NFL Survivor Pool Picks (Week 5) - Targets and Avoids

October 6, 2021

Gambling expert Seth I. Finkelstein gives you his top NFL survivor pool picks for Week 5 of the 2021 NFL season and your 2021 survivor leagues.

You can't get a third down stop or fourth down stop without seeing some yellow laundry. It's an epidemic. I wrote about this last week and usually don't like to have the same lead two weeks in a row, but it's out of control. The referees don't stop calling holding and pass interference penalties. When you're rooting for a team, after they get an alleged stop, you can't celebrate because a flag is due to come. You need to hold your breath for three seconds before celebrating. Let them play.

It took three weeks before the underdogs started to come through. Chunks of entrants knocked out after the New York teams beat the Saints and Titans. But survivor doomsday did not happen with the Bengals and Bucs just getting by. Nearly all the other big favorites, Bills, Bengals, Chiefs, Cowboys won. But it was not all pretty. The Bengals came back from a 14-point deficit against the Jaguars and won on a last-second field goal. Imagine having the Ravens in Week 3 and taking the Bengals in Week 4. Both games ending on field goals. I had those teams, it's been a roller coaster.

All season long, I'll be bringing you weekly columns on teams to target and avoid each week. Strategy is a major part of winning this pool and this article will help you through the season. 

Survivor League Strategy

Not many entrants have been eliminated and the majority of entrants remain in most pools. I'm going to keep trying to save the best teams for later. When considering a certain team, check the schedule to see what are spots would be good to take them. And sometimes, it's nice to just take the best team and move on. Buffalo was a cakewalk against Houston this past Sunday.

Teams favored by 7+ in Week 5

Lines are consensus from The Action Network (home team in caps); BUCS -10.5 vs. Dolphins, Patriots -9.5 at TEXANS, VIKINGS -7.5 vs. Lions, COWBOYS -7 vs. Giants, and RAVENS -7 vs. Colts.

If you're reading this article on Thursday or later, know that these lines are from Tuesday. Check the current spreads and see how the line moved.

With gambling now legal for some of you, I'm going to be giving out my three top plays against the spread. They'll be at the bottom. I'll also be giving my predicted score for games written about.

Top Survivor Picks for Week 5

BUCS -10.5 vs. Dolphins

This is my most confident play but not the one I'll be making. I'd rather save Tampa for later in the season, possibly against the Bears in Week 7, Giants in Week 11, Colts in Week 12, or Jets in Week 17. A plethora of options. The only thing with this team; will they wake up for this game against an inferior opponent?

Bucs 34 - Dolphins 24

Taking a below average team off a game where they played their hearts on national television, but lost usually backfires the next week. The example I keep thinking of is the Raiders last year against the Chiefs on Sunday night. They took Kansas City to the wire, then were heavily bet the next week and were blown out in Atlanta.

However, Houston is one of the three-worst teams and they have an awful quarterback. In a game where they were down so much with tons of garbage time, Davis Mills couldn't even throw for more than 100 yards. He was 11 of 21 for 87 yards and four picks. That's a 0.8 QBR. And he played the whole game. Yikes. They're 29th in yards per play and have not scored a touchdown the last two games.

Bill Belichick always dominates rookies and this week will be no different with his defense that ranks fourth in opponent yards per play. I am weary of the Patriots offense and their non-existent running game. This is a team that's 25th in yards per play, and 31st in rushing yards per game. But this is the week to right the ship against a Texans defense that ranks 25th in yards per play. The only other option is to take New England in Week 17 at home against Jacksonville. I'm taking the Pats this week and saving the Bucs for later.

Patriots 24  - Texans 16

RAVENS -7 vs. Colts

Baltimore beats up on bad teams. This is a solid play if you didn't use them in Week 3 against Detroit. They can run the ball, play defense, and control the game. Carzon Wentz had his best game of the season, but he's still shaky. A little pressure from the Ravens will be his undoing.

Ravens 26 - Colts 14

COWBOYS -7 vs. Giants

Cowboys 30 - Giants 22

Top Survivor Picks to Avoid

VIKINGS -7.5 vs. Lions

How many times has Minnesota burned you in survivor? It's happened to me plenty and I've learned my lesson. Don't take Minnesota especially against a division opponent. The Lions are being viewed a lot worse than they actually are. Their first three drives Sunday in Chicago all went 10+ plays into the red zone before they turned it over. That would be the ballgame. However, Detroit has average stats (21st in yards per play, 19th in rushing, and 15th in passing). The Vikings defense had their best game this past week but more has to be seen more them.

Minnesota's offense is good and I'm a fan of Kirk Cousins, but if he's not on his game, they're going to lose. I don't trust him as a big favorite.

Lions 23 - Vikings 20

Titans -4 at JAGUARS

Jaguars 21 - Titans 20

CARDINALS -5.5 vs. 49ers

This has the making of a complete letdown from Arizona. The lone unbeaten team off a huge win against the Rams, a team they hadn't beaten in eight tries before Sunday. On the other side you have a Niners team reeling. Losers of two in a row and now possibly without starting quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. If he doesn't go, rookie Trey Lance will get the start. He looked over his head when he took over against Seattle. Now, he goes on the road in what will be a raucous environment.

Kyle Shannanhan has had the upper-hand against Kliff Kingsbury winning three of their four matchups. The last time they played was Dec. 26 when Arizona needed a win for the playoffs, the Niners were eliminated, but San Fran won 20-12. C.J. Beathard was under center for the 49ers. If Beathard can win, Trey Lance can also.

49ers 28 - Cardinals 24

Best Bets

• 49ers +5.5 at Cardinals Browns
• Lions +7.5 at Vikings
• Seahawks +2 vs. Rams - I don't understand how Seattle is a home underdog Thursday night against the Rams. It makes no sense.

Running Totals

• Last week: 1-2
• 2021 season total: 6-5-1
• 2020 season total: 24-27
• 2019 season total: 23-26-2

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