RADIO
Week 1 of the 2021 NFL season is officially in the books. We finally have real data to dissect. Overreactions will undoubtedly be made, but there's also a lot of good information we can use to help make decisions as we head into Week 2 and beyond.
In this weekly column, we'll be looking at players whose arrow may be pointing up, and players whose arrow may be pointing down based on the previous week's games. We'll try not to overreact, but instead, use relevant data to make informed decisions about certain players.
Here are the key risers and fallers coming out of Week 1 of the NFL season.
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Week 1 Fantasy Football Risers
Jameis Winston, New Orleans Saints
After a year sitting behind one of the best to ever do it in Drew Brees, Winston finally got another opportunity as a starting quarterback in the NFL. He didn't disappoint, completing 14-of-20 passes for 148 yards and five touchdowns for a QB rating of 130.8. While he likely won't throw a touchdown every four passes as he did in Week 1 vs. the Packers, the performance from Winston was very encouraging. He took care of the football after averaging 2.2 turnovers per game back in 2019 with the Buccaneers. More importantly, Taysom Hill only attempted one pass and had two rush attempts. Hopefully, Sean Payton won't feel the need to spell Winston as much as he did with Brees last season. Oh, and don't sleep on Winston's sneaky rushing ability. He scrambled six times for 37 yards in Week 1.
Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers
Deebo led all receivers with a massive 52% target share in Week 1. Not only that, he led all receivers in targets per route run (TPRR) at 48%. Those are some unheard-of percentages. While it's certainly possible someone else steps up in Week 2 for the 49ers, it's hard to ignore the chemistry Samuel has with QB Jimmy Garoppolo. He played on 84% of the snaps as well, which he did just four times in 2019 due to nagging injuries. Including last season, Samuel has averaged nine targets per game when he plays over 80% of the snaps, so this wasn't some fluke. With Brandon Aiyuk battling a hamstring injury and attempting to get back in good graces with the coaching staff, Samuel looks poised to take a step forward in 2021 as the lead guy. It's just one week, but he's looking like a steal at his preseason WR36 ADP.
DeVonta Smith, Philadelphia Eagles
The 2020 Heisman Trophy winner came out of the gates hot, catching 6-of-8 targets for 71 yards and a touchdown. What's even more noteworthy is just how often he was on the field. Smith played on 87% of the snaps in his first career NFL game. Durability didn't seem to be an issue, and he was rewarded with a 25% target share as a result. Smith and Jalen Hurts were in lockstep all game, a trend that will likely continue as the season moves on. The Eagles got a good one, and so did you if you spent a draft pick on the former Alabama product this season.
Elijah Mitchell and Trey Sermon, San Francisco 49ers
With Raheem Mostert suffering a knee injury that will keep him out around eight weeks, Elijah Mitchell was forced into a feature role in his first career NFL game. He handled 78% of the RB rushing attempts on 68% of the snaps after Mostert left the game. All of this while Trey Sermon, a third-round pick the 49ers traded up in the Draft to select, was a healthy inactive. Head coach Kyle Shanahan explained to the media that Mitchell and JaMycal Hasty simply beat out Sermon during training camp. But with Mostert now slated to miss extended time, Sermon could jump right back into the backfield rotation. Expect Mitchell to get the first crack in Week 2, but don't be surprised if Sermon steps up and takes a nice chunk of work as well.
D'Andre Swift, Detroit Lions
A "limited" D'Andre Swift rushed 11 times and saw 11 targets on 68% of the snaps. That's significant, as he only hit that snap percentage twice last season. The Lions also ran a whopping 92 plays in Week 1. Granted they were in catch-up mode for most of the game, but that could be a trend moving forward if the defense continues to struggle. Jared Goff targeted his running backs 37.5% of the time. Swift is likely to dominate the snaps in Detroit, so while the 11 targets were a lot, he's going to be an RB1 on a weekly basis in PPR formats. And remember, new Lions offensive coordinator Anthony Lynn came from Los Angeles, where he coached Austin Ekeler, who averaged 6.7 targets per game between 2019 and 2020.
Chris Carson, Seattle Seahawks
Last season, Carson never played on more than 71% of the snaps in any one game. In Week 1 of the 2021 NFL season, he played on 78% of the snaps. Carson got 16 carries and saw three targets against the Colts, totaling 117 yards. He got 84% of the RB carries and saw 75% of the RB targets. And now backup running back Rashaad Penny is out at least a few weeks, which means Carson's role as the workhorse back is as safe as it's ever been.
