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Welcome to the latest edition of the PGA DFS Hole-By-Hole Breakdown, where Josh Bennett (@JishSwish) breaks down the course the PGA Tour is playing each week. We think this course breakdown is an important slice of the "PGA DFS pie" and will help change the way you do your research for every tournament. A good understanding of the course that's being played is extremely important before diving into individual players. Each week, this article will give you everything you need to know about the course, strategies players could take, and statistics that fit the specifics of the layout.
This week's Breakdown features Harbour Town Golf Links for the PGA Tour's RBC Heritage. They'll need to keep the ball in the fairway this week if they want to have any shot at winning this event. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!
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Harbour Town Golf Links: Par 71, 7213 Yards
Hole 1: Par 4, 410 Yards
Off the Tee: This is a difficult opening tee shot mostly made difficult by the trees. We won't see too many drivers used here because the fairway runs out at about 295 yards, plus the farther down they get, the more issues the trees are. We should see many lay up to 275 yards or so, which means a hybrid or fairway wood for most of the field. Hitting the fairway is a must on this hole if they want any chance at a par.
Approach: Assuming the tee shot is near the middle of the fairway, a short iron or wedge into one of many small greens. The green is protected by a large bunker on the left side, but with short irons and wedges that bunker shouldn't be in play. This is a good chance to start off the round with a birdie after a good opening tee shot. Green Size: 20x20 yards
Advantage: Distance from Center of Fairway, SG: Approach, Par 4 Scoring
Hole 2: Par 5, 550 Yards
Off The Tee: Although this is a par 5, we again will not see many drivers hit by average-length guys or better. The fairway gets extremely narrowed by trees at about 280 yards. This hole is short for a par 5, so hitting a fairway wood off the tee is not a big deal and will still give most of the field a chance to get to the green in two.
Approach: A fairway wood into this green is likely, assuming they don't take on the narrow fairway off the tee. The trees open up just before the green, so there is plenty of room to go for it and miss. There will be a lot of missing, too, given there is almost no depth to the green, it's just very wide. Solid short game players that get the ball around the green in two will give themselves great looks at birdie. Green Size: 30x10 yards
Advantage: SG: Around the Green, Par 5 Scoring
Hole 3: Par 4, 469 Yards
Off the Tee: Overhanging trees are an issue on this course, and while satellite images don't always do it justice, it is painfully obvious in this one image how big of a problem they are. You can see the shadows of the branches in some parts stretch across the whole fairway. Obviously the limbs don't stretch that far, but it's a good visual to prove that they are large enough and hang enough to be in the way. The tee shot here has almost no room for error and there is no laying up off this tee due to the length of the hole. This ball has to go straight or they're going to be scrambling to get the ball to the green in hopes of a bogey.
Approach: With a good tee shot, the approach will be with a mid-iron. The green is surprisingly decent in size, but has bunkers on all sides for defense, except the back. A GIR on this hole and walking away with a par is plenty good. Green Size: 30x20 yards
Advantage: Driving Accuracy, GIR, Scrambling
Hole 4: Par 3, 200 Yards
Approach: From one difficult hole to the next, this one is an intimidating tee shot that will have to carry water the entire length of the ball flight. Water protects the left side of the green, and there are bunkers in the back. Expect to see many bail-outs to the right side, especially since they will have longer irons in their hands. Green Size: 25x20 Yards
Advantage: GIR, Scrambling
Hole 5: Par 5, 569 Yards
Off the Tee: This is the easiest hole on the course, likely because it might be one of the easiest tee shots on the course. As long as they keep the ball a little left, they avoid any trees, which is rare for this course. A really big hook from a right handed player would be the only worry with the water. Fairway may not be found off the tee, but there is plenty of open space to take a shot towards the green as long as the tee shot stays left of the trees.
Approach: A fairway wood is likely used towards this very small green. GIR may be easy to come by, but not likely from the second shot. The green is small and has a large bunker protecting the whole left side. We should see much of the field chipping onto the green for their GIR from the right side of the green. Similar to the last par 5, it will take a good short game to get the ball close for a scoring opportunity. Green Size: 10x25 Yards
Advantage: Ball-Striking, SG: Around the Green, Par 5 Scoring
Hole 6: Par 4, 419 Yards
Off the Tee: This is another tee shot that requires accuracy, and those that are not accurate could elect to lay back off the tee to assist with that since it is not a very long hole. The hole bends to the right, so a ball that goes a little right can cut off some of the hole and make the approach that much shorter as well.
