January 8, 2026

Toronto Blue Jays first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been a reliable high-end first baseman since his breakout campaign in 2021. Entering 2025, Guerrero saw his fantasy stock increasing as he launched 30 home runs with a .323 AVG the previous summer and appeared to be returning to his near-MVP form. However, in 2025, despite the Blue Jays marching to the World Series, Guerrero took a step back but remained a top first baseman, finishing fifth at the position in standard leagues. Through 156 games, the former top prospect posted a .292/.381/.467 line with just 23 home runs. His 23 home runs mark the lowest total since 2021. He also tallied just 84 RBI (lowest in a full 162-game season) but remained a high contributor in runs, scoring 96 times. While his .305 xBA remained elite (100th percentile), his power metrics cause some concern heading into 2026. Guerrero saw his hard-hit rate drop nearly five points compared to 2024 (54.9% - 50.7%) and his average exit velocity fall to 92.0 mph, his lowest in a full season. While his hard-hit rate was still significantly above average, managers expecting another 30+ HR campaign should temper expectations. While he remains a high-end asset for batting average and counting stats at his position, Guerrero projects to sit near the mid-20s for HRs once again, given his drop in power metrics, which makes his 19.8 ADP on NFBC feel as if you are drafting for his best outcome, rather than a floor output.--Andy Smith