Noah Fant, Denver Broncos
Fant's arrow is pointing up after Jerry Jeudy suffered a high-ankle sprain in Week 1. Even before the injury, it was clear Teddy Bridgewater had his eyes on Fant, who was targeted seven times prior to Jeudy exiting the game. He finished with eight targets, for an impressive 22.9% target share. Last season, he saw a 17.5% target share. Fant also played on 77% of the snaps, a number that could potentially increase as a result of the Jeudy injury.
Other Risers: Mike Williams, Corey Davis, D.J. Chark, Tyler Higbee
Week 1 Fantasy Football Fallers
Ryan Tannehill, Tennesee Titans
It may be an overreaction, but Tannehill on the Titans' offense looked lethargic in Week 1 vs. the Cardinals. He completed just 21-of-35 passes for 212 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. He rushed for another touchdown, which ended up salvaging his lackluster performance. With all the weapons around him, most notably A.J. Brown and Julio Jones, Tannehill could very well bounce back in Week 2. But here's something concerning, Arthur Smith, Titans' new offensive coordinator, ran play-action just 11.6% of the time. In 2020, the Titans led the league with a 36.4% play-action rate, which led to a career year for Tannehill.
Robert Woods, Los Angeles Rams
Woods came into the season as a consensus top-15 wide receiver, ahead of teammate Cooper Kupp, but after one week it's looking like Kupp might take over as the WR1 in Los Angeles. Woods still played on 80.7% of the snaps in Week 1, but last season he was averaging over 90% of the snaps. He also only ran a route on 68% of Matthew Stafford's dropbacks, per PFF. In comparison, Cooper Kupp ran a route on 100% of dropbacks, while Van Jefferson ran a route on 86% of dropbacks. Woods only saw four targets in Week 1, a number he surpassed in every single game last season. Something to keep an eye on, but for now, Woods has to be considered a faller.
Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Evans, much like Robert Woods, was considered a consensus top-15 wide receiver by most heading into the 2021 NFL season. Many people were hesitant based on his usage with Antonio Brown in the lineup down the stretch in 2020, but he was still generally drafted as a top-20 guy. Week 1 wasn't kind to Evans, who saw just a 13% target share. Last season, that number stood at around 18%, which is still not great considering his target share was close to 24% in 2019. Evans could absolutely pop at any time as Tom Brady is known to spread the ball around to his receivers, but that's just the problem. Brady isn't locking in on Evans enough for him to return value as a top-15 or 20 player this season. Expect some ups, but expect more downs from Evans this season.
James Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars
Robinson saw an unprecedented amount of work last season, handling 85.4% of all Jacksonville's RB carries. Despite the loss of Travis Etienne, he handled just 35.7% of Jacksonville's RB carries in Week 1. The ageless Carlos Hyde handled 64.3% of the RB carries. Granted, Robinson had six targets to just two for Hyde, but it's clear Hyde is going to be involved in this offense. The Jaguars are likely to be trailing in a lot of games this season, which doesn't bode well for Robinson as far as volume is concerned. If you drafted him to be a top-15 RB this season, you might be feeling a bit uneasy after the workload and the state of the Jaguars' offense after one week.
Ronald Jones II, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This one's pretty easy. Jones only played on 9% of the snaps and didn't see the field after fumbling in the second quarter. But even before the fumble, Jones only got three carries to Leonard Fournette's five carries. It seems as if Bruce Arians has much more trust in Fournette to shoulder the load. And it was Giovani Bernard complementing Fournette throughout the game on third downs and in the two-minute drill. RoJo certainly looks to be on the outside looking in after Week 1.
Myles Gaskin, Miami Dolphins
Sure, Gaskin got nine carries and saw five targets, but he only played on 54% of the snaps. In 2020, he never played on fewer than 62% of the snaps in any of his 10 games played. Last season, he averaged 18.3 touches per game, compared to just 14 in Week 1. Malcolm Brown and Salvon Ahmed both look like they'll have a role on a weekly basis, making it difficult to trust Gaskin in anything more than a flex spot.
Mike Gesicki, Miami Dolphins
Gesicki looked good in the preseason. He looked to be developing some really good chemistry with Tua Tagovailoa. But he played on just 39% of the snaps in Week 1 and saw just two targets. With Will Fuller expected back in Week 2 after serving a one-game suspension, Gesicki's stock is drastically declining. You might want to wait another week before parting ways entirely, but consider that an option as early as this week if there are some guys on the waiver wire that interest you.
Other Fallers: Kenny Golladay, Robby Anderson, Sony Michel, Austin Hooper
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