Approach: Depending on how far right the drive goes (in play), they could use anything from a wedge to a mid-iron into this green. It's another narrow green, so having a close approach is important if they want any chance at scoring. The green is protected on the left and right sides by bunkers. Rare for a green played on the PGA, the entire front of the green is open and could be used to roll balls up on the green from those that approach from longer distances as well. Green Size: 10x30 Yards
Advantage: Driving Accuracy, SG: Approach, Par 4 Scoring
Hole 7: Par 3, 217 Yards
Approach: Another long par 3 over water, except this one is not nearly as dangerous. Protecting the green on all sides, instead of water this time, is one large bunker. It would be impressive to go all four rounds this weekend and not play out of this bunker at least once. Short game, especially bunker play, will be key to keeping bogey off the scorecard here. Green Size: 15x30 Yards
Advantage: GIR, Scrambling, Bunker Saves
Hole 8: Par 4, 473 Yards
Off The Tee: Another difficult hole on this front 9 made mostly difficult by it's length and green size. The tee shot has to be mostly accurate, but there is some room to miss as long as it's not wild.
Approach: A mid or long-iron approach into this very narrow green protected by a bunker along the left side. It will be hard to hit this green because of how far away the approaches will be coming from. Short games will be on display here, likely from the right side of this green. Green Size: 10x30 Yards
Advantage: Ball-Striking, GIR, Scrambling
Hole 9: Par 4, 332 Yards
Off the Tee: It's very unlikely to see anyone hitting driver off this tee. The fairway is very narrow, and the front of the green is protected by a bunker even if they wanted to go for it. Irons and hybrids will be hit off this tee to leave wedge approaches in.
Approach: The whole field will have approaches with wedges. The bunker in the front will not be in play, and the bunkers that cut the middle of the green off shouldn't be in play either. This should be a birdie hole for the whole field. Green Size: 15x25 Yards
Advantage: SG: Approach, Par 4 Scoring
Hole 10: Par 4, 451 Yards
Off the Tee: It only took ten holes, but they finally get one where there's room to miss or bail out and not be penalized. A miss right is OK and will be preferred, obviously, because of the water on the left.
Approach: A mid-iron approach to another narrow green. This one is protected on the right side by one large bunker and one small one. The approach is a little shorter than the last hole, but because the green is so narrow, we will see a lot of missed GIR's. Short games will be on display once again. Green Size: 10x35 Yards
Advantage: Ball-Striking, GIR, SG: Approach, Scrambling
Hole 11: Par 4, 436 Yards
Off the Tee: They had their chance on the last hole to miss the fairway if they wanted, and now it's back to needing accuracy off the tee. Some may choose to lay up to find the meat of the fairway, but they'll be penalized with a longer approach to yet another narrow green. A left or right miss will either be in the trees or blocked by the trees.
Approach: A short or mid-iron approach to another narrow green. Unlike the others, this one is protected on both sides by bunkers. However, the front and back are open to miss, so as long as the left or right miss is put away on this hole, they'll be alright. Green Size: 15x30 Yards
Advantage: Driving Accuracy, SG: Approach, Scrambling, Bunker Saves
Hole 12: Par 4, 430 Yards
Off the Tee: They get a little extra room to breathe here compared to the last tee shot, but not much. The ideal angle to the green is from the left side of the fairway so the trees on the right side are not in the way of the approach. However, there is not enough room to move the target to the left side of the fairway, that will bring all the trees on that side of the hole very much into play.
Approach: A short-iron approach is all that should be left to this green, although it could be a little longer if the tee shot falls left. The green is awkwardly-shaped, and has bunkers on the front-left and front-right. From the angle they'll be playing from, once again the landing area is pretty narrow. The good news is, the approach is much shorter than other holes, so GIR shouldn't be as difficult. Green Size: 10x25 Yards
Advantage: Driving Accuracy, Ball-Striking, SG: Approach, Scrambling, Par 4 Scoring
Hole 13: Par 4, 373 Yards
Off The Tee: They get a break from the tough tee shots here. Driver is not in play no matter who they are or how much power they have. They will have to lay up behind the bunker on the right with whatever club gets them there. Longer players will likely be a long iron, others will hit fairway woods.
