RADIO
Joe Nicely digs into his Horse for the Course for the Forth Worth Invitational, an under the radar PGA DFS selection for this week's DraftKings tournament.
Hello and welcome back to Horse For The Course! There are some major differences between last week's tournament and this week's Forth Worth Invitational. We go from one of the weakest fields we've seen recently at last week's AT&T Byron Nelson to a very strong group of players at this week's star-studded event. Four of the top 10 and 13 of the top 30 players in the current world rankings will be in action this week. Last week at Trinity Forest Golf Club, we had absolutely zero course history to draw from, whereas this week's host course, Colonial Country Club, offers all the course history we could ever dream of, as it has been on the PGA Tour schedule since 1946.
Horse For The Course will take a look at players that have traditionally flourished at the course that hosts this week’s PGA TOUR event. This is not a traditional picks column, but rather an attempt to pinpoint players that have outstanding results at a specific course. "The Horse" is a player with an elite course history and that has a great chance to repeat his success in this week's tournament. "The Ponies" are players with very good course history, that might be entering this week's tournament under the radar or have a DFS price that is a great value.
For a full review of the DraftKings PGA Slate this weekend, check out Seth Finklestein's column reviewing picks at every price point.
Editor's Note: Our friends at Fantasy National have built some incredible DFS Golf lineup tools including a Lineup Optimizer, Stat Engine, Ownership Projections and Course Breakdowns. They are by far the best daily fantasy Golf tools in the industry. Seriously. You can read all about them here and see screenshots.
The Course: Colonial Country Club - Par 70 - 7,209 Yards
Colonial is one of the game's grand old courses. Only Augusta National has served as a tournament host for a longer tenure. Designed in 1938, it still offers the professional golfer of the modern age a significant challenge. Colonial is a shotmaker's paradise, the fairways are tight and the course has several doglegs. Long hitters will not be able to overpower this golf course. Past champions are a who's who of great ballstrikers. While Colonial produces consistent results for many players, it will be very difficult for the defending champion Kevin Kisner to repeat...it hasn't been done since the great Ben Hogan went back-to-back in 1952-53. Perhaps more than any course we will see this season, Colonial demands precision shot-making and elite ballstriking.
The Horse
Zach Johnson (DraftKings - $8,500 & FanDuel - $10,800 )
Let me quickly preface this week's horse by acknowledging Jordan Spieth. He is obviously an elite talent and he owns a wonderful track record at Colonial. I feel that most readers don't need me to make them aware of Jordan Spieth, so I've elected to spend time on somewhat lesser-known players this week. By all means, if Spieth works in your lineups, play him.
Ok, now that we have that out of the way, let's move on to this week's horse, Zach Johnson. The two-time major winner has an unbelievably impressive history at Colonial Country Club. Johnson has made the cut in all 12 of his career appearances at Colonial. He has won this tournament twice, in 2010 and 2012. In addition to the victories, Johnson has three Top-5 finishes; a 4th in 2011, 3rd in 2013, and a T-3 in 2014. He also owns the tournament record of 21-under par, which he logged on the way to victory in 2010.
Johnson's key to success at Colonial is no big secret...he hits fairways and greens. The 42-year-old has made a very nice living throughout his career by being accurate off the tee and a master iron player. He currently ranks 18th on the PGA Tour in Strokes Gained: Approach The Green and 1st in proximity to the hole. This skill set is where Colonial demands excellence and this has led to Johnson thriving on the classic layout. Johnson has had a solid 2018, making the cut in all nine tournaments he's played this calendar year. He did suffer an MDF at The Players Championship, but I'm not very concerned, TPC Sawgrass can stump great players from time to time. I expect to see Johnson in form similar to his 5th place finish at the Valero Texas Open, another course where he has had tremendous success.
Both DFS sites have priced Johnson up this week. He sits at $10,800 on FanDuel and at $8,500 on DraftKings. The DK price is about $1,000 higher than we have normally seen Johnson this year. The increase is almost entirely due to his excellent course history. One positive of the price increase is that it might make some DFS players pump the brakes on Johnson. I do expect him to be extremely popular and garner large ownership. He is a great place to start when building both cash game and GPP lineups, but we must be prepared to eat the chalk on him this week. This might be the spot that Johnson picks up his 13th career PGA Tour win, but we would be very content with a Top-10 at his price tag.
