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Happy Thursday, RotoBallers! Welcome to our Underdog Fantasy NFL DFS prop picks for the game on Thursday, December 14, 2023. Welcome to our brand new NFL DFS series covering Underdog Fantasy contests! We will continue to focus on the NFL DFS props offered on Underdog called Higher/Lower (Over/Under).
Higher/Lower is traditional over/under DFS prop picks -- whether you think a player will score Over or Under the set lines, and choose your amount. You can parlay multiple picks together to vastly increase the juice (e.g., three picks = 6x your bet). Underdog Fantasy offers some of the industry's best and easiest-to-win NFL DFS games. At Underdog Fantasy, you're not playing against other people -- you're just playing against the projections.
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NFL DFS Props - Over/Under Picks for Thursday
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Austin Ekeler, 13.5 Rushing Attempts (HIGHER)
Los Angeles Chargers running back Austin Ekeler has covered this line in 70% of games this season, averaging 13.6 attempts per game. After successfully covering in the first six games of the year, Ekeler has achieved this only once in the last four games. The Chargers' team rushing attempt line is set at 25.5, and he has only missed meeting this line once this year when the team runs the ball at least 20 times.
In Week 15, the Chargers face the Raiders, who rank 26th in rushing attempts against this season. Ekeler has covered the line in three of the last four games against the Raiders, and seven of the last 10 running backs have had at least 13 attempts versus the Raiders. Keenan Allen (heel) and Justin Herbert (finger) are both out, emphasizing the need to get Ekeler the ball. Without Allen in 2022, the Chargers' running back had at least 13 attempts in every game where the team ran the ball more than 16 times.
Joshua Palmer, 34.5 Receiving Yards (HIGHER)
Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver Joshua Palmer has covered this line in four of the last five games he's played this year, but he's returning from a six-game absence due to a knee injury. Easton Stick will get the start and likely lower the ceiling of the Chargers' pass attack, but Palmer is set to be the number one option in the pass attack with Allen and Mike Williams (knee) out. The 24-year-old covered this line in three games without Allen in 2022, with 10 or more targets in two of the three games.
The Raiders rank 11th in receiving yards allowed to wide receivers this year, but six of the last seven teams have allowed at least three receivers to gain 30 or more yards. Palmer has recorded 60 or more yards in each of the last two games against the Raiders with eight or more targets in both games. He's poised to be the top target in his return and should see good volume to cover.
Aidan O'Connell, 29.5 Passing Attempts (HIGHER)
Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Aidan O'Connell has covered this line in four of six starts this year, including 39 attempts against the Chargers earlier this year in his debut start. The rookie averages 30 attempts per game and only missed covering against the Jets and Giants when the Raiders ran the ball 30 or more times in each game. Josh Jacobs' (quad) status is uncertain for the upcoming game, and without their workhorse, the Raiders are less likely to approach 30 rushing attempts.
The Chargers face the fourth-highest number of passing attempts this year, with opposing quarterbacks averaging 36.8 attempts per game. Their pass defense has been a weak point, ranking 28th in defensive drop-back success rate. If Jacobs is unable to play, the Raiders are expected to fare better by relying on the passing game and targeting the Chargers' vulnerable secondary. Notably, each of the last nine quarterbacks facing the Chargers has covered this line, with Jordan Love throwing 40 times in Week 11.
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