Approach: The whole field should have wedges into this green that is generous in size compared to the ones before it. It has a large bunker guarding the front of the green, but it should be rare that these guys play out of it with wedges in hand. This should be a scoring hole for the field. Green Size: 15x20 Yards
Advantage: SG: Approach, Par 4 Scoring
Hole 14: Par 3, 192 Yards
Approach: They didn't make any of these long par 3's very inviting, did they? This one, like the others, has a tee shot that has to carry water most of the ball flight. On this one, the water is the hole's only protection and is on the right side. Surprisingly, there are no bunkers in play (except for a very long and left miss to a tiny bunker). A GIR and a two putt is just fine here. Green Size: 15x30 Yards
Advantage: GIR, Scrambling
Hole 15: Par 5, 588 Yards
Off the Tee: On this long par 5, they will be playing this hole in three shots. Even with a perfect shot down the fairway, they will have trees to contend with on a very long approach to the green. Some may even elect to lay up on this hole knowing it's going to be three shots regardless.
Approach: Most of the field will likely lay up on their second shots, so they'll have wedges into the green. This is one of the largest greens on the course, with some small and thin bunkers on the front-left and front-right sides. As long as the first two shots are safe, this will be a scoring hole from close range for the field. Green Size: 20x25 Yards
Advantage: Ball-Striking, SG: Approach, Par 5 Scoring
Hole 16: Par 4, 434 Yards
Off The Tee: Coming down the stretch, they have made the tee shots easier. This one is wide open, and they'll want to avoid the fairway bunker on the left. Hugging that fairway bunker will allow for a shorter approach in, but the approach should be short regardless of where the tee shot ends up.
Approach: A wedge should be all that's needed from the whole field. The green is small, but shouldn't be difficult to hit with wedges. It's protected on the right side by a bunker, and the very front-left corner by the extended fairway bunker. Green Size: 15x25 Yards
Advantage: Ball-Striking, SG: Approach, Par 4 Scoring
Hole 17: Par 3, 198 Yards
Approach: The final par 3 of the day and it's similar to the other ones. Water is in the view on the left, along with the bunker spanning the whole left side of the green. There is another bunker protecting the front-right. Short game and bunker play will be on display once again on this hole. Green Size: 10x30 Yards
Advantage: GIR, Scrambling, Sand Saves
Hole 18: Par 4, 472 Yards
Off the Tee: They end the round with the hardest hole on the course. However, it's not the tee shot that's difficult. The landing area is huge and almost impossible to miss. Rip the driver and see what they have left is the play here.
Approach: The approach is what makes this hole difficult. It's long and headed towards a small green. What's worse is that the front and back are protected by bunkers, and if they go left it's in the water. We will see bail outs to the right and watch the short game work as we have for the previous 17 holes. Green Size: 15x20 Yards
Advantage: Ball-Striking, GIR, Scrambling
Conclusions
Accuracy off the tee is the most important part of the tournament. Any tee shot off line will be in the trees or have trees blocking the view. Bombers cannot cut corners, everyone needs to be straight off the tee.
The greens are small and approaches will end up coming from longer distances. Therefore, a lot of greens will be missed and short games will be on display. Whether you prefer the Scrambling stat or the SG: Around the Green stat, you should use one or both of them in models this week.
Good Ball-Strikers and those that gain strokes on Approach should be able to keep themselves in contention when they get the opportunity after good drives. However, that is very much dependent on a safe drive.
Other stats to consider: Par 4 Scoring, GIR, Bogey Avoidance, Sand Saves, Par 5 Scoring
Assumptions
Images and measurements were done on Google Earth. These satellite images can sometimes be up to five or more years old and not show very recent changes to courses if there were any.
Carry distance is used for off-the-tee distances shown in the images. The average carry distance on tour in 2021 was 281 yards, so that is what is used here.
I used a total dispersion off-the-tee of 60 yards. This comes from an article that Jon Sherman wrote for Practical Golf (@practicalgolf) discussing average dispersion, and I took 5-10 yards off from that number.
I assumed a 10-15 yard roll out from the carry distance to start the measurement to the green. Measurements to the green were rounded to the nearest five yards and measured from the center of the fairway to the center of the green.
Green measurements were also measured to the nearest five yards.
Things like weather, rough length, elevation, etc. are not taken into consideration on the measurements. I can only see and assume so much from satellite images. However, I do note where possible on each hole if things like elevation and wind could impact how the hole plays.
Scorecard:
