams. Both Carson and Dallas should remain undrafted in 2022.
Buffalo Bills: James Cook (Pick #63)
The Bills’ current RBs, Devin Singletary and Zack Moss, could be in for some heavy pass-catching competition this season alongside former Georgia RB James Cook. This draft pick is especially important when considering that it was reported Buffalo had previously attempted to sign free agent pass-catching specialist J.D. McKissic earlier in the offseason before talks fell through.
Bills’ GM Brandon Beane even pointed out the skillset similarities between Cook and McKissic, stating “we really liked his skillset, similar to the one we saw with McKissic, a guy that’s got really good hands, very instinctive in the passing game… some guys just have the feel, like a slot receiver.” Therefore, based on these quotes from the Bills’ GM and his usage at Georgia, it is fair to assume that James Cook should have an immediate role in Buffalo’s high-volume passing offense as their go-to pass-catching threat out of the backfield, which is also exactly how McKissic would be utilized.
Last season, following Week 13, Singletary played on 84% of snaps, averaging 3.7 targets, 90 YDs, and 1.3 TDs per game. In 2022, I’d expect Singletary to continue to see a majority of the ground work, while Cook comes in for passing plays. Moss, who played on just 22% of snaps over his final four games of 2021, will likely serve as Singletary's backup throughout the season. While some may consider this landing spot to be great for Cook, the backfield may simply be too crowded to project an immediate breakout in his rookie season. Either way, this pick definitely knocks Singletary down fantasy draft boards.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Rachaad White (Pick #91)
Last season, the Buccaneers had a very crowded backfield consisting of Leonard Fournette, Ronald Jones, and Giovanni Bernard. Yet, despite this crowded backfield, Fournette still averaged 18.3 PPR PPG on just ~63% offensive snaps every week. This offseason, the Buccaneers re-signed both Fournette and Bernard, but lost Ronald Jones to the Chiefs in free agency. In the 2022 NFL Draft, the Buccaneers spent their third-round pick on Rachaad White out of Arizona State, who was ranked first in target share last season among all incoming rookie RBs (18.9%).
After becoming the fourth RB selected, White should have an immediate impact on the Buccaneers offense in their third-down role, likely replacing Bernard. Buccaneers' backup Ke'Shawn Vaughn played just 17 total snaps while Fournette was active last season, and will likely remain a backup in 2022. Even with the investment into a rookie RB this offseason, Fournette should see continued success as long as Tom Brady is leading the offense at quarterback. He has already proven to have massive success last season with less than 65% of the offensive snaps, and should have no issues in the same situation this season either.
San Francisco 49ers: Tyrion Davis-Price (Pick #93)
This pick was a bit of a surprise considering the 49ers had previously invested in two other RBs in last season’s draft. While most analysts projected the 2021 88th overall pick Trey Sermon to lead the 49ers backfield last season, it was actually sixth-round pick Elijah Mitchell who carried the majority workload throughout the year. In fact, Mitchell totaled the eighth-most rush YDs (963) of all RBs last season, despite only playing in 11 games. Meanwhile, third-round pick Sermon could only muster just three games where he played on more than 5% of snaps, all of which came in games that Mitchell had missed entirely.
Now fast forward to today, and the 49ers spent another third-round pick on an RB, Tyrion Davis-Price out of LSU. Davis-Price graded out as the best pass-blocking RB in this draft class (remember the 49ers love using their FB Kyle Juszczyk). He’s listed at 6’1, 223lbs, and ran a 4.48 40-yd dash. Compared to Mitchell (5’10, 200lbs, 4.32), Davis-Price’s skill set seems much more similar to Sermon (6’0, 215lbs, 4.58) who was only used in the absence of Mitchell throughout last season.
For these reasons, I see Davis-Price as the immediate replacement for Sermon, while Mitchell maintains the same role as last season. Therefore, despite the team’s recent investment into another young RB, I expect Elijah Mitchell to continue his dominance in the 49ers backfield in 2022. Jeff Wilson Jr. and JaMycal Hasty should stay undrafted in fantasy football drafts as backups behind Mitchell and new addition Davis-Price.
Washington Commanders: Brian Robinson Jr. (Pick #98)
Last season, analysts projected a breakout for Washington’s second-year RB Antonio Gibson. However, after battling injuries all season and having third-down work vultured by pass-catching specialist J.D. McKissic, this breakout never came to fruition. After re-signing J.D. McKissic on a 2 year, $7 million deal, Washington then went ahead and invested in a third running back in the 2022 NFL Draft. The Commanders added to their already crowded backfield by spending a third-round selection on Brian Robinson Jr, who totaled 1639 YDs and 16 TDs in his final season at Alabama.
Antonio Gibson’s competition in his own backfield becomes even more apparent when considering recent comments from Commanders’ HC Ron Rivera. In regards to their recent third-round pick, Rivera stated that “he’s going to add very nicely to what we have with Antonio Gibson in terms of a 1-2 punch. A lot of success that I’ve had as a head coach has a lot to do with having a quality 1-2 punch. We had Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams in Carolina... We were very successful with that.”
Clearly, Robinson should compete with Gibson for touches immediately, as HC Ron Rivera has no plans of using exclusively one running back at any point in Washington. McKissic will maintain his pass-catching role, so this backfield looks to be evenly split between each of of their three running backs, and none of these players should be ranked highly in fantasy football. Of all RBs to be drafted in round 3 this season, Brian Robinson has by far the biggest impact on his team in 2022.
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