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Happy Monday, RotoBallers! I hope your Week 14 has gone well. We have an interesting Monday night matchup out in Arizona as the Patriots (6-6) venture west to take on the Cardinals (4-8). Admittedly, I've had a bit of trouble getting a read on this game, but I do have a solid idea of how I want to build my DFS lineups. Let's dig in a bit deeper.
We have been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend continues from last year into this year. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around and it's always a shame for it to come to an end. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Patriots vs. Cardinals NFL DFS showdown slate on December 12th. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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MVP/Captain Plays
Kyler Murray - QB, $16,800 (DK), $17,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 2,359 passing yards, 14 touchdowns, seven interceptions, 415 rushing yards, and three rushing touchdowns.
- 2022 Offensive Pass DVOA: -7.3% (29th), per Football Outsiders.
- 2022 Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: -14.8% (third), per Football Outsiders.
I'll start things off with Kyler Murray. Kyler isn't having a fantastic season, and he draws a tough matchup against the Patriots tonight. My model doesn't project him having any great numbers (218.08 passing yards, 1.45 touchdowns, 0.87 interceptions). So the question lies: why would I want him in my 1.5x spot?
The answer is two-fold. First of all, he finally has both DeAndre Hopkins and Marquise Brown in the lineup together. Week 12 was the first time this season both of them were in there, and Kyler threw for 191 yards and two touchdowns while rushing for another. This brings me to reason two: the Patriots will likely get pressure. I'm sure Bill Belicheck will have a spy for Kyler, but I don't think it'll matter, and I expect him to have a big day on the ground as well.
Rhamondre Stevenson - RB, $13,200 (DK), $14,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 161 rushing attempts, 734 rushing yards, 67 targets, 56 receptions, 383 receiving yards, and five touchdowns.
- 2022 Offensive Rush DVOA: -13.4% (26th), per Football Outsiders.
- 2022 Opposing Defense Rush DVOA: -2.6% (19th), per Football Outsiders.
On the other side of the field, I have to take a look at Rhamondre Stevenson. Stevenson's DraftKings price is just too cheap in this spot in my opinion, and while the Cardinals' defense leads to somewhat of a passing funnel, I have to imagine the Patriots will use Stevenson to establish the run in the absence of Damien Harris.
My model projects Stevenson to rush for 61.83 yards while adding another 27.31 yards on 3.68 receptions out of the backfield, with a 59% chance of finding the end zone. In the absence of Jakobi Meyers, I think that Stevenson will be the "safety blanket" for Mac Jones and should see an increase in targets. But more on that later...
Other Captains/MVPs: De'Andre Hopkins, Mac Jones, Hunter Henry
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DFS Flex Plays
DeAndre Hopkins - WR, $11,600 (DK), $14,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 64 targets, 49 receptions, 574 receiving yards, and three touchdowns.
- Individual Matchup (vs. Jonathan Jones): 15% targets per route, 58% catch rate, 0.28 fantasy points per route, per PFF.
We'll switch back to the Cardinals here as we take a look at a pair of pass catchers to pair with Kyler Murray. The first selection is obvious, DeAndre Hopkins. Hopkins has seen a whopping 64 targets in just six games, and while the Patriots' secondary can make life difficult for opposing passing games, I see Hopkins as virtually matchup-proof.
My model projects Hopkins to catch 6.19 of his 8.04 targets for 67.74 receiving yards and a 39% chance of scoring a touchdown. With Marquise Brown back on the other side of the field, this should open up some space for "Nuk" to go to work and take the pressure away from him being the only focus in this Cardinals passing game.
Marquise Brown - WR, $7,600 (DK), $13,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 72 targets, 49 receptions, 531 receiving yards, and three touchdowns.
- Individual Matchup (vs. Jack Jones): 15% targets per route, 53% catch rate, 0.23 fantasy points per route, per PFF.
Speaking of Marquise Brown, I'll look to pair at least one of if not both of these receivers if I'm running Kyler in the 1.5x spot tonight. After missing five weeks with a foot injury, he bounced back in a relatively big way in Week 12, catching six of eight targets for 46 yards.
While he got the majority of his work in the short areas of the field in that game against the Chargers, it was encouraging to see him get so many targets. With Arizona on bye last week and giving him an extra week of recovery, I won't be surprised to see him try to take the top off the Patriots' defense tonight. My model projects him to catch 4.37 of his 7.2 targets tonight for 52.93 receiving yards and a 29% chance of finding the end zone.
Other Flex Options: James Conner, Mac Jones
DFS Value Plays
Hunter Henry - TE, $5,600 (DK), $7,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 39 targets, 25 receptions, 336 receiving yards, and two touchdowns.
- Individual Matchup (vs. Bradley Roby): 19% targets per route, 71% catch rate, 0.26 fantasy points per route, per PFF.
While I mentioned a pair of pass catchers on the Arizona side of the ball above, I'll mention a pair of pass catchers on the New England side of the ball here. Starting with Hunter Henry, who has the best matchup of all New England pass catchers tonight with a 22.67% projected DVOA.
While I mentioned Rhamondre Stevenson being the "safety blanket" for Mac Jones, I think Hunter Henry can fill that role as well. My model projects Henry to catch 3.54 of 4.58 targets tonight for 42.13 receiving yards and a whopping 42% chance of finding the end zone. There is excellent value here.
Nelson Agholor - WR, $5,000 (DK), $8,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 35 targets, 25 receptions, 327 receiving yards, and two touchdowns.
- Individual Matchup (vs. Marco Wilson): 15% targets per route, 60% catch rate, 0.24 fantasy points per route, per PFF.
Last but not least, I'll take a look at Nelson Agholor. An important stat I found is that since Week 10, Agholor is third in target rates among all Patriots pass catchers with a 14.89% rate, falling just behind Rhamondre Stevenson (25.53%) and Jakobi Meyers (15.96%).
Obviously, with Meyers out for tonight's game, you can make the assumption that Agholor will take over at "WR1." I really do think that the combination of Stevenson, Agholor, and Henry will get the majority of the work in the passing game, with a bit of Kendrick Bourne and DeVante Parker sprinkled in.
Other Value Plays: Kendrick Bourne, Jonnu Smith, Patriots D/ST, Matt Prater
Enjoy your week and good luck everyone!
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