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The contest we are going to focus on in this article is the FantasyBook Over/Under DFS Props contest, specifically for the Thursday Night Game between the Patriots and Bills. FantasyBook allows you to build a two-to-five pick based on their fantasy points projection and pick over or under the projected total. If you get all of your picks correct, you can win up to 18x your buy-in.
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RIVAL FantasyBook NFL Over/Under Picks for Week 13 Thursday Night Football
Mac Jones OVER 13.19 Fantasy Points
It has been a rather tumultuous season for Mac Jones, who was benched for Bailey Zappe earlier this year, but he's looked much better since returning to the starting role. Additionally, his early season struggles have kept the line lower for him, despite the fact that he's coming off a massive performance against the Vikings, throwing for 382 yards and two touchdowns.
It's important to note that RIVAL Fantasy uses four-point quarterback scoring, which in this case means Jones can hit the over either by throwing for one touchdown and 250 yards or two touchdowns and 150 yards. The Bills opened the year as a juggernaut on defense, but over the past three weeks, they've given up an average of 307 yards and two passing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks. Furthermore, they weren't even facing elite signal-callers, as that list includes Jared Goff, Jacoby Brissett, and Kirk Cousins. It sets up as a great spot for Jones to continue his resurgence, hitting the over.
Rhamondre Stevenson OVER 18.58 fantasy points
Stevenson is in the midst of an awesome season, finally getting his shot to be the lead back. Part of why Jones has been successful is because he's frequently dumping the ball off to Stevenson, which is a recipe for huge point totals in PPR formats. Stevenson trails only Christian McCaffrey and Austin Ekeler in running back receptions with 50, 47 of which have come in the last nine games, an average of over five per game during that stretch.
What's also working in Stevenson's favor is that his teammate Damien Harris has already been ruled out for Thursday's game. Since Harris went down in Week 5, Stevenson has played all but one game with Harris either limited, exiting early, or out. In those games, he's scored 19.5 or more fantasy points all but one time while averaging about 21 points per game, locking him in to hit the over.
Devin Singletary UNDER 11.08 fantasy points
The line doesn't sound that high at first glance, but Singletary has only cleared that mark in four games this year, three of which he found the end zone. Therefore, this is really more about whether or not he'll score on Thursday. The Patriots are the worst matchup for fantasy running backs on the season. They're also ranked seventh in defense DVOA.
The last time a running back scored more than 11.08 points against them was in Week 7 when David Montgomery of the Bears barely did it with 12.2 points. Before that, it was in Week 5 by Craig Reynolds of the Lions, who also scored 12.2 points. You get the picture. Take the under for Singletary against a stout New England run defense.
Gabe Davis UNDER 11.77 fantasy points
Davis is the epitome of a boom-bust wide receiver with 14.8 or more points in three weeks, including finishing as the overall WR1 in Week 5 against Pittsburgh, while also scoring 5.5 points or fewer in five games. The line is 0.03 points fewer than his total last week, which was the only time this season he went over that mark without a touchdown. Once again, we find ourselves deciding on the odds of a player finding pay dirt.
On top of the volatility Davis possesses, he's also been competing with Isaiah McKenzie for targets, who is coming off his best game of the year. Add in Dawson Knox at tight end, and of course Stefon Diggs, and it becomes clear why volume has been an issue. New England is the seventh-worst matchup for wide receivers on the season, limiting the total points that will be distributed among the players mentioned, which is why taking the under on Davis is the move.
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