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Chris' NFL rookie quarterback sleepers for 2023 fantasy football drafts. His 2023 rookie QB projections help predict fantasy football dynasty league success.
After a weak 2022 NFL Draft that left a bitter taste in the mouths of QB-needy Superflex teams last year, rookie quarterbacks are back on the radar of Superflex managers. Heading into fantasy football drafts last year, Kenny Pickett’s ceiling was always likely to be a mid-tier QB2. Malik Willis and Desmond Ridder had interesting fantasy potential but an astonishingly high bust factor. Last year, no quarterbacks were guaranteed to go in the first round of dynasty rookie drafts, even though Superflex leagues usually see multiple passers get drafted early and often.
This year, however, is different. The 2023 NFL Draft has offered us the potential for a top-five fantasy quarterback in Anthony Richardson along with Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud, two polished passers whose profiles suggest fantasy success. We haven't even mentioned Will Levis’ top-tier arm strength and the fine wine that is Hendon Hooker. With all this promising talent, it isn't surprising that we saw five passers go in the top 70 picks of the 2023 NFL Draft, whereas last year’s class had just one.
With this intriguing class of quarterbacks ready to join the league, projecting the statistical output of rookie passers is once again relevant. This class might even be more fantasy relevant than the much-hyped 2021 quarterback class. Two years ago, we expected Trey Lance to sit for most of his rookie year, and we assumed Justin Fields and Zach Wilson would go through some growing pains. However, this current class has the potential to make a more immediate impact. Read on as we attempt to project the immediate fantasy potential these rookie passers can bring to your fantasy teams.
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Note: The projections below are generated using my own algorithm. This algorithm takes into account each rookie’s advanced stats from college, their physical metrics, and their testing numbers. It also factors in my film analysis, comparing each rookie to veterans with similar profiles. I use these statistics and notes to create a tiered profile for each quarterback and evaluate it against what rookies with similar profiles have done in comparable situations.
Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts
Anthony Richardson has become the darling of dynasty Superflex leagues. No quarterback in recent memory has had an NFL Combine like his. The 6'4", 244-pound Gator's 4.41 time in the 40-yard dash and a 40.5" high jump were incredibly impressive. Richardson's film shows off his arm strength and elite rushing ability. Simply put, Richardson shares the same Josh Allen-type fantasy upside that had people excited about Trey Lance two years ago. However, similar to Lance and Allen, there are areas of concern.
Richardson's college production falls short of the elite quarterbacks he is compared to, such as Cam Newton, Jalen Hurts, Deshaun Watson, and Trey Lance, even though those quarterbacks had better talent surrounding them. Among all college quarterbacks with 250+ throws, Richardson ranked the second-worst in accuracy on throws of 10 yards or less. His accuracy in high school wasn't any better, and he tended to hold onto the ball longer than most college quarterbacks.
Nevertheless, Richardson’s performances against Tennessee and Utah showcased his ability to dominate games with his raw talent. AR15’s college statistical profile also surpasses that of Josh Allen, who was worse than Richardson in nearly every statistical category at Wyoming.
Allen remains the gold standard for big athletes who want to improve their mechanics and accuracy, but it's important to remember that it was a gradual process for Allen as he adjusted to the NFL. Expect Richardson to face similar challenges early in his career, although his rushing ability could easily make him a QB1 by mid-season.
Projected Stats (16 Starts): 55.3 percent completion rate, 2998 passing yards, 17 passing touchdowns, and 20 total turnovers. 149 rush attempts for 798 yards and 11 rushing touchdowns.
Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers
One could argue that Bryce Young is the exact opposite of Anthony Richardson. While Richardson is a raw athlete with a fair amount of upside and risk, Young is the epitome of a pure passer with very little risk baked in. Richardson struggles with accuracy and knowing where to go with the ball, but Young excels at ball placement, processing, and avoiding pressure while maintaining focus downfield. It almost feels like the two could not be more different, which is both an advantage and disadvantage for Young when determining his fantasy value.
One advantage is that the Alabama product is a safer investment than Richardson. In our model, Young's college profile compares favorably to Drew Brees. While Brees had less talent around him in college, he and Young shared similar physical attributes, testing numbers, and film. Both excelled in terms of ball placement, accuracy, and decision-making. Although they were both limited in terms of athleticism, they compensated with creativity. Young's playmaker skill set gives him a high fantasy floor given he can stay healthy like he did in college.
Young's potential downside is that he might have already reached his physical peak. His production is expected to increase in future seasons when Carolina improves the talent around him and he continues to grow as a passer and processor. Nevertheless, Young is unlikely to provide the rushing production of Josh Allen or the arm strength of Patrick Mahomes.
Expect Young to easily ascend to a QB2-caliber fantasy asset within a year or two. However, his ceiling projects to be a mid-tier QB1 who will need some help from his receivers to rack up stats.
Projected Stats (17 Starts): 62.8 percent completion rate, 3,778 passing yards, 21 passing touchdowns, and 11 turnovers. 68 rush attempts for 258 yards and one rushing touchdown.
