RIVAL Fantasy - NFL FantasyBook Over/Under DFS Prop Picks: Week 14 MNF

December 12, 2022

Josh Constantinou's NFL Over/Under DFS prop picks for RIVAL fantasy contests and the Week 14 MNF game. Sign up for RIVAL fantasy and use his NFL DFS prop picks to win money.

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The contest we will focus on in this article is the FantasyBook Over/Under DFS Props contest, specifically for the Monday Night Game between the Patriots and Cardinals. FantasyBook allows you to build a two-to-five pick based on their fantasy points projection and pick over or under the projected total. If you get all of your picks correct, you can win up to 18x your buy-in.

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RIVAL FantasyBook NFL Over/Under Picks for Week 14 Monday Night Football

James Conner UNDER 14.41 fantasy points

Conner is an excellent pass-catcher, which gives him a boost in PPR formats. However, he's only cleared that line twice this season, requiring multiple touchdowns or over 100 yards and a score to get there. In addition, the Patriots are the second-worst matchup for fantasy running backs on the season. They're also ranked seventh in run defense DVOA.

The last time a running back scored more than 14.41 points against them was in Week 4, when Aaron Jones of the Packers scored 14.5 points, barely clearing that mark. Furthermore, that's actually the only time it's happened all year. Take the under for Conner against a stout New England run defense.

Rhamondre Stevenson OVER 18.49 fantasy points

Stevenson is in the midst of a fantastic season, finally getting his shot to be the lead back. He's frequently being used as a receiver, which is a recipe for huge point totals in PPR formats. Stevenson trails only Christian McCaffrey and Austin Ekeler in running back receptions with 56, averaging over five per game during his past 10 outings.

What's also working in Stevenson's favor is that his teammate Damien Harris has already been listed as doubtful for Monday's game, and is expected to be out. Since Harris went down initially in Week 5, Stevenson has played all but one game with Harris either limited, exiting early, or out. In those games, he's scored 19.5 or more fantasy points all but twice while averaging about 20 points per game, locking him in to hit the over.

DeAndre Hopkins UNDER 16.86 fantasy points

Hopkins has been on a tear since returning from his six-game suspension, resuming his role as an elite wide receiver. However, his return coincided with the loss of Marquise Brown, who was on the field at the same time as Hopkins for the first time two weeks ago. While he still totaled 18.7 fantasy points, what was concerning was he only had four receptions on six targets. It was only the second time he's had fewer than nine receptions and fewer than 12 targets.

Furthermore, not only will he be joined by Brown on Monday, but Greg Dortch will be active after missing last week's game, meaning he'll return to the slot role and take away potential targets. A significant reason why Hopkins has cleared this line so often is that he's been a target hog with minimal competition, which won't be the case against New England. Additionally, the Patriots are the seventh-worst matchup for wide receivers on the year, reducing the total points to be distributed among those three receivers. Take the under on Hopkins.

Kyler Murray OVER 18.49 Fantasy Points

It's been a rollercoaster ride for Murray, who signed a contract extension in the offseason. There has been a suspension or injury to pretty much every key offensive player on the team, including Murray himself. That said, he is currently healthy and will have nearly all of the aforementioned weapons at his disposal on Monday. He's played his past four games with Hopkins in the lineup, averaging 224 passing yards, 1.5 passing touchdowns, and 45.5 rushing yards with him active.

It's important to note that RIVAL Fantasy uses four-point quarterback scoring, providing an edge to mobile quarterbacks like Murray who frequently find the end zone on the ground for six points. If you add up the averages referenced above, it would give him 19.5 fantasy points. Plus, he's scored 19 or more points in each of his past three outings, making selecting the over the correct choice.

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