The Ponies
Steve Stricker (DK - $7,900 & FD - $9,300 )
Let's talk about "Mr. Excitement", Steve Stricker. Ok, I know Stricker isn't very exciting, but his course history sure is. The long-time PGA Tour veteran won what was then called the Crowne Plaza Invitational at Colonial in 2009 and has had a string of Top-25's at Colonial throughout his career. For all you readers thinking Stricker is too old, let me remind you that he finished tied for 7th in this tournament just last year. Despite his age, Stricker has played very well in limited PGA Tour appearances this year. He finished 26th at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, 12th at the Valspar Championship on a very tough golf course, and 23rd at The Players Championship just two weeks ago. In addition to those solid finishes, he has been flat-out dominant on the PGA Champions Tour in 2018, picking up two wins and five Top-5's in his only five starts!
This is the perfect situation to target a player like Stricker. Colonial doesn't require players to bomb drivers and reach Par-5's in two. Instead, it plays into Stricker's strengths; ballstriking, accuracy off the tee, and hitting greens in regulation. At his price points on both DK and FD, Stricker should be a staple in your cash game lineups this week. His ownership in some recent GPP tournaments has been somewhat high, but he is a very consistent option at $7,900. I will be all-in on the veteran in cash games this week and will have lots of exposure in GPPs.
Chris Kirk (DK - $7,600 & FD - $9,200 )
Zach Johnson is this week's horse and has course history that is second to none, but Chris Kirk might be my favorite play this week. I recently included "Captain Kirk" in The Players Championship edition of this piece and I'm going back to the well this week. Kirk's history at Colonial is even more impressive than at TPC Sawgrass. He won this tournament in 2015 and has excellent results stretching back to 2011. In addition to the win in 2015, Kirk had a Top-5 in 2012 and has three Top-20 finishes since 2011. His worst performance at Colonial came last year, a T-67 when he was struggling with his game.
Kirk has all the tools that equal success at Colonial. A peek into his 2018 stats confirm that he should be ready to make another run at a title in Texas; he ranks 22nd in Strokes Gained: Approach The Green, 20th in Proximity to the Hole, and 31st in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green. His struggles usually occur when he is forced to attempt to bomb the driver, that shouldn't be an issue this week. Putting is often a weakness for Kirk, but putting is such a streaky issue for so many pro golfers that I'm always reluctant to try and speculate on how a player will be rolling the ball any given week.
Despite Kirk's solid play this season, he comes at the bargain basement price of $7,600 on DraftKings this week. His price has increased $400 from The Players Championship, but I'm more than willing to eat that small dent in salary this week. Kirk is not without some volatility, he has been plagued with some stretches of horrible play throughout his career. I don't expect that to be the case this week, but I do believe Kirk is best suited for large-field GPPs this week. I will have lots of Kirk shares in play on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Rory Sabbatini (DK - $7,600 & FD - $9,100 )
For those of you that feel like gambling a bit this week, let's take a look at Rory Sabbatini. Sabbatini's course history is not as consistent as some of our other selections, but his recent form and upside at Colonial make him a player that we need to take a look at this week. His track record at Colonial is a roller coaster; a win in 2007, followed by a missed cut in 2008, T-34 in 2009, T-69 in 2010, T-16 2011, T-47 2012, missed cuts in 2013 & 2014, a T-10 in 2015, and a missed cut last year. I told you...a roller coaster.
While Sabbatini's course history is volatile, he makes the list this week because he's quietly played elite-level golf over the past few months. The South African first popped up back in February with a 17th place finish at the Honda Classic and promptly followed that with a 5th place finish at the Valspar Championship in March. Since that time, he has logged four consecutive Top-30 finishes in his last four tournaments, including a T-13 at last week's AT&T Byron Nelson.
Another reason Sabbatini found his way to this week's list is his shockingly low price tag. At $7,600 on DraftKings, there are 31 players priced higher than Sabbatini this week! For this price, I'm more than willing to take my chances with a guy that has shown he can win at Colonial and has finished T-30 or better in four consecutive PGA Tour events. I'm frankly shocked that Sabbatini's price has decreased $1,000 since last week's tournament in which he exceeded salary expectations for his $8,600 price tag! He is a streaky player that comes with the risk of a missed cut, but I will be riding the hot hand in GPPs this week. Sabbatini is a very viable play in large field tournaments.
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