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Week 17 Underdog NFL DFS prop picks for Thursday, December 28, 2023 by Tony Camino. Use his NFL over/under props recommendations to win money on Underdog.
Happy Thursday, RotoBallers! Welcome to our Underdog Fantasy NFL DFS prop picks for the game on Thursday, December 28, 2023. Welcome to our brand new NFL DFS series covering Underdog Fantasy contests! We will continue to focus on the NFL DFS props offered on Underdog called Higher/Lower (Over/Under).
Higher/Lower is traditional over/under DFS prop picks -- whether you think a player will score Over or Under the set lines, and choose your amount. You can parlay multiple picks together to vastly increase the juice (e.g., three picks = 6x your bet). Underdog Fantasy offers some of the industry's best and easiest-to-win NFL DFS games. At Underdog Fantasy, you're not playing against other people -- you're just playing against the projections.
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NFL DFS Props - Over/Under Picks for Thursday
Be sure also to check out our brand new Props Optimizer tool and the free PrizePicks DFS Props Tool to see more recommended picks.
Breece Hall, 14.5 Rushing Attempts (LOWER)
Breece Hall has been below this line in all but three games this season, with all three instances of exceeding it occurring against bottom-four defenses in DVOA. The highest number of rushing attempts he had in a loss was against the Chargers in Week 9 when the Jets ran 77 plays, the second-highest total they've had in a game this year. The Jets' team rushing line is set at 22.5 for today, and two of his three instances of surpassing this line occurred when the team ran it 30 or more times.
The Browns rank number one in DVOA against the rush this year and are allowing the ninth-fewest rushing attempts per game at just 24.6. Only two running backs this year have recorded at least 14 attempts against Cleveland: one came in a blowout debut for Dorian Thompson-Robinson, and the other was Travis Etienne. Hall has fallen short of this mark in six of the last eight games as an underdog, averaging just 11.5 attempts per game.
Joe Flacco, 36.5 Passing Attempts (HIGHER)
Joe Flacco has covered this line in all four starts with the Browns this year, throwing at least 42 times in every game, including a blowout in Week 16. The Browns' depleted offensive line has led them to struggle tremendously on the ground, resulting in more reliance on short passes to create favorable situations. Even dating back to his days with the Jets last year, he's surpassed this line in eight of the last nine games and nine of the last 12 as a favorite.
The Jets are allowing just 30.9 passing attempts per game, which ranks fifth-fewest in the NFL. While their pass defense ranks third in DVOA, this number is even more inflated because teams often play from ahead against the Jets. Dak Prescott, Josh Allen, and Jalen Hurts are the only quarterbacks to cover this line against the Jets this year, but no teams have faced injuries up front like the Browns have. The weather looks solid in Cleveland, and the Browns will likely continue to lean on the veteran signal-caller.
Amari Cooper, 57.5 Receiving Yards (HIGHER)
Amari Cooper has surpassed this mark in 60% of games this year, including each of the last three with Flacco at quarterback. He's averaging 8.5 targets per game this season, but that number has risen to 10.5 since Flacco took over. Cooper set a Browns' single-game record last week with 265 yards on 15 targets and has now had at least 14 targets in two of the last three games. Although Cooper is currently questionable with a heel injury, he expects to play. He has rested nearly every week of practice with a heel injury, so the questionable tag only comes from it being a short week.
The Jets' passing defense is very good, particularly against the pass, where they rank third in DVOA. Terry McLaurin finished with 50 yards a week ago, and Jaylen Waddle had 142 the week prior. Since Week 10, the Jets run only cover-three, cover-four, and man coverage, all of which Cooper averages at least two yards per route run. Last season against a similar Jets' pass defense, Cooper went for 101 yards on 10 targets. The lack of the Browns' run game should lead to a heavy dose of Flacco attempts, which bodes well for Cooper.
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