C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans
C.J. Stroud is the third quarterback on this list because he is a blend of the two quarterbacks ranked ahead of him. Managers chasing fantasy upside might gravitate toward Richardson, while those looking for security will likely choose Young. Stroud, however, is somewhere in the middle.
He is not the safest prospect in his class, nor the one with the highest upside, but he has a higher floor than Richardson and more upside than Young. This upside was on display when the OSU alum used his legs efficiently against Georgia.
As a rookie, Stroud will face a significant challenge that many Ohio State quarterbacks encounter when transitioning to the pros: adjusting to the speed and scheme of the NFL. Justin Fields was an accurate and productive passer at OSU like Stroud, but Fields has yet to find success in those areas in the NFL.
While Stroud is more polished than Fields, Stroud’s low score of 18 on the S2 cognitive test (compared to a score of 80+ that most stars receive) raises another red flag about how he will develop away from Ryan Day’s offense.
Aside from the new Texan’s college scheme, fans should also be concerned about the lack of weapons he will have as a rookie. To put it bluntly, the Texans’ receiving corps is one of the worst in the league. Their top pass catchers are Dalton Schultz, Nico Collins, John Metchie, Robert Woods, and Tank Dell. Collins has yet to break out, Woods is past his prime, and Metchie’s health concerns remain an issue. While Dell’s potential is greater than his size, Stroud’s weapons don’t inspire confidence for 2023.
Projected Stats (17 Starts): 63.6 percent completion rate, 3,569 passing yards, 18 passing touchdowns, and 13 interceptions. 60 rush attempts for 291 yards and three rushing touchdowns.
Will Levis, Tennessee Titans
Expectations for Will Levis may be a tad low, especially in dynasty leagues. Right now, most fantasy analysts and dynasty managers are taking Kenny Pickett more than two rounds earlier than Levis. This is even though Levis has a much more intriguing set of physical skills.
Levis has a bigger arm than Pickett, a larger frame to sustain hits, he is younger, and they both have comparable mobility. While Pickett has more immediate value and a better offense around him, Levis is much more intriguing for long-term leagues.
That being said, this article is about projecting production in 2023, and Levis doesn't figure to have much of that. Barring an injury to Ryan Tannehill, the Kentucky product isn’t expected to start this year. However, we should not discount the possibility that Tannehill either gets injured or loses enough games that the Titans want to see what Levis has to offer late in the season. With the Jaguars poised to lead the AFC South and the Titans trailing behind half the AFC in talent, they would be wise to test their rookie quarterback by Week 15.
If Levis does see the field, he has his work cut out for him. The former Wildcat struggled with accuracy and injuries last year. Now, he joins a Titans squad with exactly one noteworthy WR and an offensive line that ranked the fourth-worst in sacks allowed and Adjusted Sack Rate in 2022.
This offense also remains one of the most run-heavy in the league, which should rob Levis of volume. For those reasons, expect a slow start to the Penn State transfer’s career, even if the physical tools are worth gambling on in dynasty leagues.
Projected Stats (Four Starts): 57.8 percent completion rate, 797 passing yards, five passing touchdowns, and seven interceptions. 17 rush attempts for 65 yards and one rushing touchdown.
Hendon Hooker, Detroit Lions
This one is easy. Hendon Hooker is still recovering from a serious knee injury, and the Lions have said they will bring him along slowly. Everything indicates that this will be a redshirt year for the former Tennessee Volunteer, and that was expected even when some of us bought into the hype that a team would reach for him in the first round of the NFL Draft.
Hooker still has some work to do for an older player, and he's not expected to be ready for camp this year. With Jared Goff capable of leading a talented Detroit offense, there's no reason to expect this rookie to play until 2024 or later.
As for dynasty, Hooker remains a fine second-round stash in rookie drafts. His age is noteworthy when considering the length of time he might help your fantasy team, but he could always step into an extremely dangerous offense if the Lions prefer him over Goff next year. I'd put that potential at around 35%, but that might be enough of a chance for dynasty owners to consider investing moderate draft capital in Hooker.
Projected Stats (0 Starts): N/A
Stetson Bennett, Los Angeles Rams
The likelihood of anyone rostering Stetson Bennett in anything but a deep Superflex dynasty league is low. His physical tools have never stood out, and there are reports that some teams didn't like his attitude. However, with Matthew Stafford getting older and having dealt with injuries throughout his career, it would be unwise to expect him to play every game this season. Bennett is the next man up if Stafford misses time.
As a prospect, Bennett is projected to have a career similar to Chase Daniel. He’s extremely confident, experienced, and an intelligent player. However, he lacks the physical tools that most NFL starters possess. Those expecting him to be the next Brock Purdy should remember that surprises like the Iowa State product are rare and that Purdy had a far better team around him.
While Bennett might be worth a QB2 flyer late in the season, especially for Superflex teams in desperate need of help after losing two starters, expectations should be tempered.
Projected Stats (Two Starts): 60.3 percent completion rate, 409 passing yards, two passing touchdowns, and three interceptions. 20 rush attempts for 75 yards.
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