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Tony Camino gives his picks for player props on Wild Card Weekend 2023. Which players are going to go over their lines in the first round of the postseason?
Wild Card Weekend is finally here! After a thrilling 2023 season, we get six matchups between winning teams to start the journey to Super Bowl LVIII.
Looking to get in on the action? Let's look at player props and find some spots that appear profitable.
What player props should you take in Wild Card Weekend? How does the extreme predicted weather impact these decisions? Let's find out.
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Wild Card Weekend Player Props
Tony Pollard Over 14.5 Rushing Attempts (-110 on DraftKings)
Dallas Cowboys running back Tony Pollard has covered this line in just 47 percent of games this year, but Dallas has played in more blowouts than anybody. In home games, Pollard has covered five of eight times, getting at least 16 in every home game since November 30. He's over in each of the last four wins (DAL -7), and all five wins this year by 21 or fewer points. The only home miss since the beginning of November came against the worst-ranked pass defense in Washington.
The Packers allow 29 rushing attempts per game on average, which is 26th in the NFL. When Green Bay doesn't win in a blowout and the quarterback doesn't take away five to 10 attempts on the ground, running backs have hit in seven straight games against them. Dallas hasn't lost at home all year, they aren't likely to get blown out if they lose at all, and Dak Prescott has five or more rushes in just two home games all year. The Packers are 26th in DVOA against the run; Pollard should run all over and cover if the game stays close.
D'Andre Swift Over 59.5 Rushing Yards (-110 on BetMGM)
Philadelphia Eagles running back D'Andre Swift has covered this line in 56 percent of games this year, including the 130 yards in their meeting back in September. Swift is over this in each of the last three games and was off in Week 18 to be fresh for this playoff game. The only times he's missed this line since Week 1 were against top-five DVOA defenses (SF, PHI, NYJ) and two games against Washington, which is the worst team in the NFL against the pass. In those two games, Swift still managed to finish with 56 and 57 yards.
The Buccaneers allow the 11th-fewest yards per game to running backs this year, giving up just 81.4 per game. Tampa Bay ranks eighth in DVOA against the run, but the Eagles have the best offensive line running advantage of the week, per PFF. Jalen Hurts injured his throwing hand, while DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown are dealing with injuries as well. Philadelphia will have to lean on their run game, and Swift has been over 56 yards in 10 of 11 games with 12 or more attempts this year.
Isiah Pacheco Over 15.5 Rushing Attempts (-130 on BetMGM)
Kansas City Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco has covered this line in 50 percent of games this season, including three of his last four at home. He's averaging 16.2 attempts per game over his last five, with his only misses coming against the Raiders twice since November. After resting in Week 18, Pacheco should be a full-go, and he should be unleashed this week.
Miami allows 25.5 rush attempts per game, and they rank 16th in DVOA against the run this year. The weather in Kansas City could reach wind chills of negative 30 degrees, making it challenging for offenses to get going through the air.
The Chiefs have already faced issues throwing the ball this year, and it's unlikely to be solved in extreme weather. With the Dolphins missing several players in their front seven, the Chiefs should be able to push and let the run game set the tone. Pacheco covered with 16 in their game in Germany earlier this year. If the game stays close and Mahomes doesn't throw it 40 plus times, this should be a good play.
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