RADIO
Joe Nicely digs into his Horse for the Course for The Players Championship, an under the radar PGA DFS selection for this week's DraftKings tournament.
This week is the PGA Tour's "Fifth Major", The Players Championship. The field is stacked with the world's top golfers and this is a tournament that all of them want to win. We will travel down to Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida this week for what should be an amazing tournament. We have seen an eclectic mix of winners over the years at The Players. The course demands quality play from tee to green. Players will need a solid overall game in order to compete for the title. DFS players will find the best selection of game offerings since The Masters on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Horse For The Course will take a look at players that have traditionally flourished at the course that hosts this week’s PGA TOUR event. This is not a traditional picks column, but rather an attempt to pinpoint players that have outstanding results at a specific course. "The Horse" is a player with an elite course history and that has a great chance to repeat his success in this week's tournament. "The Ponies" are players with very good course history, that might be entering this week's tournament under the radar or have a DFS price that is a great value.
For a full review of the DraftKings PGA Slate this weekend, check out Seth Finklestein's column reviewing picks at every price point.
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The Course: TPC Sawgrass-The Players Stadium Course, Par 72, 7,189 Yards
The Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass was built in 1982 with the purpose of hosting and being the permanent home of The Players Championship. It was the first true "Stadium Course" and was designed with the on-site spectators in mind. We have years of course history to evaluate for this tournament, but the course doesn't really lend itself to one specific style of play. Course architect Pete Dye tried to strike a balanced note with The Stadium Course, blending short, medium, and long distances between Par 3's, 4's, and 5's. We are able to identify players that have had noticeable success at TPC and other Dye-designed courses. The Stadium Course is home to one the most famous holes in golf, the Par-3 17th "Island Green" and usually makes for dramatic Sunday finishes.
The Horse
Franceso Molinari (DraftKings - $8,100 & FanDuel - $9,500 )
It is hard to find golfers with consistent results at The Players Championship, but Francesco Molinari's finishes at TPC Sawgrass are impressive. Molinari has logged four Top-10's in The Players Championship since 2010. His recent appearances resulted in a T-6 in 2017, a T-7 in 2016, and a T-6 in 2014. Molinari wasn't in the field in 2015 and did have missed cuts in 2012 and 2013, but managed a tie for 9th all the way back in 2010.
Molinari's success at TPC Sawgrass can largely be attributed to his excellent tee-to-green game. The Italian has long been considered one of the game's premier ball strikers and a look at his stats from 2018 support this theory. Molinari ranks 7th on the PGA Tour in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green, a stat that gives us an important look at a player's overall game. He also ranks 3rd in SG: Off the Tee and 48th in SG: Approach the Green. The knock on Molinari is and has always been his dismal putting. He currently ranks a horrendous 204th in SG: Putting for 2018, but the silver lining is we have seen "bad" putters have success at TPC Sawgrass. Players like Sergio Garcia, Adam Scott, and last year's winner Si-Woo Kim have all had well documented problems with the flatstick and have won The Players Championship.
Another reason for DFS players to love Franceso Molinari this week... he's trending upward. After stuggling a bit at the start of the season, Molinari has played his best golf over the past 6 weeks. He had back to back Top-25's at the WGC-Mexico and the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He then logged a tie for 20th at the Masters and had a nice 16th place finish at last week's Wells Fargo Championship. We find his price slightly elevated this week at $8,100 on DraftKings. Even with his solid course history, DFS fans should be able to grab Molinari at reasonable ownership this week due to his higher than normal price tag and the quality of the players available at cheaper price points. I love Molinari's track record at TPC Sawgrass and his current form. I will be using him liberally in GPP lineups.
The Ponies
Hideki Matsuyama (DK - $8,500 & FD - $10,500 )
Hideki Matsuyama comes into this week's Players Championship in an unusual position for him...he has been struggling with his game. Since suffering a wrist injury at the Waste Mangement Phoenix Open in February, Matsuyama has missed multiple tournaments and hasn't been able to regain the form that we expect from him since returning to action. The young Japanese star finished 49th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational in his first start since the injury, then grinded out a solid 19th at the Masters a month ago. DFS fans saw him struggle at Quail Hollow last week, finishing in 76th place with an MDF. This type of play is uncharted territory for the normally rock-solid Matsuyama.
While we have to be slightly concerned with his current form, TPC Sawgrass is the perfect bounceback spot for Matsuyama. In four career appearances at The Players Championship since 2014, Matsuyama has never finished outside of the Top-25. He logged a T-22 at TPC Sawgrass last year and a T-7 in 2016, to go with a T-17 in 2015 and a T-23 in 2014. It's hard to argue with this type of consistency at The Player's and this could very well be the venue that Matsuyama gets back on track.
He fits the profile of players that have had success at TPC Sawgrass; a great ball striker that struggles on the greens. DFS players are receiving a large discount this week with Matsuyama's $8,500 DraftKings price tag. There are times in fantasy sports that we must choose which variables to value and which to ignore. While Matsuyama's injury and recent play might make us apprehensive about using him in lineups, I feel that his value and potential upside outweigh the risks in large field GPPs.
Zach Johnson (DK - $7,500 & FD - $10,100 )
In honor of the fifth major this week, I decided to add a Bonus Pony. It is hard to ignore Zach Johnson's record at TPC Sawgrass. In 13 career starts at The Players Championship, Johnson has made 12 cuts, with a tournament-best 2nd place finish in 2012.
We have to love Johnson's trajectory in 2018. After a somewhat sluggish start, we have seen him flash a couple of time in the last few weeks. Johnson played solid in both the Valspar Championship and Arnold Palmer Invitational on tough golf courses, finishing T-16 and T-26 respectively. He then put together a solid, if unspectacular, week at The Masters with a T-36 finish. Things really came together for Johnson at the Valero Texas Open a couple of weeks ago when he notched a T-5 and had a real chance to win entering the final round.
The two-time major champion can handle the stress that TPC Sawgrass puts on players. His approach game and ability to scramble around the greens will continue to serve him well this week. Johnson is an underpriced bargain on DraftKings at $7,400. He will be a popular option at that price, but is worthy of cash game lineups.
Chris Kirk (DK - $7,200 & FD - $8,300 )
Let's do a little bargain shopping for our final selection this week. Chris Kirk is not a name that immediately comes to mind when filling out lineups, but his recent course history at TPC Sawgrass warrants our consideration this week. While Kirk struggled early in his career in The Players Championship, he seems to have figured out the Pete Dye track in his last few trips. Beginning in 2014, Kirk has rattled of three straight Top-15 finishes at The Players. Despite a W/D in 2016, Kirk has impressive results at TPC Sawgrass over the last four years; T-13's in both 2014 and 2015 and a T-12 last year.
Kirk has had some nice results during the 2018 PGA Tour season. He recently notched his third Top-10 of the season at the Valero Texas Open. His ball striking is solid, he ranks 37th on the PGA Tour in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green. Kirks strength is his iron game, he is 26th in SG: Approach the Green and 31st in Proximity to the Hole. As with our other selections of the week, Kirk falls short in the putting category, ranking 125th in SG: Putting in 2018.
No player in the $7,200 price range is going to be without flaws and Kirk definitely has some shortcomings on the greens. However, at this price we are willing to make some sacrifices in order to gain upside. As evidenced by his four previous trips to TPC Sawgrass, Kirk offers Top-15 potential at a very affordable DraftKings price. I never like to get too carried away with value players, but for those DFS players that build multiple lineups, Kirk is a terrific option to include in your player pool. He offers the upside and low ownership that can help win a DFS tournament this week.
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